Freiburg – Hoffenheim betting tip
Can TSG Hoffenheim stop their losing streak? On Sunday, Pellegrino Matarazzo’s team must travel to SC Freiburg, who have the Europa League first leg at Juventus Torino in their bones.
Hoffenheim need the points to free themselves from the relegation zone. Freiburg want to stay in a good position in the fight for the Champions League places.
In my Freiburg Hoffenheim tip I analyse the duel and give a forecast including odds recommendation.
Juventus Turin were too big for SC Freiburg, at least in the first leg. The Breisgauer should still be satisfied with the 0:1. The Italians played the Bundesliga side up against the wall at times.
In the entire match, Freiburg only had two goals. One of them ended up in the net, but it was taken back because of a handball in the run-up to the game.
The bettors’ forecast
While in Turin it was all about conceding as little as possible to show off at home in the second leg, the mission against Hoffenheim on Sunday is a completely different one.
A win is needed against the worst team of the second half of the season. Since the turn of the year, the Kraichgauer have only managed to pick up one point from eight games. With the cup exit against RB Leipzig, there have been eight defeats in nine competitive games.
Despite the extra workload from the Europa League, betting companies are therefore listing SC Freiburg as favourites, albeit not big ones.
Bet365 is offering odds of 4.00 for Hoffenheim’s first competitive match win in 2023, and 3.60 for a draw.
Analysis: Freiburg vs Hoffenheim
The Freiburg side have also been less impressive of late. Even before the match against Torino, the team presented itself harmless.
In the last three matches, Freiburg could only score one goal and did not create many chances in the 1:1 against Leverkusen and the 0:0 against Mönchengladbach.
For the match against Hoffenheim, Freiburg can still rely on a full squad. Only Daniel-Kofi Kyereh is missing, while Woo-yeong Jeong, who was absent from the game against Juventus due to illness, is questionable.
Should Freiburg continue to struggle offensively for the fourth game in a row and fail to score more than one goal, a bet on the hosts to score under 1.5 goals would be worthwhile in the run-up. Bet3000 has odds of 1.90 on this.
Even if Freiburg score an average of 1.7 goals in their own stadium, this bet is quite lucrative in view of the fact that the match takes place in the Europa League sandwich and Freiburg have not been convincing lately.
Odds Analysis
In addition, Hoffenheim have conceded just one goal in each of their last three matches, but have failed to score a single goal themselves.
Freiburg have only lost one match at home, winning seven of their eleven games. With only nine goals conceded, they have the third-best defence at home after Bayern and Union Berlin, who each conceded only eight.
Borussia Dortmund is the only team to have won at Sport-Club – and they did so last August. This was followed by 14 games at the Europa-Park Stadion without defeat.
The odds for the double chance 1X are 1.29 at Betano, a mini-odds, but perhaps suitable for a combination ticket…
No more goals conceded at Hoffenheim?
TSG Hoffenheim can only dream of this home record at the moment. Seven points from twelve home games result in last place in the home table.
But the Turn- und Sportgemeinschaft is also not successful away from home. Only two of the eleven appearances on foreign turf ended victoriously, seven with a defeat.
After four clear defeats against Mönchengladbach (1:4), Leipzig (1:3), Bochum (2:5) and Leverkusen (1:3), the Kraichgauer’s defence has stabilised somewhat, at least on paper. Against Augsburg, Dortmund and Mainz, there were only three narrow 0:1 defeats recently.
Lack of efficiency in Hoffenheim’s offensive
Lack of efficiency in front of the opponent’s box, though. However, Hoffenheim do not play too badly going forward.
Against Dortmund and Mainz, the Kraichgauer scored a total of 28 goals, some of which were top-class, especially against BVB.
At the same time, TSG could have conceded even more goals in the matches due to the repeatedly poorly organised defence. In the last two matches, further goals conceded were retrospectively cancelled out.
On Sunday, the relegation candidates will have to do without seven players. Jacob Bruun Larsen, Grischa Prömel, Sebastian Rudy, Justin Che and Stanley Nsoki are missing due to injury. Christoph Baumgartner’s yellow suspension also weighs heavily.
Hoffenheim could take heart from their last away game at SC Freiburg. They won that one 2-1.
The first leg of this season was a goalless draw. A surprising result, as both teams have scored 17 times in the last 20 encounters. A bet on a goal from both teams on Sunday offers odds of around 1.70.
Overall, the balance in this duel is quite even. In the last ten meetings, Freiburg have won five times, while TSG have celebrated three victories.
My Freiburg Hoffenheim tip:
SC Freiburg face Hoffenheim on Sunday between Europa League games with a trip to Italy in their bones.
However, Hoffenheim’s poor record and numerous absences mean they don’t travel with much confidence to home-tough Freiburg, who have only lost their first home game this season.
I expect Hoffenheim to have problems in defence again against Freiburg. At the same time, TSG will again create several chances, but will probably not score more than one or two goals due to the absences.
I expect a similar number of goals in what will probably be a rather tough match from Freiburg, who will also have to show the necessary flair in managing the pressure.
I therefore opt for a bet on 2-4 goals in the match.
