Dortmund – Freiburg betting tip
This promising Bundesliga clash of Matchday 19 represents an extremely important game for both clubs!
Because with a weakening record champion at the top, the immediate pursuers are no longer just fighting for the vice championship and the accompanying participation in the top division…
In my Dortmund Freiburg tip, I will examine whether the Breisgauer can actually get past BVB on Saturday and, with a bit of luck, even draw level with Bayern.
It is, of course, important to answer the question of whether Vincenzo Grifo will be in the starting eleven for the Breisgauer or will only come off the bench again. Because the Italian is simply indispensable in the game of the Black Forest.
As of today, the Italian international has been involved in 12 of the 29 Bundesliga goals – and he has also put the odd ball into the black-yellow net against BVB in the past.
Finally, my Dortmund Freiburg tip also explains why we should expect everything but a tired draw in this match…
The betting providers’ forecast?
Bet365 sports bets on this match stand out in that the bookmaker rates a Borussia win as very likely.
However, not only this bookmaker, but also other tested betting providers are trading a BVB win at odds of around 1.67, but are already offering significantly higher odds of 4.60 for the opposite case – and this despite the fact that both clubs are tied for fourth place after 18 rounds!
Analysis: Dortmund vs Freiburg
Dortmund are on the rise again – that much is certain! After all, BVB is the only Bundesliga club apart from Union Berlin to have won each of the first three points matches of 2023.
Strictly speaking, these were almost always high-scoring moments of success against Augsburg (4:3), Mainz (2:1) and most recently Leverkusen (2:0).
“Goals” thus seem to be pre-programmed for every first division match involving the black and yellow team! After all, Dortmund – unbelievable but true – have not played 0-0 for 111 consecutive Bundesliga matches.
Freiburg, meanwhile, at least lived up to their role as favourites against Augsburg (3:1) after an epochal 0:6 defeat against Wolfsburg and a 1:1 against the strong team from Frankfurt.
However, I watched the game against the Fuggerstädter and have to say that really nobody in Breisgau could have complained if they had to share the points again in the end.
Vincenzo Grifo’s absence is noticeably affecting the Breisgau side’s playmaking! But in fact, the latest reports seem to suggest that the playmaker will be on the pitch from the start in the big-match against Borussia this time around.
The recommended Dortmund Freiburg tip in my eyes depends heavily on whether Vincenzo Grifo will be on the pitch from the start.
Especially since the Freiburgers live on their danger with standards – and especially in this point, the Italian fills an important role as the main culprit of all corners and free kicks at the SCF.
Should Grifo be in the starting eleven – as I currently assume – the BVB win odds of just 1.50 are too low for me. In this case a draw, if not an away win bet, is probably the much more sensible betting decision.
Christian Streich mostly winless against BVB!
Freiburg have a lot to thank Christian Streich for, as it is precisely this coach who has turned the Breisgauer into a top team that is now also deservedly in the knockout phase of the Europa League.
And yet there are things that the 57-year-old is not so good at – such as winning duels against BVB. Christian Streich has lost 15 of his 20 Bundesliga duels against Dortmund.
In the entire history of the Bundesliga, only Thomas Schaaf (16) and Friedhelm Funkel (18) have lost more games against BVB than the current SCF coach.
Dortmund dominate Freiburg!
Dortmund are clearly on the up and have convinced me much more than SC Freiburg with their performances so far in the new year.
In fact, the direct comparison also suggests that it is the BVB fans who will have every reason to celebrate this weekend.
Because their boys are so superior to the Breisgauers in some categories than any other Bundesliga team.
Dortmund, for example, has lost only one of its last 22 Bundesliga home games against Freiburg (18 wins, 3 draws). In fact, the last defeat against the SCF at Signal-Iduna-Park dates back to October 2001.
What’s more: with 64% and 2.16, Borussia realised their highest win rate as well as the highest average score in Bundesliga duels against the Black Forest side of all teams.
Furthermore, Dortmund are again strong enough in their own stadium to be hard to crack by a Bundesliga club.
After all, BVB have not lost any of their last six first division home games (5 wins, 1 draw). This corresponds to the longest series of this kind under coach Edin Terzic.
Has the former interim coach now pressed the right buttons to ensure lasting success for the Black and Yellows?
My BVB Freiburg tip:
Vincenzo Grifo is one of the best Bundesliga players in the league and should he be in the starting eleven on Saturday, the Black Forest side must be taken seriously.
After 18 matchdays, they are not coincidentally tied for fourth place with BVB, so at least a point win for the SCF would certainly not come out of the blue.
On balance, I would still favour BVB – but not at the low odds currently being traded on the betting markets.
My Dortmund Freiburg tip is consequently: Double Chance X2.