Bundesliga relegation forecast 2023: Who will be relegated?

While there is a race for the championship title at the top, the lower half of the table will be about leg-deep survival in the Bundesliga.

Almost half the Bundesliga is currently embroiled in the fight against relegation!

From Schalke to Hertha BSC and Stuttgart to Bochum. Even 1. FC Köln is now considered by some Bundesliga relegation forecasts to be a candidate for the relegation zone.

Here we give a compact overview of the Bundesliga relegation candidates in 2023 – who will have to tremble to stay in the league and who has a good chance of avoiding relegation.

Relegation Prediction for Schalke and Bremen

Usually, promoted teams are automatically among the candidates for the relegation places. Is this also the case with Werder Bremen and Schalke 04?

If you believe the Bundesliga relegation predictions and the betting odds of the bookmakers, then that also applies to this duo. Big name or not.

What’s more, Bremen and Schalke are in 16th and 17th place in the squad market table – and thus fully in the relegation zone. Only Bochum – measured by the market value of the squad – has a worse team in the second half of the Bundesliga than the two prominent promoted teams.

This was also evident in the course of the season up to the World Cup break: Schalke was last, Bochum second to last. Werder were able to surprise and paused in 9th place.

Schalke and Werder: Statistics give hope

Schalke are hoping for an interesting statistic as second division champions:

The last time a team that was promoted as champions of the 2. Bundesliga was relegated again posthaste was in 2013. That was Greuther Fürth. Since then, all second-division champions have stayed in the Bundesliga in the following season.

But this series could now come to an end. Not only because of the sporting situation, there are a few figures in the Bundesliga relegation forecasts that make it look bad for Schalke to stay in the league:

The Königsblauen are the 19th club to have 9 or fewer points after 15 matchdays since the introduction of the three-point rule in 1995. Of the previous 18 teams, 15 were relegated. That’s a whopping 83 per cent! This means that Schalke has already been relegated by more than 80 per cent…

The new coach, Thomas Reis, is still expected to make the miracle possible.

His hope: Goal scorer Simon Terrodde, who is immortalised in German football history as the best second division goal scorer of all time, should finally make an impact in the top flight of German football.

Werder Bremen qualified for the Bundesliga as runners-up in the second division last season.

The Weser is set for a tough fight for survival right from the start. In the Bundesliga relegation predictions, the Green-Whites are right in the thick of things from the start instead of just being there.

Werder have been convincing so far this season. In addition, the “promotion statistics” could also speak in favour of the Bremen team.

In the recent past, the majority of promoted teams have managed to stay in the league. In the 2019/20 season, for example, this was achieved by Bielefeld and Stuttgart, as well as Bochum in the previous season.

This shows: Three of the last four promoted teams managed to stay in the league in the following season. Due to their squad, Bremen certainly have the quality to avoid being relegated again – especially Niclas Füllkrug.

Bundesliga relegation forecast by market value

  • 18th VfL Bochum: €46.63m.
  • 17. Schalke: € 60.45 million
  • 16. Bremen: € 73.05 million
  • 15. Cologne: € 96.03 million
  • 14. Hertha BSC: € 97.20 million
  • 13. Augsburg: € 111.15 million
  • 12. Mainz 05: € 113.20 million
  • 11. Union Berlin: € 117.90 million
  • 10. VfB Stuttgart: €123.35 million

Bundesliga relegation forecast for Hertha BSC

Hertha BSC only narrowly escaped relegation to the 2. Bundesliga last season. In the relegation against Hamburger SV, the worst-case scenario was just averted.

The consequence: a new start with a new coach. Sandro Schwarz replaced saviour Felix Magath.

In the relegation predictions of the best football betting providers, however, the “Old Lady” is far from being cured. This is shown not only by the relegation predictions of German football experts, but also by the Bundesliga relegation betting odds.

Hertha can be found among the relegation candidates before the start of the season. The reasons are obvious: the squad has not really been strengthened and Schwarz has not been able to pull off a miracle since the summer break, although beginnings of improvement could be seen time and again.

But he should, if you look at the defensive numbers of last season.

  •  71 goals conceded – only 1990/91 had more.
  •  17 goals conceded per head – league high.
  •  23 goals conceded from standards – second highest

Although these stats have improved so far this season, the Berliners are back in the bottom third of the table.

This is why VfB Stuttgart are a relegation candidate

With every season forecast for Bundesliga relegation, there is an often-strained saying: The second year is always the hardest.

In a way, that has come true: Bielefeld slipped down a level in second-to-last place and Stuttgart were only able to jump from the relegation spot to the saving bank and 15th place on the last matchday.

Now a difficult third year awaits the Swabians. Stuttgart are among the favourites for relegation in all Bundesliga relegation forecasts for this season.

The Stuttgart team already struggled for long stretches last season. And it was the same this season until the World Cup break. After the “autumn run-through”, the Swabians spent the winter in the relegation place.

The warning example could be Arminia Bielefeld. The “Alm-Kicker” finished the 2020/21 season in 15th place. Like Stuttgart in 2022, relegation followed one year later.

To prevent this from happening, a new coach, Bruno Labbadia, was brought in during the winter break. He is supposed to save VfB from relegation – although the Bundesliga relegation forecasts and betting odds still expect this…

Will Bochum remain the “un-relegated” team?

Bochum are considered to be unlegendable in fan circles. However, this thesis has already been disproved six times. In the past season, however, this was achieved in a commanding manner with a 13th place finish. And 2023?

Many Bundesliga relegation forecasts nevertheless expect a tough year for the Revierklub.

According to the statistics, Bochum has a 50% chance of staying in the league. In the last 10 years, 7 out of 14 teams promoted in the previous year were relegated the following year after successfully staying in the league. The 50% quota also existed last season – Bielelfeld went down, Stuttgart stayed up.

How will Bochum fare this season? The VfL players spend the winter break in 17th place in the table and thus in a relegation position.

But with new coach Thomas Letsch, the aim is to avoid the drop into the second division. A difficult undertaking, as the VfL squad is the weakest of all 18 Bundesliga teams in terms of market value.

Bundesliga relegation forecast: Will the Hoffenheim fairytale end?

2008 TSG Hoffenheim were promoted to the Bundesliga with Ralf Rangnick as coach. The Hoffenheim Bundesliga fairytale began.

Now, 15 seasons later and an interim Champions League participation, the 2022/23 season could be the last chapter for the time being.

TSG is in serious turmoil. Hoffenheim is stuck in the relegation zone and almost every Bundesliga relegation forecast sees Hoffenheim at least in the relegation spot at the end.

What speaks in favour of Hoffenheim staying in the relegation zone is the quality of the squad. Measured by market value, TSG would be a European Cup contender. But since things are probably not right in the team, the focus must be on the bottom.

Bundesliga relegation forecast for Augsburg & Mainz

For two clubs that have been in the Bundesliga for a very long time, it could be back to the second Bundesliga this season.

That’s how the Bundesliga relegation forecasts predicted it even before last season. In the case of FCA, this has almost come true. Augsburg just about scraped the curve with 14th place.

However, FC Augsburg could also be due soon. In 2019 and 2020, the Fuggerstädter were both 15th, and in 2021 and 2022 they were 14th. Will that work out in 2023?

Mainz, on the other hand, had next to nothing to do with the relegation battle in pre-season. Coach Bo Svensson even led the Nullfünfer to the top half of the table. At the winter break this season, Mainz are in 10th place, although they are only five points clear of the relegation zone.

However, as there are many worse teams, it can be assumed that Mainz 05 will only appear on the fringes of the Bundesliga relegation predictions this season as well.

Bundesliga relegation prediction: Will it hit a “big one”?

Almost every season, a club appears in the Bundesliga basement that you didn’t really expect beforehand. Usually it is a team with a “big” name.

Last season, there were several teams in the danger zone for months that were not expected to be there: Hertha BSC, Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Wolfsburg.

The trio managed to save themselves. But who will slip into the relegation zone this time? Which team, which has other ambitions, must tremble this time to stay in the relegation zone?

Gladbach and Wolfsburg have signed Daniel Farke and Niko Kovac, two coaches who are supposed to keep their clubs out of trouble and lead them into the European Cup regions.

This raises the question of which big name could get into trouble?

Since the beginning of the season, many Bundesliga relegation forecasts have named 1. FC Köln as the team to be relegated in 2023.

Despite all the European Cup euphoria, the Effzeh fans should also be a little scared. The last time Cologne made it into the European Cup, that was in 2017, the cathedral city slipped into the bottom of the table in the following season and could not find its way out.

Does this make 1. FC Köln one of the candidates for relegation from the Bundesliga?

It might be a close call for Bayer Leverkusen. The Werkself has had a poor season so far and is only in 12th place over the winter. The gap to the relegation places is only four points before the season resumes.