AC Milan – SSC Napoli Tip
In the quarter-finals of the Champions League, it comes to the Italian duel between AC Milan and SSC Napoli. Accordingly, both teams know each other inside out and will hardly be able to provide any tactical surprises.
However, the starting position takes on a very special note when you consider that Milan and Napoli only met in the league at the beginning of April.
As I will show in my Milan Napoli tip, one should not be misled by the clear 4-0 victory of AC.
After all, the balance of power within Serie A speaks a completely different language and makes the weak Neapolitan performance against Milan appear under a very special light.
Of course, in the course of my analysis, it is not least the previous performances in the top division that come to the fore.
For here, too, there are numerous statistics that clearly speak against a repeat of Milan’s walk.
In my Milan Napoli prediction, I rather assume that the two Serie A teams will have an extremely interesting exchange, which will bring goals to light on both sides without turning into a real goal spectacle.
To classify the question of favourites, however, we first look at the classic 1×2 odds of our betting providers.
The bookmaker forecast
The bookmakers cannot agree on an actual favourite. Although top bookmakers like Bwin see SSC Napoli spread with slight advantages.
However, the odds for an away win climb above the 2.50 mark. A Milan win is listed only marginally higher at odds just below 3.00. The odds for a draw are correspondingly low.
Without prejudging my favourite result tip, I can already reveal at this point that the draw is my preferred three-way bet for the duel.
Analysis: AC Milan vs Napoli
The math could be so simple: Anyone who sweeps SSC Napoli out of the stadium 4-0 this season is bound to be one of the absolute title favourites in Serie A and the top flight – or is it?
The fact is that AC Milan are currently defending fourth place in the domestic league with a last-ditch effort and are already 23 points behind league leaders Napoli.
The title train has long since left the station. And in the Champions League, too, the results this season are quite ambivalent.
On the one hand, they are in the quarter-finals. On the other hand, they have only managed three wins in the rather weak Group E and did not exactly cover themselves with glory in the last 16 against a struggling Tottenham Hotspur (1:0, 0:0).
That’s why I don’t think Milan will win at home against Napoli. But I think Milan can score at least one goal. After all, with 48 goals scored, they are the second best offensive team in the league.
SSC Napoli’s 4-0 defeat at the hands of AC Milan did not leave much of an impression. For one thing, Luciano Spalletti’s team won the following league match against Lecce 2-1.
On the other hand, the Neapolitans can simply afford to shift down a gear in Serie A. With a 16-point lead over “chaser” Lazio Roma, the Scudetto is a mere formality.
In any case, SSC is riding a wave of success this season. In the Champions League, they managed to pick up 15 out of a possible 18 points in the group phase, scoring 20 goals in the process.
In the round of 16, they didn’t give Eintracht Frankfurt a chance (2:0, 3:0). I therefore see Napoli as much more of the favourites against Milan than the betting companies do, but I pay tribute to the home advantage for the Milanese.
Accordingly, I refrain from betting on an away win and “only” assume that SSC Napoli will also get their goal at the Giuseppe Meazza Stadium.
Quote analysis
In addition to the even odds on 1×2 betting, the situation is also extremely tricky on goal betting.
In fact, with odds around 1.85 for a game with over 2.5 goals, the big betting companies do not expect an above-average scoring game. At the same time, however, the odds for a “under 2.5 goals” only climb to a 1.90.
In this respect, too, the bookmakers shrug their shoulders. The result bets are interesting. Here, the focus is on the 1:1 with odds of around 6.40.
Not only is this result compatible with my main tip “both teams score”, but overall I could not imagine a more suitable outcome for the duel.
As a risk tip, a 1:1 result bet is truly worth a look. In this context, I can also recommend a half-time bet.
With odds of around 2.00, a “draw at half-time” is undoubtedly one of the most profitable bets for the Italian clash.
Napoli feel comfortable away from home!
Of course, the away record of SSC Napoli is still worth a look. After all, the Neapolitans have won a proud 13 of 15 away games in Serie A and scored 33 goals in the process.
It fits into the picture that in the top flight they won convincingly against Glasgow Rangers (3:0), Ajax Amsterdam (6:1) and in Frankfurt (2:0).
The only defeat came at the hands of Liverpool FC (0:2). It should be noted, however, that this defeat came on the last day of group play, when the Italians were no longer under any pressure to succeed.
No home wins far and wide!
The first thing that stands out in a direct comparison is that AC Milan are quite clearly ahead.
After 156 duels, Milan have 60 wins, 49 draws and 47 victories for SCC Napoli.
This season, as already mentioned, Milan managed a surprising 4-0 away win. The first-round encounter, however, had gone to the Neapolitans with 2-1.
Striking: The respective home team has hardly had any reason to celebrate in the recent league duels.
In fact, the last six Serie A encounters have produced exclusively away victories.
The last home win dates back to the 2018/19 season. Napoli won 3-2 at the then-unnamed Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
It’s hard to believe: AC Milan’s last home win against Napoli was over eight years in the past. Milan won 2-0 in December 2014.
Overall, however, Milan’s home record against Napoli is positive. In 78 home games against Napoli, there have only been 18 defeats. With 27 draws, 33 victories were achieved. The goal difference also speaks volumes in Milan’s favour (123:79).
Incidentally, this is the first time the two teams have ever met in the Champions League. Overall, it is the first European Cup duel between Milan and Napoli.
My Milan Napoli tip:
I don’t expect a similarly one-sided game as in Milan’s recent 4-0 win over Napoli in the quarter-final first leg of the Champions League.
Rather, it is likely that Napoli will once again show their true colours and be able to defy Milan at the Giuseppe Meazza Stadium as well.
Thus, an extremely close top match is to be expected, in which both offensives will create few but top-class scoring opportunities. Accordingly, I expect both teams to score at least one goal.
My Milan Napoli tip is therefore: Both teams will score!
