Mainz – Freiburg Tip
After the elimination in the Europa League, everyday life in the Bundesliga continues for SC Freiburg. On Sunday evening, the team that was defeated by Juventus Turin has to face FSV Mainz 05.
Not an easy task, because like Freiburg, Mainz have not lost their last five matches in Germany’s top division.
Whose streak will be broken on Sunday? In my Mainz Freiburg tip I give you a prediction with suitable odds for the match.
The international trip is over for SC Freiburg with the 0:2 in the second leg against Juventus Turin. But there is no shame in being eliminated against the Italian record champions.
Moreover, Christian Streich’s team put in a strong performance when shorthanded. The mentality is right and can help them qualify for European competition again.
The betting companies’ forecast
Currently Freiburg are fifth in the Europa League, level on points with RB Leipzig and Union Berlin.
Eintracht Frankfurt have five points less in sixth, followed by Mainz 05 in seventh, which is expected to be enough to qualify for the Europa Conference League.
On Sunday, Sportclub will do their utmost not to let their nine-point lead over the team from Rhineland-Palatinate shrink.
But the team had two intense games during the week in the past two weeks. In the second half against Torino, ten Freiburg players even had to run for eleven as Manuel Gulde saw yellow just before the interval whistle.
Mainz will be fresher. The betting providers know this, too, for whom FSV are slight favourites with odds of 2.10. An away win for Freiburg is at 3.30, a draw at 3.50, values from Bet365.
Analysis: Mainz vs Freiburg
Lately, there have been three Freiburg wins from five matches in the league. The compulsory tasks against the basement teams Stuttgart (2:1), Bochum (2:0) and most recently against Hoffenheim (2:1) were mastered.
A point was taken against Bayer Leverkusen (1:1) and Borussia Mönchengladbach (0:0). There were a surprising number of sending-offs in Freiburg’s games.
Manuel Gulde was the fifth player from the last nine matches to see the red card in the match against Juventus. However, it was only twice players of the Sportclub who were sent off.
Freiburg were more stable away from home after the heavy defeats at Wolfsburg (0:6) and Dortmund (1:5).
The Black Forest side conceded just one goal in their next four away games, a 1-0 defeat against Torino.
Quote analysis
Accordingly, a bet on under 1.5 goals for Mainz could be considered. At Bet3000, this market could be played at 1.65 odds. For the riskier variant, that Mainz do not score at all, there would even be odds of 3.80.
Important for a strong defence is the use of central defender Philipp Lienhart, who could not yet return in the second leg against Juventus, but should be back against Mainz.
Daniel-Kofi Kyereh and Woo-yeong and Jeong, on the other hand, will not be in the squad. But Mainz 05 also have absentees on Sunday.
Strong home record of FSV Mainz 05
Three centre forwards are absent: Jonathan Burkhardt, Karim Onisiwo and Marlon Mustapha. In addition, right winger Barjan Gruda is missing.
In the calendar year 2023, Mainz have only lost at home against Dortmund (1:2) and against FC Bayern (0:4) in the DFB Cup.
Mainz celebrated four home victories against Bochum (5:2), Augsburg (3:1), Mönchengladbach (4:0) and Hoffenheim (1:0).
Freiburg with only one win in Mainz since 2009
On average, the carnival club loses only every fourth match in front of their own crowd. However, this contrasts with a strong away record for Freiburg, who have only suffered four defeats in twelve away appearances.
In the first leg, SC Freiburg won 2:1. A look at the history in the duel makes it clear that the Breisgauers do not like to travel to the 05ers.
Since 2009, they have only managed one away win from 13 matches, and that came in January 2020. However, in their last five appearances as guests, it was also the only one in which Freiburg managed to score at all.
With this meagre record, a 0-0 or narrow 1-0 win for Mainz would also be conceivable.
Fittingly, a bet on the “double chance 1X” (1.35 odds) could be chosen, a suitable bet for a combination ticket on Sunday.
Should Freiburg struggle more and more with fitness after the first half and Mainz can take advantage of it, especially in the second half, a bet (1.60) on “Mainz win one of the halves” at Bet3000 is worthwhile in advance.
My Mainz Freiburg tip:
Mainz 05 definitely have a freshness advantage on Sunday, but continue to struggle with many lapses in the offensive. However, the 05ers have been able to compensate impressively in recent weeks with four wins from five matches.
SC Freiburg, however, also remained unbeaten in their last five league matches, picking up only one three-pointer less than FSV. Apart from the freshness factor, it will also be a question of how quickly the Sportclub can mentally recover from the Europa League exit.
Overall, however, it should not be ignored that Freiburg still have more quality in their squad and have been able to cope well with the double burden so far this season.
But in the fourth game within two weeks, the legs are likely to get heavier in the second round at the latest and Mainz could capitalise on that.
Therefore, in my Mainz Freiburg tip, I opt for the bet “Over 0.5 Mainz goals in the second half”.
