1899 Hoffenheim – Borussia Dortmund Tip

The opening match of the 6th Bundesliga matchday between TSG Hoffenheim and Borussia Dortmund is a real top match. Thus, the winner of the duel will at least temporarily conquer the top of the table. Of course, the focus will be on BVB’s performance.

After all, Edin Terzic’s team has played an almost peculiar season so far and is noticeably lagging behind expectations, despite the fact that they are still without any defeat in the league.

Accordingly, in my Hoffenheim Dortmund tip, I do not expect the Black and Yellows to deliver a truly commanding performance.

Rather, there is a high probability that Hoffenheim’s strong form will cause BVB the worst problems. A home defeat by TSG is therefore not in my sights and I opt for the “Double Chance 1X”.

As betting alternatives, I will also cite numerous goal bets that result from the available statistics.

I will also include the direct comparison, which has some surprising facts to offer. I will also look at the question of who is supposed to score the goals for BVB.

After all, Borussia is still struggling with an offensive lull that has long been worrying from BVB’s point of view.

Tellingly, in the last two games against Freiburg and Wolfsburg, centre-back Mats Hummels and benchwarmer Marco Reus had to pull the coals out of the black-yellow fire. Whether this will also be enough against 1899 Hoffenheim is doubtful.

The betting companies’ forecast?

And our betting providers also have their doubts about Borussia Dortmund.

The Terzic team is the favourite for the match against TSG. However, the odds for an away win are above the telling 2.00 mark.

A Hoffenheim success is not considered unlikely at all with odds around 3.00. If I had to decide on a 1×2 tip, however, I would consider a draw.

The odds are just under 4.00 and are an excellent deal given the starting position.

Analysis: Hoffenheim vs Dortmund

At the start of the season, TSG Hoffenheim have almost quietly worked their way into the top third of the table.

After five games, Pellegrino Matarazzo’s team is in fifth place with a record of four wins and one defeat, making it one of the positive surprises.

In fact, the recent record is simply impressive. The Kraichgauer have won all of their last five games, scoring at least two goals in each.

In four of those games, they even scored exactly three goals each. Worth considering: Bwin and Co. are offering odds of around 2.00 for at least two Hoffenheim goals against BVB.

The only blemish on TSG’s record so far is their only defeat of the season at home. On the first matchday, they lost narrowly against SC Freiburg with 1:2.

And since they were not one of the strongest teams at home in the Bundesliga in the pre-season with only seven home wins, the “Double Chance 1X” is a much more sensible bet for me than, for example, betting on a home win.

In addition, there is the fact that Dortmund is still without a defeat in the league. The truth is, however, that Borussia did not have to overcome the most difficult opening programme with Cologne, Bochum, Heidenheim, Freiburg and Wolfsburg.

All in all, eleven points after five matchdays are fine, but nothing more. However, the Ruhr club is mainly concerned about the deficits in play.

In the league, they have struggled through the games so far, and in the Champions League they had no real chance against top team PSG (0:2).

BVB has not yet positioned itself as a serious candidate for the championship. The offensive balance is correspondingly capable of improvement.

After five league games, the team has “only” scored nine goals. By comparison, Bayern have scored exactly twice as many goals. Significantly, all three central strikers – Sebastien Haller, Niclas Füllkrug and Youssoufa Moukoko – have yet to score for Borussia in the league.

If Dortmund stay under 1.5 goals in total in Kraichgau, attractive odds of around 2.20 are due.


Surprising in this context is the bookmakers’ general assessment of goal bets. In fact, not only the German bookmakers expect an above-average goal-rich encounter.

For example, the bet “Over 2.5 goals” does not even make it over the 1.50 mark. The counterpart “Under 2.5 goals” is clearly above average (2.90).

If you want to spice up the “Double Chance 1X” a bit, you could consider the bet “DC 1X & under 4.5 goals” at odds around 2.25.

Unlike the bookmakers, I don’t expect a shooting match. Borussia’s offensive problems are simply also likely to make themselves felt in the Kraichgau.

Away weakness for BVB?

Borussia Dortmund’s away performances so far do not give a clear indication.

On the one hand, they won 4:2 in Freiburg. On the other hand, they only managed a meagre 1:1 in Bochum. If you also add the 0:2 in the top flight in Paris, the away record is not really outstanding.

Remarkable: Dortmund did not lead at the break in any of the three away games. Should the game against Hoffenheim go into the break with a draw, risk-conscious bettors can pick up strong odds of around 2.50.

Suddenly TSG are ahead of Borussia!

With a view to the direct comparison, a myth must first be dispelled.

TSG is generally regarded, at least in fan circles, as Borussia’s fearful opponent. In reality, however, the most recent statistics speak the opposite language.

BVB has won all four of its most recent encounters with 1899. In fact, in the last six games against TSG, the Ruhrpott club has picked up 16 out of a possible 18 points.

The truth is, however, that Dortmund’s five wins in that period have all come by just one goal difference. So things have certainly been close between the two teams.

Hoffenheim’s home record against Dortmund is average at best.

Only five of the 15 home games were won. But with five draws, only five games were lost. In 66% of the cases, the bet “Double Chance 1X” would have been successful. The goal balance, however, does not show any abnormalities (22:20).

No clear trend can be seen in the most recent goal yield. Three of the past six duels have each ended with a minimalist 1-0 victory.

However, 14 goals have been scored in the other three games.

It is striking that Hoffenheim and Dortmund have drawn only one of the last eight Bundesliga matches. In the 2020/21 season, they drew 2-2 in the second leg.

My Hoffenheim BVB tip:

The starting position in the run-up to the clash between TSG Hoffenheim and Borussia Dortmund is not really clear. 1899 is in strong form, but has looked rather poor against Borussia in recent years.

BVB, on the other hand, is still without a defeat, but has not been convincing offensively so far. So on Friday evening, we can expect an incredibly close encounter in which the famous little things will probably make the difference.

If Hoffenheim are as determined as they were in their 2:0 win against Union Berlin, BVB will have great problems taking all three points from Kraichgau.

My Hoffenheim Dortmund tip is therefore: Double Chance 1X!