Dortmund – Mainz Tip
All in their own hands – Saturday afternoon Dortmund can become German champions for the first time since 2012. The Borussians enter the 34th matchday of the Bundesliga with a two-point lead over Bayern Munich.
So should FC Bayern drop points themselves, a win at home against Mainz would no longer be necessary. But the Black and Yellows will definitely not let that happen.
They are the clear favourites going into the final game of the season. Will Dortmund clinch the title? What is the best bet for this exciting match? I’ll go into this in my Dortmund Mainz tip.
One more win and Bayern’s seemingly endless dominance of the Bundesliga will be broken. The record champions last won the trophy ten times in a row.
Or to put it another way: children who are in the sixth grade at school today have never seen a German football champion other than the Munich team in their lives.
But this year, Joshua Kimmich, Thomas Müller and Co. can no longer do it on their own after the defeat against RB Leipzig (1:3) last matchday.
The betting providers’ forecast
Bayern have no choice but to put pressure on BVB with a quick lead in the away game in Cologne. Because if Bayern wins, Dortmund also needs three points for the title due to the worse goal difference.
However, the top betting providers agree that a Dortmund slip-up on Saturday is very unlikely. The odds on the league leader to win are 1.18.
BVB’s win probability is around 84 per cent, while a draw bet can be placed at Bet365 at 7.50 odds. Mainz are clear underdogs with 12.0 odds.
Analysis: Dortmund vs Mainz
The odds are justified. Besides the fact that Dortmund is playing for the title, the home record of the black and yellows is outstanding.
Out of 16 games, Dortmund have won 14 and drawn once. Only Werder Bremen managed to snatch three points at Signal Iduna Park in the now legendary 2:3 comeback, in which three goals were scored from the 89th minute onwards.
From mid-October onwards, a series of eleven Bundesliga home victories followed. Most recently, BVB celebrated three resounding victories against Eintracht Frankfurt (4:0), Wolfsburg (6:0) and Mönchengladbach (5:2).
3.3 goals scored on average at home. Especially in the second half of the season, Dortmund stepped up a gear. The Borussians scored 50 of their 81 goals in the second half of the season.
However, an over-goal bet on Saturday is only worthwhile if you go for the high shelf.
For over 2.5 goals, Bet365 has just 1.22 ready. If you want to double your money, you would have to bet on over 4.5 goals (2.30).
The oddsmakers are therefore assuming a shoot-out in which Dortmund won’t let anything go against Mainz. It’s not improbable.
Odds Analysis
The 05ers conceded four goals at home against VfB Stuttgart in the previous week. Thus they lost their chances for a place in the Europa or Conference League.
In the last match, only eighth place could be possible if Frankfurt loses at home to Freiburg.
Dortmund’s offensive dominance is not only reflected in the results. Against Augsburg, Sebastien Haller and Co. created 20 scoring chances in the first half.
Against Gladbach, the final whistle blew for 34 goals, twelve of which went straight into the box. Similar figures are to be expected in the last match.
Dortmund can definitely be expected to take the lead in the first half. The half-time/finish bet with Dortmund/Dortmund going is 1.53 (Betano).
Will Dortmund take the lead in half time?
Already in recent weeks, Dortmund have gone full throttle in the first half. Especially at home, many goals have been scored in the first half.
In the last ten league games, there have been at least two goals on the scoreboard at the break nine times. Therefore, a bet for over 1.5 goals in the first half at 1.78 is recommended.
Even though there is a lot at stake, Dortmund are not expected to be too timid in their last match of all and let it come down to the second half.
After Bayern win a Mainz losing streak
In addition, if Bayern were to take an early lead, it would create incredible pressure, which Edin Terzic is determined to prevent from arising in the first place by quickly clearing the lines.
But Mainz should not be underestimated despite their recent defeats. In April, Bo Svensson’s team even managed to upset Bayern with a 3:1 home win.
However, this was followed by a series of four defeats. In Wolfsburg, the carnival club lost 0:3, followed by a 2:3 against Schalke, 0:3 against Frankfurt and the 1:4 against Stuttgart.
13 goals conceded in four games show the shortcomings in the defence. A suitable bet for Saturday would be Dortmund’s home win combined with over 3.5 goals. Betano offers a tight 1.70 for this market.
For the last game of the season, both teams have a well-stocked squad at their disposal. Dortmund will still have to do without Thomas Meunier, Mateu Morey Bauza, Abdoulaye Kamara and Jamie Bynoe-Gittens.
The visitors will be without captain Silvan Widmer and centre-forwards Jonathan Burkardt and Ludovic Ajorque.
Dortmund have come out on top in the last four meetings between the two teams. BVB even won three times in Mainz in this series.
At home, on the other hand, the yellow-and-blacks have struggled more often. Dortmund have only won two of their last five home games against the Nullfünfer.
My BVB Mainz tip:
Dortmund will probably meet Mainz at the best possible time, having lost their last four games and having no chance of playing in European competition next season.
At home, BVB is a power with eleven wins in a row and has played the last opponents to the wall with concentrated offensive power. In the last five home games alone, Dortmund have scored 23 goals.
All in all, there has been a lot of action in the first halves at Signal Iduna Park, with at least two goals in nine of the last ten games. I also expect quick goals in the all-important match.
After all, BVB wants to avoid the pressure that would increase on the team with every minute of the game without a lead. That’s why I recommend in my Dortmund Mainz tip that over 1.5 goals are scored in half-time one.
