Coppa Italia, Tuesday, 09.02.2022
The equivalent of the DFB Cup in Italy is the Coppa Italia – and here, too, things are slowly but surely entering the decisive phase. AC Milan and Lazio Rom meet in the quarter-finals – a treat for every football fan.
Looking at the upcoming match, I think that the Biancocelesti, as a classic cup team, will at least be able to drag the home side into extra time. I provide some good reasons for this assumption in my AC Milan Lazio tip!
After Lazio won the Coppa Italia for the last time in the 2018/19 season, they are now facing elimination in the quarter-finals for the 3rd time in a row. For with Milan, it almost couldn’t have been worse for the Biancocelesti.
However, there is a world of difference between the Rossoneri in the league and the Rossoneri in the cup. In the latter, the red-and-blacks have only won one of their last five games during the regular season.
In the last round, the Milanese almost failed to win against bottom team FC Genoa. After going behind early against the Ligurians, who had been winless for many months, extra time was needed once again to secure their place in the tournament.
While I think Milan will actually be eliminated this time! But if there is anyone the Rossoneri can rely on at the moment, it is undoubtedly Olivier Giroud, who always scores when his team need him most.
The Frenchman’s late equaliser against Genoa saved the Rossnoeri from going into extra time in the first place.
At the weekend against Inter, he even turned the game around 180° with a double strike in the final quarter of an hour – final score in the Derby della Madonnina: 2 to 1 for AC.
So if Milan get into trouble again, they will increasingly look for Giroud – especially in the absence of Ibrahimovic. And, that the northern Italians will be in trouble on Wednesday is seen as inevitable!
Lazio have finally developed under Maurizio Sarri in the way the board had envisaged when they signed the successful coach at the start of the season. The final blow came at the weekend!
In a 3-0 victory over Fiorentina, one of the best attacking duos in Europe scored twice. Ciro Immobile and Milinkovic Savic have already scored 26 first league goals together – in the European top five, only two other striker pairs have been more successful so far.
Incidentally, the capitals have lost only one of their last eight competitive games – and that only against leaders Inter! So the visitors certainly have the quality to defeat Milan. But one point in particular is crucial for my AC Milan Lazio tip!
Lazio simply attach much more importance to the Coppa Italia than AC Milan. The latter is in the fight for the Scudetto and already considers participation in the top flight a sure thing.
The Biancocelesti, on the other hand, could well miss out on the international places due to the strong competition.
In this case, winning the cup – or possibly even just reaching the final – would at least entitle them to participate in the Europa League.
Both clubs have a Serie A match to play just a few days later. Many “Tifosi” will be asking themselves whether the Rossoneri are actually willing to go beyond their pain threshold in view of the tense personnel situation they are currently facing.
On top of that, Milan has had mostly bad experiences with Lazio in the Coppa! Since the 2014/2015 season, there have already been three cup clashes between the two clubs – and AC have not won any of them in the regular season.
In fact, I think the probability of another extra time in this duel is extremely high. I would also advise against betting on a victory for Milan within 90 minutes because the odds do not excite me at all.
Personally, however, I think Lazio have almost the same chances to win.
The small but crucial difference between these two betting options is that a Biancocelesti win within 90 minutes would result in an approximate quadrupling of the original bet amount!
Conclusion: We can expect a very close affair. However, a couple of crucial factors contribute to the assumption that the Biancocelesti are quite capable of extra time or even a victory.
On the one hand, Milan have not won any of their last three cup duels against the capitals in regular time, and on the other hand, progressing in the cup is simply worth a bit more to the visitors.
The Rossoneri, meanwhile, seem to be developing a similar dependence on Oliver Giroud as they did on the currently injured Zlatan Ibrahimovic! I’m also not 100% convinced by the red and black’s enthusiasm for the Coppa.
My AC Milan Lazio Roma tip is therefore: Double Chance X2!