World Cup Qualifiers, Friday, 17.11.2023

Fittingly, I have written a bold Argentina Uruguay betting tip, which is perhaps not so bold considering how impressive the visitors have already been in their last World Cup qualifying match.

Strictly speaking, the two nations should not have to fight each other bitterly, as there are enough starting places for the 2026 World Cup, which will be bigger than ever before.

However, the rivalry between the two South American countries is too great to give next Friday’s match the status of a perceived friendly.

Especially as the Uruguayans want to prove to themselves and the world that the sensational 2:0 victory over Brazil last matchday was more than just a bad day for the Selecao! Now they want to beat the world champions too!

I was initially surprised that national coach Marcelo Bielsa left the two Italy legionnaires Matias Vecino (Lazio) and Nahitan Nandez (Cagliari) at home.

However, the Uruguayan midfield is so strong with players such as Rodrigo Betancour (Tottenham), Federico Valverde (Real Madrid), Manuel Uguarte (PSG) and Giorgian de Arrascaeta (Flamengo) that it was not possible to bring them all in.

Even the enfant terrible and crowd favorite Luis Suarez will be in the squad at the tender age of 36. Nevertheless, the visitors are also well-stocked in this position with young superstars such as Darwin Nunez (Liverpool) and Facundo Pellistri (ManUtd).

In short, I think Argentina are on the verge of their first defeat since November 22, 2023, when they lost 2-1 to Saudi Arabia in their World Cup opener, causing almost tumultuous scenes on the betting markets.

Who would have thought at the time that the “Albiceleste” would go on to become world champions and win 14 games in a row to date – including extra time? The last eight even without conceding a goal!

It is clear that the world champions undoubtedly have the best team in the world, but I maintain that the “fire” is burning on the visitors’ side. They will be looking to win on Argentinian soil for the first time since 1937

Could the Uruguayans benefit from the absence of some key players? Probably not, as none of the players not named by Lionel Scaloni who have featured in the last 12 months have played more than 24 international matches.

Although Juan Foyth of Villarreal and Joaquin Correa (Marseille) had to withdraw due to injury, they would hardly have been entitled to a place in the starting eleven even if they had been in full physical condition.

With a few exceptions, the starting eleven will therefore be more or less the same as the one that made Argentina world champions in Qatar around a year ago. Even Messi could be activated due to his non-participation in the MLS play-offs.

Uruguay, in my opinion, will try to play – and win – the game in the same manner as the previous one against the Brazilians.

With a possession percentage of just 41% and an xG value of 0.62, the Uruguayans stood deep, closed down the spaces and then occasionally launched dangerous counter-attacks.

But anyone who thinks that the Brazilians were just unlucky is wrong! The “Selecao”, for their part, had an xG value of a microscopic 0.28 and were therefore offered no space to develop

It is precisely because the Uruguayans’ strength lies in their defense that I, as a bettor, would want to take advantage of offers from good sports betting providers with a sub-2.5-goal bet.

Because we can expect an extremely tough game that could easily end 2 times at 0-0 – once at half-time and another time after the final whistle.

Conclusion: This will be a very tough affair, and a victory for Argentina, as expected by the sports betting providers at odds of around 1.53, is by no means a foregone conclusion.

Uruguay already made life difficult for the Brazilians a few weeks ago with their grueling style of play and were able to thwart them on several occasions.

Sooner or later, the Albiceleste will lose another game – why not on the visit of the hungry visitors, who are hoping for a win in their neighboring country for the first time in a long time?

My Argentina Uruguay prediction: DC X2 & Under 2.5 goals