Inter Milan – AC Milan Tip
A 2-0 lead in the semi-finals of the top flight? That’s what pundits often call half the battle! In our UEFA Champions League tips, the Milan derby gets a makeover this evening.
Inter shocked their city rivals with a 2-0 win just a few days ago, scoring both goals straight from the kick-off. Afterwards, the black and blue pulled up the defence at the back, there was no getting past them.
The two teams will now meet a second time in prime time, this time Inter will have more fans with them at home in the San Siro. But will anything go wrong, given that their opponents are not only out of form in the CL?
At Betano, the home side are therefore also in front, the values come to a 2.00 to 3.80. Of course, the bookies know that Milan would not only need a win, but would have to score at least a lead of two goals.
In my Inter Milan AC Milan tip, I will now reveal why I don’t think the Rossoneri can achieve this feat and also believe that we will have to deal with relatively few goals, just like in the first leg!
The bookmaker forecast
Inter don’t have to, but of course want to! Our bookmakers know about the advantage, but still send them in with favoured odds of 2.00 on a fourth derby win in a row.
Milan must not only win, but really catch up. The pure win odds average a 3.80, but what about advancing? Here the values go well above 10.0!
A draw would not help the “guests” at all, while Inter would easily advance. So will the Nerazzurri line up at the back to drive home the 0:0? In any case, a draw would bring odds of 3.40.
Analysis: Inter Milan vs AC Milan
Inter Milan in the final of the 2023 Champions League? If fans, players and officials had been asked this question before this season, quite a few would probably have just shaken their heads in laughter.
The final has not yet been reached, but let’s be honest: does an Italian team really let itself take a 2-0 lead? In the 2018/19 season, it was the first and only time in the history of the top flight that such a deficit was turned around.
FC Barcelona won 3-0 at home against Liverpool, but went down 4-0 at home and were out. But is this fact a good omen for AC Milan?
Striker Divock Origi scored twice for Liverpool, now he should do the same for the Rossoneri. All in all, it should look good for the first CL final since 2010, which ended with a 2-0 win over Bayern.
Speaking of Bayern, they are the only team to have won against Inter at the San Siro in 2022/23. After surviving the group stage, the Italians had double the luck of the draw.
Odds Analysis
In terms of 1×2 betting, I actually don’t necessarily expect a winner. Inter can take it slow, while Milan have to push for a quick 1-0. Therefore, I think the draw is very well invested.
Defensively, the black-and-blue team is not so easily fooled in the top flight, and in this competition both teams almost never score. Therefore, I would recommend betting again on a “Under 2.5 goals” at odds of 1.75.
At the same time, this leads me to consider the result bets at Bet365. A 1:1 is an ideal match for my first two picks, so if you’re a risk taker, you can look forward to odds of 6.00.
Will Inter keep the score level?
First Porto, then Benfica Lisbon, there would have been other calibres for Inter in the last 16 and quarter-finals! 1-0 and 0-0 against the Dragons, efficiency and minimalism saw them through to the last eight.
They won 2-0 away against Benfica, a victory that laid the foundations for reaching the semi-finals. A crazy 3:3, which really doesn’t suit Inter at all, completed the list of results.
There had also been this result against Barca in the preliminary round, but all the other eleven matches did without a “both teams meet”. In addition, there have been less than 2.5 goals eight times.
Milan is out of form
In Serie A, Inter will battle Juventus Torino to see who will finish third. They won their domestic dress rehearsal 4-2 against Sassuolo, so a strong finish is still possible here.
Five wins with 18 goals, the offensive showed recently what it can be capable of. 2:0, 1:0, 3:0? Whether it’s the Coppa, the league or the top flight, the last three encounters against Milan have all been won by zero!
So it will be a very, very difficult task for Milan to somehow turn the tables and make it to the final. For the first semi-final since 2008, the fans had hoped for something different, but their hopes have dwindled.
The red and black are only fifth in Serie A, the gap to a CL place is already four points. Three wins from the last eleven games, it’s no wonder at all that the defending champions are faltering.
Last weekend they lost 0:2 against relegation candidates Spezia Calcio, not exactly the best prerequisites for the all-important derby this Tuesday.
After a mixed group stage, Milan finished second to Chelsea and left RB Salzburg and Dinamo Zagreb behind them, they have been very effective. The first victim: Tottenham Hotspur.
1:0 at home and 0:0 on the island, a single goal was enough to advance. Things were not much different in the quarter-finals, where a 1-0 lead against Napoli resulted in a 1-1 draw.
For five games, then, there has been a maximum of two goals, which fits in perfectly with what Inter is doing in Europe. Is it a problem that there has only been one win away from home?
No, because Milan are playing in their own stadium today. In any case, the personnel component is one that clearly militates against catching up.
Rafael Leao will probably be absent for the second leg, and Junior Messias and Rade Krunic have also pulled out. It will therefore be more than difficult to get through the Champions League semi-finals after all.
My Inter AC Milan tip:
Inter Milan have done their duty, it wouldn’t be too much of a surprise if the black and blue now focus very much on defence in the second leg without launching many attacks themselves.
Milan are missing some important players, especially in the offensive the air is getting thin. The recent direct comparison has also shown that Inter have been ahead for quite some time.
As a result, I don’t expect the home side to lose at all, nor do I expect a spectacle. In summary, I opt for the following tip:
Inter will not lose by less than 3.5 goals!
