Bayer Leverkusen – FC Bayern betting tips
Fc Bayern were faced with important decisions for the 2022/23 season last week, but with a quarter-final spot in the Champions League against PSG and a three-goal win against Augsburg, the Munich side solved both tasks with flying colours.
Thus, the German record champions can continue to dream of a seventh national championship and royal class title. In addition, they extended their lead in the Bundesliga over their only rival Dortmund to two points.
The FCB is also in the quarter-finals of the DFB Cup. Basically, with eight wins from the last nine competitive matches, the Nagelsmann eleven is in form just in time for a hot April.
The aim is to keep BVB at bay on Sunday. In the guest game at the BayArena, the Bavarians will meet a former player. Xabi Alonso wore the Munich jersey from 2014 to 2017 and was a three-time champion and one-time DFB-Pokal winner with the club.
As coach of the Werkself, the Spaniard will now face his old employer for the first time. After the 4-0 defeat in the first leg, his predecessor Gerardo Seoane was sacked.
For the bookies, the visitors are naturally favoured. I also come to a similar conclusion with my Leverkusen Bayern tip and play the bet “Win Bayern & Over 1.5 goals” with odds of 1.67 at provider Happybet.
The betting provider’s forecast?
Not surprisingly, the betting providers side with the Leverkusen Bayern forecast on the side of the guests. This starting position is primarily based on the standings.
In addition, the Munich team does not have an “English week” in its bones. Bayer 04 had to play Ferencvaros Budapest in the last 16 of the Europa League on Thursday.
Thus, a home win for the home side on Sunday will be rewarded with odds averaging 4.94. On the other hand, the record champions are the clear favourites for a three-goal win with average odds of 1.60 from the bookmakers’ point of view.
Analysis: Leverkusen vs Bayern
On Thursday night, Bayer advanced to the quarter-finals of the Europa League against Ferencvaros in highly deserved and commanding fashion. After a 2-0 win at home, the Werkself also won the second leg 2-0 in Budapest.
An early lead played into the visitors’ hands. On the last league matchday in Bremen, coach Xabi Alonso had spared some regulars with a view to the European Cup.
The tactic worked out in the end with a 3:2 victory. On the one hand, because Werder made too many mistakes in defence and did not use their chances as consistently as B04.
In addition, Mitchel Bakker and Adam Hlozek, two players who had come off the bench, scored. So with 10 points from the last five league games, the club can hope for international business after all.
Place 6 is only six points away. Leverkusen had picked up just nine points from the first 12 games of this Bundesliga season. Then Xavi Alonso took over the team in 17th place.
Bayer then collected 25 points from the following twelve games, almost as many as FC Bayern (27). The new coach also optimised the team’s finishing efficiency (from -3.3 to +8.5).
In the second half of the season, however, B04 is still waiting for a game without conceding a goal. Since matchday 17, no first division team has conceded more goals from standards than the Werkself (6).
Only Lunev and Aranguiz are missing against Bayern. Schick and Bellarabi are questionable.
The comparison between Bayer and Bayern gives hope for goals. In the last 12 competitive match duels between the two clubs, an average of exactly 4 goals per game were scored.
In the last three guest games in the Bay Arena, the Munich side always came away victorious, but never without conceding a goal. Moreover, in 10 of the past 12 encounters, the ball has always found its way into the net on both sides.
These facts also have an effect on the Leverkusen Bayern preview. For example, there is only an average of 1.41 for more than 2.5 goals, and the “Yes” option in the “Both teams score” betting market only gets an average of 1.50.
Since the record champions have always scored at least twice in their last 6 league matches, the bet “Bayern over 1.5 goals” would certainly also be an interesting option.
Broad FCB squad pays off
After the first leg against PSG, Bayern coach Julian Nagelsmann had changed his starting eleven in five positions against Gladbach and ended up conceding a 3-2 defeat against the Foals.
After the return match against the Parisians, the coach again opted for five changes at home against Augsburg. This time, however, the strategy paid off with a 5:3 victory.
The fresh forces from the bench even made the difference this time, collected some assist points and were personally responsible for four of the five goals.
In addition, the Fuggerstädter’s actually courageous approach of pressing high in the Allianz Arena opened up large spaces for the home side. In the end, the victory turned out to be too low.
Nagelsmann is called upon as moderator
The three goals conceded were somewhat negative. After the 4:1 half-time score, the Munich team had become too sloppy defensively. In 7 games of the second half of the season, the FCB has already conceded 10 goals.
Just in time for the exciting month of April, in which decisive decisions will be made in the competitions, coach Julian Nagelsmann can almost draw on a full complement of players.
The substitutes’ bench, which is hard to top in Europe, is finally coming into its own for Bayern. For the coach, however, it is now a matter of keeping the numerous stars happy.
The visitors will only be without Neuer and Hernandez on Sunday. Choupo-Moting is still a bit of a question mark
After 96 duels, Bayern clearly lead the comparison against Bayer. The Munich team has won 59 times and conceded only 19 defeats. FCB has been unbeaten against B04 for seven matches.
During this period, the Werkself has only picked up one point. They have also lost four of their last five home games against the record champions at the BayArena.
Since a 3-1 home win in February 2019, Leverkusen have waited three home games for a point against Bayern. The club has been one of Munich’s favourite opponents since Bayer’s promotion in 1979.
Only against VfB has FCB celebrated more victories (58) and scored more points (183) than against Bayer 04 (52, 173) in that period.
My Leverkusen Bayern tip:
Surely Bayer are in good form with five wins and one draw from their last six competitive matches. But in recent years, there was not much to get for the Werkself against Bayern.
It almost didn’t matter what Leverkusen’s form was like or where they were in the table. I think the Rhinelanders will go away empty-handed against the FCB this time as well.
However, the current defensive performance of the record champion suggests that the spectators can look forward to a few goals. My Leverkusen Bayern prediction is therefore: Victory Bayern & Over 1.5 goals!