FC Bayern – Augsburg Tip
The big hurdle in the Champions League round of 16 “Paris St. Germain” have mastered the Bavarians. In the second leg against PSG on Wednesday, the Munich team were the better team, especially in the second half, and in the end deserved to win 2:0.
However, the Munich team does not have time to breathe. The next tasks await them in the Bundesliga. Thanks to a great 2023 series, BVB has become a serious contender for the title here.
Dortmund are currently missing out on first place only because of the worse goal difference. On the other hand, the Munich team can’t afford to lose any more points in the league. They have already dropped too many points this year.
After the success in the top flight, Julian Nagelsmann can now take it easy for a while. But the reigning Bayern coach certainly doesn’t want to go down in club history as the coach who came away empty-handed for the first time after ten titles in a row.
On Saturday, Bayern welcome FC Augsburg to their home Allianz Arena. The record champions still have a score to settle with the Bavarian Swabians after the defeat in the first leg.
If you believe the betting odds, nothing stands in the way of a successful revenge. I opt for the bet “Under 4.5 goals” with my Bayern Augsburg betting odds of 1.65 at Betano.
The betting provider’s forecast?
The starting position for the Bayern Augsburg forecast from the bookmakers’ point of view is of course clear. On the one hand, there is the league leader, who will be playing in front of their own fans.
The visitors, on the other hand, are “only” in 13th place and have recently had major problems away from home. Thus, FCA is the heavy underdog with win odds averaging 17.9.
On the other hand, a win for the home side is only rewarded with average odds of 1.14.
Analysis: Bayern vs Augsburg
In the end, Bayern went without conceding twice against Paris St. Germain and deservedly prevailed against the “most expensive team in the world” in two games.
In the duel against PSG, it was also evident that the German record champions are much better equipped across the board than the French champions, who have a large gap behind Messi and Mbappé.
The Munich team has also proven that it can perform at its best in important games. The fact that the record champion currently has the most expensive squad in the club’s history also fits in with this.
But in the league, there is often no sign of this quality. After 23 match days, the FCB has only 14 wins. Time and again there are inexplicable fluctuations in performance and results.
So last weekend against VfB. Here, the visitors were already clearly 2:0 ahead. But there was nothing to be seen of the once so feared self-confidence and footballing looseness.
Instead, coach Julian Nagelsmann’s men were pomaded, surprisingly unconfident and uninspired. In the end, they even had to tremble for the victory they thought was safe.
With 66 goals, the Bavarians still have the best offence in the league. No other team has conceded less than 22 goals. The two defeats of the season were away from home.
The only players missing against Augsburg are the injured Neuer and Hernandez. Pavard, Mané, Cancelo, Gnabry or Sané are candidates for the starting eleven.
Bayern have always scored at home in 51 games. FCA, on the other hand, have only scored six goals in 11 visiting matches at the Allianz Arena and have gone away empty-handed six times.
In the last 6 league encounters between the two teams, only once have more than 3 goals been scored. For the bet “Over 3.5 goals”, however, there is an average odds of 1.59 in the Bayern vs Augsburg preview.
On the other hand, the “No” option in the “Both teams score” betting market is also just behind with an average of 1.95. A clear victory for the Munich team would certainly also be an option.
The Fuggerstädter are currently without a win in seven away games and have always lost their last three away games with at least a two-goal difference.
Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting should be on the list of goal scorers. The Bayern striker scored his 10th goal of the season against VfB and was also successful against PSG.
FCA leave relegation battle behind
Last weekend, Augsburg celebrated their fourth home win in a row with a 2-1 win over Werder. However, this three-goal win had been rather flattering in the end.
The home side had invited the opponent again and again with many simple mistakes. But the Bremen team was not efficient enough in front of goal and did not accept the gifts.
So this time, a good fighting performance was enough for three points, despite a weak footballing performance. With an eight-point lead over the red zone, FCA have put themselves in a comfortable situation.
The Fuggerstädter owe their reassuring starting position after the 23rd matchday almost exclusively to good results at home. In front of their own fans, they won all their home games in 2023.
Great at home – bad away
The team has lost all four away games in the new year. Coach Enrico Maassen’s team has been waiting for a three-pointer for seven away trips. In that time, they have only picked up one point.
Those responsible cannot explain the discrepancy between the home victories and the away defeats in the new year themselves. The defence also shows two faces.
In this calendar year, they have conceded one goal at home and 12 away from home. Since FCA have collected a total of 10 points on their opponents’ pitch, they are still in 11th place in the away rankings.
Bayern are missing the injured Uduokhai, Hahn, Rexhbecaj and Strobl. Berisha is expected to return to the starting eleven after muscular problems.
After 57 derbies against Augsburg, Bayern are actually clearly ahead in the direct comparison with 39 wins to 12 defeats. However, they have lost two of the last three duels against FCA.
Both defeats, however, came in the Fuggerstadt. At home, the Munich team only lost one home match against Augsburg. In May 2015, when they had already been crowned champions, they lost 0:1.
Other than that, the home record of 9 wins and 1 draw with 28:6 goals clearly speaks for the FCB. Julian Nagelsmann also has a good record against the Fuggerstädter in his coaching career.
The coach has 12 victories. Nagelsmann has not celebrated more successes against any other team. After the 0:1 defeat in the first leg in 2022/23, Bayern won 5:2 at home against their neighbours in the second cup round.
My Bayern Augsburg tip:
FCA don’t really feel comfortable at the Allianz Arena. In addition, Augsburg haven’t really got anything going away from home recently. So Bayern are rightly the clear favourites at home on Saturday.
But you shouldn’t expect a gala performance or a shooting match from the Munich team. If the record champions show their Bundesliga face, it will once again only be enough for a narrow victory.
So a bet on few goals is the most likely option for me. My Bayern Augsburg prediction is: Under 4.5 goals!