Serie A, Sunday, 27/05/2023

Fiorentina now only have eyes for the Conference League final, as a treble wouldn’t change much about their desolate position in the league. However, the Giallorossi could do with points on the other hand.

I intend to use my Bet365 bonus with a successful Fiorentina AS Roma bet.

In order to put this plan into action, I have looked at all the facts and figures relevant to the game and have come to the conclusion that the visitors should at least not lose.

Last Wednesday, Fiorentina’s Coppa Italia final against Inter was the first of two highlights that the entire fan base of the purple ones has been looking forward to for weeks.

The Conference League final, meanwhile, will be the next attempt to revive the once golden days surrounding legends like Batistuta and Crespo.

Accordingly, I can’t imagine too much attention will be paid to Saturday’s intervening match against Roma.

Vincenzo Italiano’s eleven have lost six of their last seven Serie A games against this opponent anyway.

What’s more, Roma have won as many point games against AC Florence since the start of the 2019/20 season as they have against nobody else league-wide (6).

However, for their part, the Giallorossi also have a final in mind – the Europa League final to be precise, against the extremely experienced Sevilla FC, who are looking to secure this trophy for the 7th time already!

In Jose Mourinho, however, the Romans have a coach in their ranks who has not only won all European Cup competitions, but has not lost a single European final.

But a high enough ranking in the league also grants access to the 2023/24 Champions League. In this respect, AS Roma could still slip into fourth place with two wins over Florence and Spezia with a bit of luck!

For Florence, on the other hand, the cup competitions are the only way to salvage something good from an otherwise unsuccessful 2022/23 Serie A season that would surely have resulted in a coaching sacking.

Now that it is clear that the chase for the international places, which began shortly after the World Cup break, has long since petered out somewhere in the no-man’s land of the league, I cannot imagine that Fiorentina will continue to go full throttle on Saturday in order to collect points.

Especially as the Viola have only managed to pick up two more trebles in the last eight matchdays after initially winning five Serie A games in a row.

In addition, the analysts do not seem to want to participate in a Florence victory bet. Their data analysis shows impressively how unlikely a success over Roma is.

It would be the first time since 1994 that Florence would celebrate two home victories in a row over the Giallorossi after their last home win.

The best bet for my Fiorentina AS Roma tip is a draw, because there are at least a few interesting clues.

After all, Roma have drawn against Florence in Serie A as many times (60) as historically only against Lazio (60).

The bookmakers surprise me a little at this point, actually seeming to favour the home side.

The Bwin app of the provider of the same name reveals in no time at all that the win odds of 2.45 to 2.80 on average rather see the men from beautiful Tuscany in front.

However, the draw odds of 3.30 lead to the highest payout within the framework of a traditional 1X2 bet and are therefore perhaps just the thing for betting enthusiasts with a high risk appetite.

After all, after seven matches in a row in which there has always been a winner at the end, it would finally be time for a draw in a Serie A match that has always been very draw-heavy so far.

Conclusion: Fiorentina have just lost the Coppa Italia final 2-1 and are now even more focused on the Conference League final to at least add a trophy to their own trophy cabinet.

Roma, meanwhile, need the win more urgently and are also strong enough to take at least a point from the Stadio Artemio Franchi.

The possible absence of Spinazolla could cost the Romans a lot of pressure on the flanks, but even so they should be wide enough to avoid being outplayed.

My Fiorentina AS Roma tip is therefore: Double Chance X2.