Miami Masters, 2nd Round, Saturday, 25/03/2023
Saturday it comes to the duel of two young talents. Jiri Lehecka will meet Lorenzo Musetti in the second round of the Miami Masters. The Italian is seeded in the Sunshine State and only now has to enter the tournament.
Lehecka won against Federico Coria in two sets. Lorenzo Musetti, however, is a tougher task. In my Lehecka – Musetti tip, I discuss whether he can master it?
I was right on the money with my tip on Jiri Lehecka’s first-round match.
Two early breaks to start the sets set up the Czech’s 6-3, 6-4 win. He was commanding in his own service games. The Argentinean did not have a single break opportunity.
Only three of the 35 points after Lehecka’s first serve could Coria convert into a point for himself. In total, Lehecka hit nine aces on hardcourt. It is also impressive that 69 per cent of all first serves came.
The form seems to be right in the Sunshine State. However, Coria has not really been a benchmark as an almost pure clay court player.
Although his upcoming opponent Musetti also has the highest winning percentage on the red clay, he has more qualities on the hard court than the Argentine.
In general, the 21-year-old from Carrara, Italy, is stronger on paper and is ranked 21st in the world.
Lehecka is currently 23 places behind, but is the favourite according to the bookmakers due to his strong matches against Musetti in the past months.
The quarter-finalist at this year’s Australian Open has odds of 1.40 to win at Bet365, while a bet on Musetti (3.00) could triple the stake if he wins.
A practical feature at Bet365 is that you can follow all the matches of the Miami Masters live via livestream, including all the men’s and women’s matches as well as the doubles duels.
It is unusual for a player who is significantly better than his opponent in the world rankings to be allocated 3.00 odds.
But apart from the fact that Lehecka has only been playing regularly in the pros since the spring of last year and that he is just climbing further up the rankings, Musetti’s recent poor form also plays a role.
Musetti has only won one of his last seven matches. At the Australian Open, he lost to Lloyd Harris in round one.
In Buenos Aires, he beat Pedro Cachin before Juan Pablo Varillas (6-4, 6-4) eliminated Musetti from the tournament in the quarter-finals.
Two more first-round losses followed on clay in Rio (vs Nicolas Jarry 4-6, 1-6) and in the Chilean capital Santiago (vs Jaume Munar 4-6, 4-6).
In Indian Wells, he was back on a hard court for the first time in two months, but also lost there in two sets in his first match (vs Adrian Mannarino 4-6, 4-6).
The last few matches give Musetti fans little hope of success against Lehecka, who had also lost four of his last five matches before his win over Coria, but showed a marked improvement in performance against Coria.
Striking: All eleven two-set win matches also ended after two sets. According to these statistics, a bet on “Exactly 2 sets” in the match would be fitting. Betano offers odds of 1.57.
In the first and only meeting between the two players, however, the bet would have missed. Lehecka won in February 2022 in Rotterdam after three sets (6-3, 1-6, 7-5).
Summary: Lehecka put on a commanding performance against Coria, did not allow any break chances, secured an early break at the beginning of the sets and played towards victory without any danger.
Musetti’s recent matches have been quite different, and he is in a crisis of form with six losses from seven matches. Can he get out of it against the Czech?
I doubt it and expect Lehecka to win the match in two sets. This is why I recommend a 2:0 win in my Lehecka – Musetti tip.