Dortmund – Cologne Tip
Was last week the decisive sticking point for Borussia Dortmund? After a winning streak that had lasted since the beginning of the year, BVB were not only eliminated from the Champions League, but also dropped points in domestic competition for the first time.
In the Bundesliga, the Black and Yellows have now fallen behind by two points, but are still very close to FC Bayern. It is all the more important to show a reaction next Saturday.
A home match against 1. FC Köln is on the agenda! The Cathedral City side have been able to annoy Borussia on a few occasions, but Steffen Baumgart’s team is currently slipping further and further down the table and simply isn’t scoring anymore.
Not really surprising, after all, the home side are known to be very strong in their own stadium.
In my Dortmund Köln tip, I will now try to analyse the offensive problems of the guests on the one hand, and BVB’s last two games on the other. My betting recommendation? The points stay at Signal-Iduna-Park – and without conceding a goal!
The betting providers’ forecast?
The single bet on a Borussia win is by no means profitable for everyone, because our betting providers agree: Here, the maximum odds are 1.47! So alternatives are needed to push the value up.
An away win would of course bring significantly higher payouts, but since 1. FC Köln have only won one away game this season, 6.20 is probably even more optimistic.
Cologne like draws. They have already done so nine times, but have only managed to share the points with BVB twice. The corresponding chances on Saturday are therefore probably rather restrained, and the average odds of 4.70 are also relatively lush.
Analysis: Dortmund vs Cologne
Was it that one week that ended up shaking up the entire season? Borussia Dortmund had been on an impressive winning streak in 2023, including a 1-0 win over Chelsea in the Champions League round of 16 first leg.
In the second leg, however, BVB had to realise: Every series comes to an end. The match was lost 0:2, and the quarter-finals were gone. Just a few days after this disappointment, the derby against Schalke was on the agenda, and away too.
Dortmund deserved to take the lead twice and were actually in control of the game. In the end, the old football wisdom proved true once again that a derby simply has its own laws.
In the end, the scoreboard showed a 2:2, so Edin Terzic’s team is now two points behind FC Bayern. That’s not much, of course, but further slip-ups are forbidden from now on.
This time, it’s not the Munich team’s turn until Sunday, when they have a tough away game in Leverkusen ahead of them. It would be worth twice as much gold if Dortmund could get ahead, because after that there is an international break.
Everyone knows what’s coming up when the Bundesliga continues! BVB must go to Munich! No ifs, ands or buts, there is no alternative to a three-goal win on Saturday. Eight wins and the draw against Bayern, the last home games can definitely be seen.
Quote analysis
In my eyes, a success for the black and yellows is then also a foregone conclusion. The FC is getting weaker and weaker, so that I rule out a surprise and even say: Here a 0:1 handicap is profitable, which would entail odds of 2.20.
Although I expect a clear victory for Dortmund, I believe less in a spectacle. The Geißböcken have nothing more to offer offensively, and BVB is missing Julian Brandt. A score of less than 3.5 goals at odds of 1.56 therefore seems quite realistic to me.
At Betano, I also looked around for the best result bets. A solid BVB win without BTS and a big scoring festival? In my eyes, you should use the odds of 8.25 and plead for a 2:0!
Rotate BVB?
2:2, 5:0, 3:0, 4:3, 5:1, 4:1 and 2:1, boredom really did not arise in the past games. Now, however, Borussia has to cope with a perhaps decisive loss, as Julian Brandt will not be able to score again for the time being.
Karim Adeyemi and Youssoufa Moukoko will also only be able to watch from the bench at the weekend. In terms of personnel, there is another interesting piece of news, which will only have a 50 per cent impact this Saturday.
With Anthony Modeste, Mats Hummels and Julian Ryerson, three not entirely unimportant players are on four yellow cards. As we all know, the next but one game is the clash with Bayern, so we can’t take any risks here.
Cologne in free fall
Dortmund lost 3-2 to Cologne in the first leg, so they still have a score to settle here. One win from the last five direct duels? That sounds very thin indeed from BVB’s point of view!
On the positive side, the team has not lost to Cologne since 1997, if you look at the second half of the season. A single home defeat against FC since 1991 is another fact that should encourage the fans.
Is there anything at all to suggest that 1. FC Köln can surprise? Steffen Baumgart’s team started the second half of the season with a brilliant 7:1 win against Bremen, and they almost won at FC Bayern (final score: 1:1) afterwards.
The fans were already starting to dream of Europe again when the crash began. One win from the last eight games, and that is only one side of the coin. Especially offensively, nothing really works anymore.
In six of the last seven matches, no goals were scored, the most recent 0:2 against Bochum was particularly disappointing. Are the players really on the pitch who celebrated that 7:1 against Bremen in January?
While I’m on the subject of offensive harmlessness, it’s also worth taking a look at the performances away from home. Only once, at the beginning of September, did they manage a win with a 4:2 in Wolfsburg.
At least they have managed to pick up at least one point in three of the last four games, but the team is no longer good at scoring goals. One goal from the last seven away games, and that in the Allianz Arena of all places!
Eleven goals have been scored in total, including the four goals from Wolfsburg. Even at relegation candidates like Hertha or Schalke 04, the Geißböcke’ offence remained completely pale.
My BVB Cologne tip:
Although BVB have had a tough week, I expect the black and yellows to strike back on Saturday. Why? Quite simply because their opponents are not getting back on their feet at all.
1. FC Köln continues to tumble, and we can hardly find any positive aspects, especially in attack. Steffen Baumgart’s team is weak away from home and has only celebrated one victory.
Moreover, since only one goal has been scored away from home since autumn, I have no choice but to devote myself to a special win bet on the hosts, which looks like this:
Dortmund beats Cologne without conceding a goal!
