La Liga, Thursday, 25.05.2023
On Thursday evening RCD Mallorca and Valencia FC will meet. The team from the Balearic island is unbeaten for five home games and of course wants to extend this series.
Valencia have managed to free themselves from the relegation zone with two recent wins, but are not yet saved and need to collect more points to stay in the relegation zone. Will they succeed?
In my Mallorca Valencia tip, I provide a prediction.
The fans of RCD Mallorca have had a fairly relaxed season. At virtually every point, their team was in the safe midfield.
Especially at the home Estadi de Son Moix, the club has been busy scoring. Mallorca scored 29 of their 44 points on the island.
Overall, Javier Aguirre’s team has only suffered four defeats in 17 home games this season. Mallorca are currently unbeaten at home in five matches.
The most recent victories were against Getafe (3:1) and against Cadiz (1:0). Points were also shared against Real Sociedad (1-1), Bilbao (1-1) and Osasuna (0-0).
As good as it was at home, the results were poor away from home. Against Atletico Madrid (1:3), Girona (1:2) and Almeria (0:3), Kang-in Lee and Co struggled as usual
In all three defeats, Mallorca struggled with their usually stable defence. Nevertheless, RCD is the team with the fewest goals conceded in the lower half of the table.
However, RCD’s compact style of play also means that they do not create many chances themselves. For seven matches in a row, Mallorca have scored less than ten goals.
Accordingly, after Osasuna, the fewest goals are scored in La Liga in the games of the current home side. The neutral spectator was often not offered much action with 2.09 goals per match.
At home, it is even only 1.76 goals per game. However, Mallorca has the second best home defence after the already official champions FC Barcelona. 28 of the 40 goals conceded were given to Mallorca on away trips.
Despite the good home record, Mallorca remains only the outsider’s role with the betting providers. At odds of 3.30, the RCD victory can be played. The slight favourite is Valencia (2.45).
Because of the meagre goal record, the oddsmakers do not expect many goals on Thursday evening. Bet3000 already offers 1.55 for over 1.5 goals.
The classic “Over 2.5 goals” would even almost triple the stake in case of success. This bet would have worked in three of Valencia’s last five games.
In addition to the victories against Valladolid (2:1) and Celta Vigo (2:1), there was a 1:2 defeat against Cadiz. In recent weeks, the team from the port city has shown itself capable of scoring in any case.
Six times in a row Valencia have scored at least once in front of the opponent’s box. Last Sunday’s success caused quite a stir.
The 21-year-old Diego Lopez, who normally plays for the second team, scored his first La Liga goal against Real Madrid in a 1-0 win.
This was already the second win in a row. The six-time Spanish champions had already bagged three points at Celta Vigo the previous week.
Will the match in Mallorca now be game number four without defeat? Betano is offering odds of just 1.35 on the Double Chance X2. The bet becomes lucrative in combination with over 1.5 goals (2.10).
If you want to hedge a low-scoring 1:0 for the visitors, you could also bet the Double Chance X2 & over 0.5 goals for Valencia. For this constellation Betano offers a 1.60 with the help of the Bet Builder.
In Valencia’s last away match in Mallorca (0:1), this bet would have been a direct hit. All in all, the recent record between the teams is quite even.
Valencia have won four times, Mallorca three – and the points have been shared just as often.
At least two goals have been scored in 14 of the last 15 games, which puts the bet on over 1.5 goals in a better light.
Summary: Valencia travels to home strong RCD Mallorca with a big chest after the win against Real Madrid. After the last performances, I firmly expect Valencia to take home something countable.
At the same time, despite the poor goal average in games on the Balearic island, I think “over 1.5 goals” is a good bet. This is also because 14 of the last 15 matches have ended with at least two goals.
Therefore, in my Mallorca Valencia tip I recommend the combination of Double Chance X2 and over 1.5 goals in the match.