Serie A, Sunday, 01/10/2023
In my present Atalanta Bergamo Juventus tip, I will refer to numbers, data and odds that might encourage the reader to make a well-considered draw bet.
Both clubs are, in my eyes, at best candidates for the last available spot for the top flight and will be engaged in a fierce football battle that could easily result in a 0-0, 1-1 or even a 2-2 draw.
From the start of the season, many experts no longer considered Juventus to be among the select group of possible favourites for the 2023/24 Scudetto.
But no one would have thought that they would go down like that against Sassuolo Calcio a week ago and, to make matters worse, that they would score such a colossal own goal as the one they scored for a final score of 2:4.
This was Juve’s sixth first league away game in the 2023 calendar year. Since the turn of the millennium, there have only been more in one other calendar year – and that was 2010 (7).
Good for the fans that Juve won 1-0 against Lecce during the week. But there can be no talk of a turnaround at this point, as the Bianconeri never dominated the game at any point.
In fact, for the first time in the 2023/24 season, I see the Old Lady’s performance and that of their upcoming opponents from Bergamo at the same level.
Atalanta are not among the immediate favourites for the title either, but have made impressive progress after two years away from international action. During the week, they even managed an important 1-0 win over Hellas Verona.
In sports betting, you occasionally have to speculate on a draw! Especially when – as is the case in this match – the statistical probability of a draw is extremely high.
In fact, three of the last four duels between Atalanta and Juventus – including the test match in August – ended either with a 0:0, 1:1 or even a spectacular 3:3.
The odds of around 3.50 offered by Bet3000 for Sunday in this context justify the risk of placing such a bet in any case. Especially since draw bets usually promise lavish payouts anyway.
A victory for Bergamo? I’m afraid I’ll have to pass on that one. As a die-hard La Dea fan, I have noticed that Gasperini’s record in direct duels has improved significantly since he took over as coach.
Before Gasperini took over as coach, Atalanta had lost 12 Serie A games in a row against Juve, but since then they have lost only 4 of their last 14 matches (2 wins, 8 draws).
Nevertheless, at home – and this is something you have to let sink in – Bergamo, even under their “saviour”, have only won one of their last 18 first division games against the Bianconeri (5 draws, 12 defeats).
Just because I would rate my favourite team’s chances of success in this match as relatively low, doesn’t mean they can’t take the lead first.
After all, Atalanta have always been able to score the first goal of the game in six of their seven competitive matches in the 2023/24 season.
The bookmakers also suspect that the points could be shared at the Gewiss Stadium on Sunday.
The odds on both teams to win the match are around 2.55, with the Bergamo side a tad more likely to win – but it’s really only a microscopic difference that can be ignored!
Conclusion: Both coaches and teams have enormous respect for each other, which is why I wouldn’t be surprised if the ball is played more crosswise than vertically on Sunday.
A nil draw at the break is an absolutely realistic scenario, which would suit this match well.
Juve have lost quality in the 2023/24 season – also due to the imposed sanctions – so that in an even match I also logically assume an equally even final result.
My Atalanta Bergamo Juventus tip is: Draw!
