Hoffenheim – Hertha Tip
The PreZero Arena in Sinsheim is the venue for an absolute basement duel this Saturday when bottom side TSG Hoffenheim welcome Hertha from Berlin.
The visitors are just above the famous line, but could even take over the red lantern in a worst-case scenario if they lose.
In this 6-point thriller, the best online bookmakers see the hosts quite clearly ahead, to my surprise.
There are certainly arguments in favour of 1899, but with the odds currently available on the market, value for me clearly lies in betting on the visitors.
All the important facts about the upcoming duel and a detailed explanation of why I tend to side with the Berliners in this match can be found in my Hoffenheim Hertha forecast.
The prediction of the betting companies?
You can only slightly more than double your stake with a successful bet on TSG. If you bet on Hertha, on the other hand, you will be paid more than three times your stake.
In the first leg, the score was 1:1 – and if you bet on a not unlikely repeat of exactly this result, you will receive odds of up to 7.00. This top value is delivered free of charge by the betting provider Betano, among others.
By contrast, bets on both teams scoring a goal remain well below the odds mark of 2.00. This is a top value of just 2.00. For this, there are top values of just around 1.70. The Over 2.5 is quoted at up to 1.82. The counter-bet, i.e. a maximum of two goals, is at a tight 1.95.
Analysis: Hoffenheim vs Hertha BSC
Originally, Pellegrino Matarazzo was supposed to save TSG Hoffenheim from relegation. When he took over the team, it already had nine Bundesliga games under its belt without a win.
Since the new coach has been in office, there have been five more defeats – in five games. The last time Markus Weinzierl lost the first five games without exception was in 2016 after he was hired as Schalke’s new coach.
According to media reports, Matarazzo could vacate his post after just over a month if TSG also lose on Saturday.
Fact: After 14 winless Bundesliga games in a row and most recently seven defeats in a row, the Kraichgauer have arrived at the bottom of the table – where they last stood more than seven years ago in January 2016.
Hoffenheim became only the second team in Bundesliga history to lose all of their first seven games in the second half of the season. At the same time, 1899 set a new negative record for the club.
In their last 14 Bundesliga games, TSG have only managed to pick up two measly points. After 24 match days, they have just 19 points.
Only once before, in the 2012/2013 season, did Hoffenheim have an even worse interim record. At that time, it was only 16 points after 24 games. In the end, they had to go through the relegation process and only managed to stay in the league in the two decisive games.
In any case, the current situation is not yet hopeless. With a win on Saturday, Hoffenheim would overtake the Old Lady and, in the best case scenario, leave the relegation places altogether.
At some point, the winning streak of the Kraichgauer has to end and with the Berliners comes the best possible opponent, as we will see in the further course of the Hoffenheim Hertha forecast.
And yet, after seven defeats in a row and only three wins in twelve home games, which makes TSG the worst home team in the Bundesliga, you don’t necessarily have to expect a home win.
For me, the odds for the Herthaner are too high. A bet on an away win is certainly not wrong with a small stake.
On the other hand, you shouldn’t go wrong with hedging in the form of the double chance – at least not if you still get betting odds over 1.70 for it.
Badest home team vs. worst away team
Of course Hertha are the worst away team in the Bundesliga, winning just one of eleven away games and losing nine. But let’s take Gladbach as an example.
They travelled to Sinsheim at the end of January and had not won any of their eight away games this season. The first away win came at TSG with 4:1, which was followed by three clear away defeats with 1:11 goals.
Hertha also lost their last three away games with 2:11 goals. Looking further back, the Capitals have even lost the last seven Bundesliga games away from home.
And yet, unlike their opponents, they have at least managed to pick up points at home recently. The Herthans have picked up seven points from their last three home games.
Berlin can fall to last place
Last weekend Hertha took at least one point from Mainz, who had previously won four in a row. It should be at least one on Saturday as well, although the real goal is of course three points.
With the seven points from the last five games, the Old Lady has taken as many as in the previous eleven games. With a total of 21 points, BSC is just about in the first non-relegation spot.
The last time the Berliners had fewer points after 24 matchdays was in the 2009/2010 season. At that time, the capital city team could no longer be saved and was ultimately relegated.
The current lead over Stuttgart and Schalke is one point, that over Hoffenheim two points. This means that with one point, the Berliners could slip into the relegation zone, and if they lose, they could even take over the red lantern.
Not only in 2010, but also two years later in 2012, Hertha were relegated from the Bundesliga. Both times they managed an immediate return.
Since the Berliners’ resurgence in 2013, Hoffenheim have won ten of a total of 19 meetings in the Bundesliga. In this period, the Kraichgauers have only beaten FC Augsburg more often.
In any case, TSG have not beaten any other Bundesliga club at home as often as Hertha. In twelve home duels with the Old Lady so far, there have been seven victories.
The Kraichgauer have lost only one of the last eight home games against the BSC. But: Last year, the Berliners remained unbeaten. They won the second leg of last season 3:0 and the first leg of this season was a 1-1 draw – both in the capital.
My Hoffenheim Hertha tip:
Surely some statistics speak for TSG – and if they don’t win even the home match against the worst away team in the Bundesliga, then maybe nothing will work in the future.
And yet I don’t expect a home win. For me, the Berliners have made the better overall impression recently and they can’t afford a defeat in a direct duel either.
1899 lost their last four Bundesliga games with only one goal difference. But a clear affair for one of the two clubs is not to be expected here anyway.
I see minimal advantages for the guests – and if there are odds for them beyond the 3.00 mark, then betting on the Berliners with the appropriate hedging is almost a must.
Therefore, my Hoffenheim Hertha tip is: Double Chance X2.