1st FC Cologne – Bayern Munich betting tips
The championship will be decided on the last Bundesliga matchday. The good news for FC Bayern: With a win against 1. FC Köln, the South Germans could still overtake BVB and celebrate their title defence once again.
The bad news: If Borussia win their match against Mainz, the Munich team will only be left with the vice-championship in any case.
Of course, this special situation plays a major role in my Cologne Bayern betting tips. In addition, the Cathedral City team’s style of play suggests that a high-scoring encounter will develop on Saturday afternoon.
All in all, I don’t expect Bayern to overrun a defenceless 1. FC Köln.
The recent Cologne statistics rather point out that the FCB will meet an in-form opponent who wants to say goodbye to the summer break with an excellent performance in front of their home crowd.
Accordingly, I have also refrained from a classic 1×2 bet and put the focus on a goal bet. In fact, I don’t think it’s entirely out of the question that the Effzeh will hold Bayern to a high-scoring draw.
I therefore consider my “over 3.5 goals” bet as a safety-first approach. Goals seem guaranteed in any case – but not a Munich success against 1. FC Köln.
At the beginning of my analysis, however, I first take a look at the odds offered by our betting providers.
The betting providers’ forecast?
The bookmakers don’t really paint a surprising picture. For top provider Bet365, Thomas Tuchel’s team goes into the encounter as the heavy favourites.
The odds for an away win do not even climb above the 1.40 mark. A win for Cologne, on the other hand, comes with impressive odds of 9.25 on average.
For a home game of Cologne, this is almost a curious value. Of course, a draw also has well above-average odds. You don’t see 6.10 for a draw in a Bundesliga match very often either.
Analysis: Cologne vs Bayern
At first glance, of course, the odds are understandable. While Bayern want to make the most of their last chance at the championship and inevitably have to play to win, there is absolutely nothing at stake for 1. FC Köln in mid-table.
The truth is, however, that the Effzeh have been in the bottom of the table for some time now and have not let themselves down recently.
In the last eight games, Cologne has conceded only one defeat. The most recent home game against Berlin Hertha was a goal party (5:2). Goals are a good keyword overall.
In the past few games, things have been quite turbulent for the Cologne team. In six of the last seven Cologne games, both teams scored at least one goal each.
In four of those games, Cologne scored at least two goals each. The rather wild approach to the game is also reflected in the goal difference (48:52). Accordingly, I trust 1. FC Köln to score against FC Bayern as well.
Munich goals in Cologne I expect as well, of course. Those who have 90 goals on the season and are doomed to win will certainly not go empty-handed on the last Bundesliga matchday. However, I don’t believe in a truly superior performance by Bayern.
The noise around Säbener Straße is simply too loud these days for the Munich team to be able to concentrate 100% on the final game in the title race. In any case, the latest statistics show profound problems.
The FCB has won only three of its last eight competitive matches. Only against the basement children from Berlin (2:0) and Schalke (6:0) did they remain without conceding a goal. In three of these games, they even conceded three goals each.
Defensively, the South Germans are by no means in top form and are also likely to concede one or two goals in Cologne.
All in all, in view of these statistics, a result like a 4:2 for Bayern seems much more realistic to me than a minimalist 1:0.
Quote analysis
The odds, not only of the German betting providers, are in the same vein. Thus, a “Over 2.5 goals” sometimes does not even make it over the 1.30 mark.
The “Over 3.5 goals” I chose is also below average, but still offers a positive value given the starting position. The odds on the classic “both teams score” are also interesting.
The value of 1.50 is exceeded by the vast majority of providers. Here, too, the bet is in a recommendable range in my opinion.
If you want to take a little more risk and trust the Cologne team to play on an equal footing, you can also consider a draw at half-time. With odds of just under 3.00, you are undoubtedly in a very good position.
As a risk bet, you can also bet on the result. The 2:2 is listed with an average of 18.0 and is worth considering, especially for a small stake.
Bayern also weaken away!
Of course, it is interesting to take a look at FC Bayern’s away performances so far. On the one hand, the Munich team is still ahead of BVB at the top of the away table before the last matchday.
On the other hand, their record of nine wins, three draws and four defeats is by no means outstanding. Fittingly: In the last three away games, Bayern managed only one narrow victory (2:1 in Bremen).
However, it is also true that Bayern will not be facing a home power in the form of 1. FC Köln.
In fact, the Effzeh is only eleventh in the home table and has already suffered five defeats at home. Nevertheless, in the last four home games, there has only been one defeat.
Cologne’s horror record against FCB!
With all betting considerations, it should of course not be forgotten that 1. FC Köln has been one of Bayern’s favourite opponents, especially in the recent past.
The FCB has won nine of the past ten Bundesliga duels. The only point gained in this period, however, came in the last meeting between the two sides.
On the 17th matchday of the current season, the Cathedral City side drew 1-1 at the Allianz Arena.
Overall, the balance is clearly in favour of FC Bayern. After 104 matches played, the statistics stand at 55 Munich victories, 24 draws and 25 Cologne successes.
The Effzeh’s last Bundesliga victory against Bayern was more than ten years ago. In the 2010/11 season, it was enough for a 3:2 win at home. At that time, still coach in Munich: Louis van Gaal.
Cologne’s home record against the FCB is not convincing in its entirety.
Of 50 home games, only 15 were won. With nine draws, 26 games were lost.
It is striking that there have been quite a few goals between the two teams recently.
In six of the last eight matches, the bet “Over 3.5 goals” would have led to success. In addition, both teams have scored at least one goal each in five of the last six matches.
My Cologne Bayern tip:
Can you imagine Bayern winning by a landslide? Certainly! However, since an open exchange of goals at eye level is not out of the question, a goal bet simply makes the most sense.
Bayern’s strong offensive and Cologne’s rather wild approach to the game suggest a high-scoring encounter.
As shown, the statistics of the direct comparison also point in this direction. Basically, the tactical fetters between the cathedral cities and the Munich team should be limited on Saturday afternoon.
Whether this match will ultimately decide the championship is hard to predict, as the focus in this respect must first be on Dortmund.
However, the question of the new champion has no influence on my Köln Bayern tip. I expect over 3.5 goals in the match either way!
