FA Cup, quarter-finals, Saturday, 18/03/2023
Manchester City FC have already won a lot under coach Pep Guardiola. Only in the Champions League, despite all the top stars, the club is still eagerly awaiting the handle pot.
The team showed what it has in store on Tuesday in the CL eighth-final second leg at home against RB Leipzig. The 7:0 win against coach Marco Rose’s team turned into a real demonstration of power.
The man of the day was, of course, striker Erling Haaland, who scored five times. A big contrast awaits the Skyblues in the FA Cup quarter-finals at home to second division Burnley on Saturday.
The bookmakers, of course, have virtually no doubts about the outcome here. I also play the bet “Win Man City with handicap -1” with my Manchester City vs Burnley tip at odds of 1.57 with provider Bet365.
When the reigning Premier League champions host a second division side at home in the cup, the starting position is naturally abundantly clear. This is no different with the Manchester City Burnley prediction.
The fact that the Clarets are the sovereign league leaders in the Championship does not change much. For a home win, sports bettors get just average odds of 1.19.
On the other hand, a win for the visitors seems very unlikely from the bookies’ point of view, with odds averaging over 15.0. In this FA Cup season, Burnley have already knocked one first division team out of the competition away from home.
However, this was “only” the PL promoted Bournemouth.
Against Leipzig, City’s system was always variable. The key, however, was in the centre. Here Rodrigo, De Bruyne and Gündogan were extremely quick-witted, ball-secure and explosive.
Above all, it is beginning to be noticed that the Skyblues have only conceded their defeats so far this season when either Gündogan or De Bruyne were missing from the starting eleven or they were not called upon as an eight-man tandem.
The focus on Tuesday was, of course, still on Erling Haaland, who was substituted in the 63rd minute after his five goals. The Norwegian has already scored 39 times in the 2022/23 season, 28 times in the Premier League alone.
So, of course, the ex-Dortmund player is of great value to the Citizens. Even when he doesn’t score, he always ties up many opponents, acts as a wall player or pulls his teammates along with his great mentality.
But for the top striker, coach Pep Guardiola has also thrown some long and hard-earned principles overboard. For example, there have been a few games in which too many long and high balls have been played to Haaland.
In the end, Manchester are in the last eight of the Champions League for the sixth time in a row and can continue to hope for three titles this season. Only in the League Cup is City already out.
In the league, however, they have some problems against the strong form and morale of Arsenal. The gap to the Gunners is five points after 27 of 38 matchdays.
The Skyblues have gone 4 competitive games without conceding a goal. In the last five games, the Citizens have scored 17 goals.
Burnley FC had managed to stay in the Premier League against all odds since the 2016/17 season. But last season, the Clarets once again had to make their way down to the second tier of the English league.
In the end, they were one place and three points off the top. Last season, contrary to tradition, those responsible had not held on to long-serving coach Sean Dyche.
Dyche had led BFC to two promotions to the Premier League. His successor Mike Jackson, who had previously been in charge of the U23s, was unable to prevent relegation in the end.
But the club from Lancashire does not want to stay in the second division for long and thus signed a prominent successor in the coaching chair, Vincent Kompany.
And the new coach stands for an entertaining and successful style. Since the win against Norwich on 25 October, the relegated team has topped the second division table.
In 37 games, there have only been two defeats. They have a 13-point cushion over second-placed Sheffield United. Burnley have already scored 74 goals. That is clearly the best value in League 2.
The defence has also conceded only 29 goals. Again, no opponent in the Championship is better. The team is unbeaten in 17 league games. Wednesday’s 3-1 win at Hull City was their 14th win in that period.
For Burnley coach Vincent Kompany, Saturday’s cup tie is of course very special. The Belgian returns to his former club, with whom he won four Premier League titles, two FA Cups and four League Cups, for the first time as coach.
The clash between Manchester City and Burnley has been 107 times. With 53 wins to 30 defeats, the Skyblues have a fairly clear lead in the direct comparison.
The difference is even clearer when visiting the Citizens. Here, the Clarets have only won seven times in 52 matches and have suffered 33 defeats and conceded 133 goals.
In the FA Cup, this pairing has been played five times. BFC won the first encounter in the 1930/31 season. The other four matches all went to Man City.
In the Premier League, Burnley have only won one match against City (March 2015) since their penultimate promotion in the 2009/10 season. On the other hand, there have been 3 draws and 12 defeats.
Summary: Looking at the last 8 Premier League duels between the two clubs, the record clearly favours the Skyblues with 8 wins and 26:1 goals. Surely Burnley now have a completely different team in the second division.
And City coach Guardiola will certainly rotate a bit. In addition, his team will have to adjust to an opponent from the second division again after the festival game in the top division.
But the Citizens will not let themselves be deprived of this lucky draw. In the end, a home win with at least a two-goal lead seems the most likely option.
My tip for the Manchester City – Burnley match is therefore: Victory Man City with handicap -1!