Manchester City – Inter Milan Tip
There you go! Manchester City and Inter Milan will face each other in the 2023 Champions League final.
For the English, it’s not least about the triple – Pep Guardiola’s team has already won the FA Cup and the Premier League. Inter, on the other hand, have their sights set on the double of the top flight and the Coppa Italia.
In my Man City Inter tip, however, I will show that I don’t give the Italians any real chance of winning the Champions League against the Skyblues.
Instead, I expect a dominant performance from the Citizens and therefore have my sights set on a Manchester win with a handicap of -1 (2.20 @Bet365). Accordingly, my CL final prediction focuses not least on the different approach to the game of both teams.
In fact, a Champions League final is likely in which the English have the majority of possession on their own side, while the Italians rely on their defensive skills.
Beyond that, however, I will of course cite other statistics that come into play for various betting alternatives.
After all, it should come as no surprise to anyone that our bookmakers are bringing out the big guns with their odds on the CL final and making lucrative bets possible.
My tip for betting fans will therefore not least be about analysing the odds situation so that nothing is left to chance on Saturday evening. First of all, we will start with the classic 1×2 odds.
Manchester City vs. Inter – Bookmaker Prediction
At first glance it is clear that our bookmakers do not expect a duel of equals between Manchester City and Inter Milan.
With odds of around 1.50, the Skyblues are clear favourites to win the match.
An Inter win, on the other hand, is given much higher odds of over 6.50. It is quite unusual for a CL final bet that even a draw has odds beyond the 4.50 mark.
Analysis: Man City vs Inter
However, this odds situation does not come by chance. Manchester City have simply been the best team in Europe in recent months.
In the Premier League, they scored 94 goals in 38 games and ultimately won the title with a commanding five-point lead over Arsenal London. They also recently beat Manchester United 2-1 in the FA Cup final and are thus on the verge of the first treble in the club’s history.
It fits in with the picture that the Citizens have not really shown any weakness during the course of the top flight. In the preliminary round, 14 of 18 possible points were scored.
In the following knockout rounds, they had no major problems with RB Leipzig, FC Bayern and Real Madrid. Once again, the main reason for their emergence as favourites for the title was their attack.
In those six games, the English scored 17 goals. Unsurprisingly, Erling Haaland was City’s hottest target.
The Premier League’s top scorer (36 goals) has scored 12 goals in the top flight so far and will be in the spotlight against Inter Milan. For at least one Haaland goal in the Champions League final, the bookmakers are calling odds of around 1.60.
One of the central questions is: Can Inter Milan cope with the concentrated offensive power of the Skyblues at the Ataturk Olympic Stadium? For a start, the bare statistics speak in favour of Simone Inzaghi’s team.
In the twelve games they have played so far this CL season, Milan have not conceded a goal eight times. Particularly impressive: In the round of 16, quarter-finals and semi-finals, they have kept a clean sheet five times.
Only the 3:3 in the quarter-final second leg against Benfica Lisbon does not really fit into the picture. However, it could also be argued that the Italians benefited to a certain extent from the luck of the draw.
With FC Porto, Benfica and city rivals Milan, the road to the final was noticeably easier than that of Manchester City.
Added to this is the fact that Inter did not really have an outstanding season in their home Serie A. They ended up with 18 points. In the end, they finished 18 points behind champions Napoli. Twelve defeats and 42 goals conceded do not speak the language of an absolute top team.
It is therefore not surprising that the betting companies are offering comparatively high odds of 2.35 for “less than 1.5 goals against Inter” with a view to a possible CL final bet.
Odds analysis
So the odds for a Champions League final with over 2.5 goals are in an average range at around 1.75. Given the starting position, however, the tip has a positive value.
The counterpart “Under 2.5 goals” with odds of 2.10 is already a risky bet. On the other hand, the classic “Both teams score” is interesting.
If you think that Inter will score at least one goal as well as City, you can do very well with odds just below 2,00. However, I consider a win for the Citizens to nil quite realistic. The odds for this (2.32) are also extremely lucrative.
For all City sceptics, it is worth taking a look at the half-time bets. If the English really do have problems with the Italian defensive bulwark, a draw at half-time comes into focus. The CL final odds of around 2.40 are clearly worthwhile here.
Inter with more finals experience
The only thing that speaks against Manchester City is their limited experience in finals. In fact, the Citizens are playing in only their third European Cup final ever.
In addition to the Champions League final in the 2020/21 season (0:1 against Chelsea), there is the final of the European Cup Winners’ Cup in the 1969/70 season (2:1 against Górnik Zabrze).
Inter, on the other hand, are in their 11th European Cup final. The last time they lost the Europa League final was in the 2019/20 season against Sevilla FC.
Their last European Cup triumph dates back to 2010. Under José Mourinho, the Italians won the Champions League 13 years ago with a 2-0 win over Bayern.
Historic chance for Guardiola
A look at the direct comparison brings to light an astonishing fact. Manchester City and Inter Milan will meet for the first time ever in a competitive match on Saturday. Our statistics only show two friendlies from 2010 and 2011, in which each team won once with 3:0.
Overall, the Skyblues’ contact with Serie A is limited. They currently have six wins, six draws and four defeats.
Inter, on the other hand, have already played 45 duels with English teams. With 17 victories and 19 defeats, the record is by no means outstanding.
There have already been four European Cup finals in which an English-Italian comparison has taken place.
Curiously, the English side has been represented on each occasion by Liverpool FC, who have been successful twice in these matches (1984 against AS Roma, 2007 against Milan).
The Champions League final also has a very special significance for Pep Guardiola.
The City coach has reached the final of the Champions League for the fourth time. Only Real Madrid coach Carlo Ancelotti has one more final appearance to his name.
Guardiola could also become the fifth coach to win the CL with two different clubs, having won the trophy with FC Barcelona in 2009 and 2011.
The other four coaches: Carlo Ancelotti (Milan, Real), José Mourinho (Porto, Inter), Jupp Heynckes (Real, Bayern) and Ottmar Hitzfeld (BVB, Bayern).
My Man City Inter tip:
Admittedly, Inter Milan have been extremely strong defensively over the course of the Champions League season.
However, the comparatively easy opponents in the knockout phase and the mixed Serie A season leave a slight aftertaste.
Manchester City, on the other hand, have been convincing across the board and are undisputedly the best team in Europe offensively. It is therefore unlikely that Inter will continue their run of zero wins in the final.
Rather, I assume that the Milanese will simply reach their limits against Manchester City – similar to Real Madrid or FC Bayern.
My Man City Inter tip is therefore: The Citizens win the CL final with a handicap of -1!
