AC Milan – Inter Milan Tip
Who on earth would have thought at the start of the season that one of the two Champions League semi-finals in 2022/23 would be an all-Milan derby?
One could have expected such a deep push from the Nerazzurri somewhere, but from AC? After all, the city rival stayed away from the top flight for a whole decade at a stretch until recently.
Of course, an AC Milan Inter Milan tip can’t be missing at this point any more than the key data on the transfer, because I’ve given a lot of thought to which of the two traditional Italian clubs is favored more by the statistics.
Milan city duels happen every year, but Tuesday marks only the fifth in a European club competition. Incidentally, this is not the very first semifinal matchup in the Champions League.
In fact, there was already in the 2002/03 edition, when the famous away goals rule was still in force, which AC was able to take advantage of on this occasion with a 1-1 aggregate score.
However, there are also much more recent facts and figures that have been taken into account in my analysis, as well as the Bet365 bonus, all of which suggest that both sides will be leering at each other for a long time, at least in the first leg.
A zero number is therefore not excluded in my AC Milan Inter Milan tip at any time.
The bookmaker forecast
The home advantage is known to play only a minor role in this particular pairing, of course the sports betting providers know this too!
Accordingly, the AC Milan Inter Milan betting odds have also turned out to be more or less balanced.
However, you don’t necessarily have to get out the magnifying glass to see that Inter is favored with win odds of about 2.45 to 3.05 across providers, even if only slightly.
Analysis: AC Milan vs Inter Milan
Both clubs have had some hangups this season that are hard to explain and paved the way for the Neapolitans’ 3rd Scudetto in the first place. Nevertheless, neither head coach lost his job.
Nevertheless, they seem to have found their way back to success at the right time, and Simone Inzaghi in particular will be pleased with the upswing of his Nerazzurri, since a separation at the end of the season is considered very likely.
However, whether the board will be lenient if the brother of Milan legend Filippo, who came in for Antonio Conte two years ago, maintains the current course?
Inter, after all, have just celebrated four Serie A victories in a row – two of them against top teams like Lazio and AS Roma – and also secured their ticket to the Coppa Italia final by beating Juve.
I’m not in the board’s head, but apart from a somewhat abortive first half of the season, there’s not too much to blame Inzaghi for at the moment.
It’s hard for me to imagine any goal fireworks being set off in this encounter.
Therefore, I speculate on “Under 2.5 goals” and a draw, in fact there are many betting providers with PayPal that allow a combination of these two events.
Thus, the payout can be raised to a betting odds of about 3.65 by means of the Bet Builder function for an AC Milan Inter Milan tip of this kind.
Certainly not a bad value, but for this the final result must necessarily be 0:0 or 1:1.
Interesting in this context: half of the last four Milan derbies, in which the Rossoneri were awarded the nominal home right, ended with one of these two results.
There should be no three goals!
It’s very likely after all that both city rivals won’t venture out too much in the first leg, also because the facts and figures clearly suggest that a Bet3000 sports bet combined with a sub-2.5 goal tip can’t go wrong.
After all, Inter has been able to play to nil in six of its ten games in this edition of the Champions League alone.
On the other hand, AC can even go one up in this regard! The Rossoneri have conceded just one goal in their last six UCL appearances.
That was the Napoli’s “consolation goal” in the 93rd minute of the quarterfinal second leg, which came far too late to derail the Milanese from their semifinal course.
AC Milan fear for Rafael Leao!
Derbys della Madonnina have already seen three in the 2022/23 season alone, with two more to follow in the coming weeks.
Milan, meanwhile, managed to win the first encounter against their rivals, but lost the two following duels with 0:3 and 0:1 respectively.
Another defeat would be striking because it would be the first time since the 1994/95 season that the Rossoneri have lost three Milan city derbies in the same season.
The importance of Rafael Leao for AC Milan’s switching game has already been marveled at in recent duels against SSC Napoli. But now the traditional club is threatened with a loss that it cannot cope with!
Because after a possibly fatal sprint in the 2-0 win over Lazio at the weekend, the international Leao had to be replaced already in the 11th minute due to injury.
As a result, the Portuguese sat on the bench in frustration with an ice pack on his thigh – all just four days before the first leg in the top flight.
Meanwhile, Leao has not yet been announced as a withdrawal for the first or even both of the CL semifinals, rather Milan’s club doctors want to check the Portuguese’s condition by Wednesday and treat him as best they can.
My AC Milan Inter Milan tip:
For the life of me, I can’t see a preliminary decision being made on Wednesday.
With both clubs sharing the home advantage, there’s no reason to break cover, especially for the Rossoneri, who may have to do without Rafael Leao.
Incidentally, both rivals performed strongly in the league over the weekend, but Inter’s form curve seems to be on a somewhat steeper upward trajectory.
Still, I’m sticking with my AC Milan Inter Milan prediction primarily with a Under-2.5-goal tip.