Manchester City – Real Madrid Tip
Sounds strange, but could come true: Although Real Madrid made a strong impression in the Champions League semi-final first leg against Manchester City and were closer to victory than the Citizens in the end, there is something to be said for a semi-final knockout of the royals.
After the 1-1 draw, Manchester finally have everything in their own hands and home advantage on their side on Wednesday night.
However, my Man City Real Madrid tip does not focus on a classic 1×2 bet.
Rather, I assume that both teams – unlike at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu – will be much more determined on the offensive and score more than 2.5 goals in total.
The English team’s home statistics are not the least of the factors that come into focus here. After all, City is a real goal machine, especially at the Etihad Stadium.
Moreover, Real are unlikely to succeed in taking Erling Haaland out of the game again. I also have at least one Haaland goal on my list as a betting alternative.
At the same time, I don’t believe in a win for the Citizens and I think Real will score at least one goal, so “over 2.5 goals” is a very solid bet.
Before I get into the actual statistical analysis, however, I’d like to take a look at the odds offered by the major betting companies.
The bookmaker forecast
The bookmakers answer the question about the role of favourites for the semi-final second leg with a good slap in the face for the Madrilenians.
Bwin and Co. don’t think the Spaniards have a realistic chance of winning away from home and give Real a crushing 5.10 odds to win. The odds for a draw are also telling.
Here, the value climbs above the 4.00 mark and thus to a clearly above-average value. A win for the Citizens, meanwhile, is only offered with odds of around 1.60.
Analysis: Man City vs Real Madrid
In principle, the clear odds situation is understandable. After all, Real Madrid is facing an extremely strong opponent in Manchester City. On the other hand, Pep Guardiola’s team is in outstanding form.
Indeed, the Skyblues have not conceded a single defeat since the 0:1 against Tottenham at the beginning of February. In the entire 2023 calendar year, there have been only three defeats.
They have won 15 of their last 17 games. City have also scored at least two goals in six of their last seven matches. In any case, attack is Manchester’s hobbyhorse.
In the Premier League, they have scored 92 goals after 35 games. In the Champions League, they scored 14 goals in their six group matches.
In the last 16 and quarter-finals they scored 12 more. It is therefore simply unrealistic for City to go without a goal of their own against Real.
As the leading scorer in England (36) and the top flight (12), Erling Haaland is the most likely to score. The odds for at least one Haaland goal can be found around 1.65 in the respective offers.
Real Madrid are far from such statistics at the moment. In fact, Carlo Ancelotti’s team is having a rather disappointing season in the Primera Division.
With a 14-point gap to new champions Barcelona, the title train left the station weeks ago. Recently, they even temporarily lost second place in the table to city rivals Atletico.
What is striking is not least the defensive vulnerability. Real has already conceded 32 goals in La Liga. By comparison, Barca have 13, so it fits in with the picture that the Madrilenians have only conceded once in the last six games.
In the top flight, they have conceded only nine goals after a total of 11 games.
However, it is unlikely that Real will be able to hold their own in Manchester. It is more likely that Benzema and Co. will play their part in a high-scoring encounter overall.
Odds Analysis
This impression is of course also reflected in the respective odds on the goals.
Thus, our bookmakers generally assume that both Manchester City and Real Madrid will score at least one goal. The odds for “both teams to score” only climb to 1.60. The same is true for the over bets.
The over/under bets are in the same vein. Even “Over 3.5 goals” does not make it to the 2.50 mark, but still offers a positive value in view of the starting position.
The odds on the half-time bets are extremely interesting. If you assume that Manchester City will dominate from the start, you can pick up an extremely lucrative 2.10 odds if the Citizens take the lead at the break.
Last but not least, a 3:1 for Manchester City catches the eye in the result bets. The odds for this are 12.5 and offer a profitable value as a risk bet.
City are a force in front of their home crowd!
Of course, Manchester City’s home record is not the least of their advantages this season. In the league, the Skyblues won 16 of the first 18 home games and scored an impressive 59 goals.
They have also won each of their five home matches in the top flight. Real Madrid, on the other hand, have already had one or two away stumbles during the season.
In La Liga, they have already suffered six away defeats. In the Champions League, however, they have won three of their first five away games. However, the 1:1 at Shakhtar Donetsk and the 2:3 at RB Leipzig should definitely be kept in mind when picking tips.
Goals seem guaranteed!
The direct comparison paints a thoroughly balanced picture. After ten completed duels, the statistics show four wins for the Citizens, three draws and three Real victories.
It is interesting to note that all of the meetings have taken place within the last ten years. Since 2019 alone, both teams have played five duels.
In the previous season, City and Real met in the semi-finals of the Champions League. After a 4-3 win for the Skyblues in the first leg, the Spaniards came back to claim a 3-1 win after extra time in the second leg.
Overall, it is noticeable that the two teams have been mostly high-scoring.
In the last five games, the bet “Both teams score” would have led to success in each case. The “Over 2.5 goals” bet would have been successful in four of the most recent five duels.
Manchester City’s home record so far against Real is not the least of its advantages. Thus, the English have not yet conceded a single home defeat against the Madrilenians.
After four home games, they have two wins and two draws to their name.
However, it has always been close at the Etihad Stadium. The two City home victories have both come by a goal difference (2-1, 4-3).
Fittingly: Real have scored at least one goal against Manchester in three of their four away games so far.
My Man City Real Madrid tip:
The home statistics of Manchester City alone make it clear that Real Madrid face a huge challenge.
In this respect, a progress of the Madrilenians would be quite a surprise. However, as Real can be expected to do anything in the top division, I cannot recommend a 1×2 tip without a stomachache.
Accordingly, I have opted for a goal bet, which is promising due to the offensive strength of both teams.
After the draw in the first leg, I see Manchester City ahead overall at the Etihad Stadium, but in my Man City Real Madrid tip I have the bet “Over 2.5 goals” in my sights!
