Inter Milan – Benfica Lisbon Tip
It’s still too early to throw in the towel. But what was that ruthless performance of Milan a week ago?
Simone Inzaghi’s men were ice-cold in taking advantage of their chances, trampling on the nimbus of invincibility that still lay intact over the Estadio da Luz.
Meanwhile, in my Inter Milan Benfica tip, there is little room for a big surprise. In fact, I expect the Nerazzurri not to leave the pitch as losers in their fifth clash with Lisbon.
There are more exciting quarterfinal second legs in this hot Champions League phase, but a winning Inter Milan Benfica tip can still be easily applied.
In order to get to the bottom of just such a promising soccer bet, I used the data and facts available to me. In the process, my impression that Benfica needs a sensation, which would have to take on “historic features”, was substantiated.
Personally, by the way, I’m not convinced that there will be many goals scored at the Giuseppe Meazza tonight, even if the visitors naturally have every reason to go on the attack early.
The bookmaker forecast
The performance about a week ago at the Estadio da Luz seems to have made an impression. Because the sports betting providers are now trading the Milanese as clear favorites, while the first leg was still considered an even affair.
With Inter Milan Benfica odds averaging 2.12, 3.50 and 3.60 for a home win, a draw and an away win respectively, it’s much easier to see the Italians favored on the markets this time around.
Analysis: Inter Milan vs Benfica Lisbon
Many bookmakers are going with great free bets on this pairing in the second leg as well. Meanwhile, around a week ago, quite a few pundits were expecting an outstanding performance from the Portuguese side in their own stadium ground.
Although the Eagles were visibly eager and occasionally able to move the ball forward cleverly through fast passing relays, but the very big scoring threat could not be generated in front of the Milanese box nevertheless.
With a minimal xG-value advantage of 1.75 to 1.67 in favor of the Portuguese, you just have to hand it to the Italians that they were once again ice-cold with their chances.
But also because Joao Mario – on whom most of the hopes of the SLB fans rested – caused an unnecessary hand penalty, which you just can’t afford to miss against such a cool team.
Romelu Lukaku thanked for this carelessness shortly before the end with a converted penalty, which should have reduced the chances of the Portuguese on the round of the last four but so what.
This is the ninth time that Inter has won the first leg of a Champions League knockout phase by a two-goal difference – and what makes it so special? The Neroazzurri have never been knocked out in the second leg.
Quote analysis
0:0, 1:0, 1:1 – this is the spectrum of possible outcomes that I consider most likely in my Inter Milan Benfica Lisbon prediction.
Besides my Inter Milan Benfica Lisbon tip from the headline, I would also advise lovers of the famous “bet builder function” to spread their risk well.
What is meant is a sub-3.5 goal bet in combination with a double chance 1X bet, which is traded at a combo odds of about 1.83 at most betting sites with PayPal.
Analysts are already writing off Benfica!
One accusation the Portuguese must surely face is that they have shown nerves several times in the past, despite all their undeniable playing qualities, especially in crucial games like the one a week ago.
Now Benfica may currently be unbeaten for seven Champions League away games in a row, but on Wednesday they would still have to accomplish something they haven’t managed in over 50 years.
For the 9th time in this competition, Lisbon has lost the first leg of a knockout round match by more than a two-goal difference, and only once have they managed a comeback at the back!
We’re talking about the clash with 1. FC Nürnberg in the quarter-finals of the 1961/62 season, when the Franconians suddenly found themselves 6-0 down after a 3-1 win in the first leg.
Benfica too inexperienced?
The accusation that the Portuguese, for all their technical skills on the ball, might lack that last bit of cunning to get themselves out of difficult-to-defend situations even without a foul is perfectly justified.
The best example of this? Since the start of the 2016/17 season, Benfica (13) have caused the second most penalties in the Champions League after Paris St. Germain (17).
A goal bet on Romelu Lukaku at currently 2.55 as part of a corresponding Bet365 sports bet could be worthwhile not only because the Belgian would score a penalty due.
In fact, from the Inter striker also so a lot of goal danger! After all, Lukaku has already scored 9 goals in just 14 appearances for Milan in this competition.
Only four players in the history of the northern Italian club have scored more goals for the Nerazzurri after a comparable number of CL appearances: Adriano (14), Julio Cruz (13), Hernán Crespo (11) and Samuel Eto’o (10).
Meanwhile, euphoria is running high in the Italian fashion capital as Simone Inzaghi could lead the Nerazzurri to just their ninth Champions League advance beyond the quarterfinals.
But the really special thing about this is that Inzaghi could become the first Italian Inter coach since the 1980/81 season to achieve this feat.
My Inter Benfica tip:
The morale of the Portuguese has certainly reached an all-time low after the first leg. After all, after losing 2-0, Inter would have to be knocked out of a CL knockout stage for the first time in their club’s history equipped with such a lead.
Moreover, the Nerazzurri stood very solidly in the first leg and it is quite possible that the guests – who, of course, have to take the initiative – will despair unsuccessfully of catenaccio a week later as well.
Even in turn, the Italians could once again set the few but highly efficient offensive accents to end up narrowly ahead again.
My Inter Milan Benfica Lisbon prediction: Under 2.5 goals.
