Germany – Costa Rica Tip
The big arithmetic game begins! After the 1-1 draw against Spain, the DFB team still has every chance of advancing to the last 16 in Group E as the second-placed team in the table. A win on Thursday evening is a must for this.
The truth is, however, that they are to a certain extent dependent on what happens in the parallel match between Japan and Spain.
In my Costa Rica Germany tip, I will of course analyse the starting position in detail and show why I am betting on a win for the DFB team with a handicap of -2.
One thing in advance: A German victory with a two-goal lead means almost certain qualification for the first knockout round. Only a Japanese win against Spain would make things much more complicated.
Either way, my Costa Rica Germany prediction focuses on the German offensive. With only two goals in the tournament so far, the German attack has not been able to recommend itself for higher tasks, but is now in demand against Costa Rica.
Our bookmakers see Germany as the clear favourites with odds of around 1.10 to win. However, the central question is whether the Flick team is really in the shape to win against Costa Rica without any problems.
That’s why I’m betting on a win for Germany with a -2 handicap:
The first thing in Germany’s favour is Costa Rica’s weakness. The Central Americans were able to cause a big surprise on the second day of group play by beating the strangely weak Japanese.
But the 7-0 opening defeat to Spain also showed that they are simply out of their depth at the highest level.
Accordingly, I expect Costa Rica to be able to get the better of a stumbling Germany, especially as the DFB team recently achieved a respectable result with a 1-1 draw against Spain.
Since the quality differences (at least on paper) between Germany and Costa Rica are more than obvious, I can’t imagine anything other than the DFB team dominating the game from the start and trapping the Costa Ricans in their own half.
It should therefore come as no surprise that other goal bets play a central role in my forecast, which are lucrative alternatives for a successful World Cup tip.
Germany vs Costa Rica betting odds prediction:
With a look at the classic 1×2 odds of our betting providers, it becomes clear first of all that a simple bet on a German victory is simply not worth it.
The odds do not even scratch the 1.15 mark and thus do not offer a profitable betting value. The fact that double-digit odds are called for a draw across all providers serves as a further indication of the starting position of the match.
Of course, the average 25.0 odds on a Costa Rican win are in the same vein.
So if the odds for a German win are too low and you are in the realm of a high-risk bet with a draw or a Costa Rican win, handicap and goal bets are bound to come into play.
Germany vs Costa Rica stats & analysis
It is clear that Germany will have to put all their eggs in one basket against Costa Rica. After all, a defeat or a draw would see the four-time world champions eliminated in any case.
A narrow 1:0 would also be too little if Japan and Spain were to draw 1-1. So the rule applies: the higher Germany wins, the better its chances of reaching the last 16. An 8-0 win would qualify the DFB team for the last 16 in any case.
Costa Rica, however, is unlikely to make it that far. In any case, the Flick team will have to buck the trend of recent weeks. Germany have won only two of their last ten international matches.
In the most recent three games, only one goal was scored. The last really convincing success was several months ago.
In the Nations League they won 5:2 against Italy, and the recent World Cup record is also sobering by German standards. Only one of the last five World Cup matches was won.
Germany has a goal difference of 4:7. Nevertheless, there is one personified ray of hope: Niklas Füllkrug.
The Bremen player scored in the test match against Oman (1:0) as well as against Spain.
The odds for at least one Füllkrug goal against Costa Rica are only around 1.80. However, there is one question: Will Hansi Flick order the 29-year-old into the starting eleven against Costa Rica?
Costa Rica – Germany odds in the analysis
Independently of possible Füllkrug call-ups, the major betting providers expect an above-average high-scoring match between Germany and Costa Rica.
The odds for a game with over 2.5 goals, for example, rise to just 1.30.
Even a “more than 3.5 goals” is only 1.80. And since the bookmakers give the classic “both teams score – no” odds of around 1.60, it is clear where the journey is heading.
The result odds are also in line with this. A 3:0 win for the DFB team is the most likely result with odds of around 6.00.
It is of course no coincidence that my handicap tip fits in perfectly here. The over/under bets for the respective halves are also interesting.
If you assume that the DFB team will start like fire in the first half in view of the starting position, you are excellently advised to bet “Over 1.5 goals in the first half” at 1.90.
Of course, I also have a risk tip: If Germany wins and concedes at least one goal, odds of around 2.80 are due.
Of course, this would require the Costa Ricans to play. Basically, it should not be forgotten that the Central Americans can still make it to the last 16 of the World Cup.
Costa Rica without a realistic chance?
With all the legitimate arithmetic and betting variations, Costa Rican chances must also play a certain role.
In fact, a draw would be enough for Luis Fernando Suarez’s team to secure a place in the first knockout round should Japan lose to Spain.
A glance at the respective squad market values, however, makes it clear that Costa Rica will only be competing as David against Goliath Germany.
The Central Americans have a total market value of just under € 19 million.
Germany, on the other hand, stands at around 885 million euros. It fits into the picture that the recent success against Japan was somewhat fortunate. With only one shot on goal and 43% possession, they didn’t exactly cover themselves with glory.
If you also include the game against Spain in the statistics, Costa Rica have one shot on goal after 180 minutes of play.
A convincing performance against Germany is therefore not on the horizon.
Without sounding disrespectful, one must state: Anything less than a clear defeat against the DFB team on Thursday evening would be a huge surprise.
Memories of the summer fairytale!
Unfortunately, the direct comparison between Germany and Costa Rica does not give a reliable indication. After all, the two national teams have only met once before.
Nevertheless, the duel is worth remembering. After all, they met at the start of the 2006 World Cup. Germany was defensively susceptible, but in the end deserved to win 4:2.
Philipp Lahm’s goal to make it 1-0 was the starting signal for the legendary summer fairytale.
Germany’s recent World Cup record against teams from the CONCACAF confederation is quite positive. They have won six of the last eight duels. The last defeat came against Mexico at the 2018 World Cup in Russia.
In total, the statistics show 15 wins, six draws and six defeats. The defeats were exclusively against Mexico (2) and the USA (4).
Costa Rica’s matches with UEFA teams have rarely ended well in the recent past.
In fact, the Central Americans have won only one of their last eleven World Cup matches against European teams.
That success dates back to the 2014 World Cup. At that time, they won sensationally against Italy (1:0). With ten wins, eleven draws and 23 defeats, the historical record against UEFA teams is clearly negative.
My Germany Costa Rica prediction:
The conclusion to the duel between Germany and Costa Rica is ultimately clear.
Although the DFB team has not played an outstanding World Cup so far, most of the statistics before the last day of group matches point to a confident performance by the four-time world champions.
Costa Rica simply don’t have the quality to give the Flick team a battle on a par with their opponents.
So it is to be expected that the Germans will do their homework against the Central Americans in order not to be overly dependent on the parallel match between Spain and Japan.
Accordingly, I can imagine the DFB team taking an early lead and overrunning the Costa Ricans as the game progresses.
A victory with at least a three-goal difference is therefore extremely realistic. My Costa Rica Germany tip is therefore: The DFB team wins the match with a handicap of -2!
