ATP Finals in Turin, group stage, 3rd matchday, Thursday, 16.11.2023

The defending champion, the six-time champion, is faltering! Novak Djokovic has yet to show his best side at the ATP Finals in Turin and must now avoid an unforeseen exit in the group stage.

It’s all to play for on Thursday, his opponent is the one who has only traveled to northern Italy as a substitute

My Djokovic Hurkacz betting tip now focuses on both players equally and is of course not only based on history.

Between 2015 and 2021, the ATP Finals had five different winners, and indeed: Novak Djokovic’s name did not appear on the list! So the Serbian missed out on the final title of the year for several years before it finally happened again in 2022.

He outplayed the entire world elite with victories against Stefanos Tsitsipas, Andrey Rublev, Daniil Medvedev, Taylor Fritz and Casper Ruud, dropping just a single set. Logically, he had hoped for an identical tournament for 2023.

However, it is already clear that this will not happen. While he was just successful against Holger Rune 7-6, 6-7, 6-3, the second match showed that the Djoker had obviously brought a certain amount of fatigue with him to Turin

The world number 1 lost 5-7, 7-6, 6-7 against Jannik Sinner, an Italian in absolute top form. So Djokovic was not there in the decisive moments and knew why he lost.

19 aces and 82% of points won on his first serve – the Serbian was actually convincing across the board with these figures. However, he allowed Sinner to break twice, while he only managed one hit in this respect himself.

After 19 wins in a row, he once again experienced the feeling of losing and now he has no choice but to hit back with a win on Thursday. He had actually already prepared for Stefanos Tsitsipas as his opponent

However, as Tsitsipas had to withdraw due to injury, Hubert Hurkacz will now take his place; the substitute had traveled to Turin anyway. This should only be an advantage for Djokovic, as he has a first-class record against the Pole.

Six matches, six wins, everything has gone according to plan so far! This year, on the hallowed turf of Wimbledon, the match was a close one, Djokovic’s 7-6, 7-6, 5-7, 6-4 was incredibly close.

So although the direct comparison is clearly in the Serb’s favor, he should be warned. Bet365 takes a slightly different view, with average odds of 1.12 to 6.00 suggesting a clear result

For Hubert Hurkacz, Thursday’s performance will of course be a very special one, as he never really expected to be challenged. Stefanos Tsitsipas’ elimination means that it is now his turn.

Two years ago, he took part in the finals for the first and so far only time, at that time regularly, and suffered three straight defeats against Daniil Medvedev, Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev.

Ultimately, however, one thing is clear: it’s all about the Golden Pineapple for him, a semi-final is no longer possible for Hurkacz. So what will the sporting motivation of the world number 9 be like?

Hurkacz secured two titles in October and also attracted attention with his quarter-final in Paris. So the form is right, but now he has to somehow manage to ignore the fact that nothing is at stake anymore

My Djokovic Hurkacz tip

One can lose everything, the other has nothing to gain! When Novak Djokovic and Hubert Hurkacz meet on Thursday, we will experience a somewhat strange constellation at the ATP Finals.

Djokovic is under pressure after his defeat, a loss would mean the end. Hurkacz is one of his absolute favorite opponents, and the Pole is only stepping in and knows that the semi-finals will no longer be possible.

That was a decisive factor for me. A player who has nothing to gain in purely sporting terms is not sufficiently motivated in my eyes. Therefore, I simply recommend the following bet:

Djokovic beats Hurkacz outright!