Premier League, Saturday, 30/09/2023
The excitement in the Premier League reaches its peak this coming Saturday when Manchester United meet Crystal Palace once again – just four days after their last encounter together in the EFL Cup!
In my just-published Manchester United Crystal Palace betting tip, I’ll analyse the factors that could influence this showdown, and also provide an insight into the best betting options available.
Manchester United could face some difficulties against Crystal Palace this weekend.
Despite winning the same clash 2-1 in February last season, they have failed to win two consecutive league games against Crystal Palace since March 2018 – a run of five games without a win now.
In doing so, Manchester United previously looked to be outright leading the Eagles with 16 wins from their first 20 Premier League games together (80%).
However, they have now managed just three more wins in their last eight games against the Londoners, which equates to a win percentage over that period of just 37.5%.
These stats suggest that Crystal Palace have performed stronger than ever against Manchester United in recent years.
So the upcoming game could be a real challenge for ManU, and a win is by no means guaranteed – even if they were running like clockwork at Old Trafford just a few days ago.
It cannot go unmentioned that this fixture already took place in the EFL Cup just a few days ago and the Red Devils prevailed relatively clearly at home to Old Trafford – at least that is what the 3-0 result suggests.
A closer analysis, however, points out that with an xG value ratio of 1.40 to 0.43, a close 1:0 or 2:1 Uniteds would probably have been more fair.
The bottom line, however, is that Crystal Palace fans need not be surprised that their favourites once again came away empty-handed in terms of goals.
After all, the Eagles’ offensive production has diminished more than almost any other Premier League club in recent weeks.
Crystal Palace had fired just 13 shots in their last two Premier League games, having managed at least 10 in 13 of their previous 14 league games since Roy Hodgson returned in April.
Their average in those 14 games was 15.6 shots per game, compared to a paltry 6.5 in the last two.
This drastic drop in shot attempts suggests that the Londoners may once again have great difficulty getting goals.
Their attack has seemed to lack penetration in recent games anyway, and they may again fail to put the ball in the net against a strong defence like the Red Devils’.
But there is even more telling data that reinforces my belief that my Oddset sports bet, which calls for a Red Devils win to nil, could be crowned with success.
That’s because Crystal Palace, along with Luton, are one of two teams yet to score a first-half goal this Premier League season, giving up 35 unsuccessful shots in the process.
In total, the Eagles have scored in the first half just 6 times in 28 league games in the 2023 calendar year, with half of those goals coming against West Ham (3-2 at half-time) in April.
That is certainly an extremely worrying development for a club that, unlike promoted Luton Town, was still being considered for a place in the top half of the table by sports bettors at the start of the season.
When it comes to the Manchester United Crystal Palace odds from the bookmakers, they belong beefed up anyway if – like me – you are convinced of a win for the home side.
Because from left to right, the average odds for a classic 1X2 scenario read as follows: 1.55, 4.20, 5.60.
Consequently, I like to trust in another win to nil for the Red Devils, which promises me a significantly higher win factor of around 2.80x compared to the somewhat meagre home win odds.
Conclusion: It seems like Manchester United could come out on top again in this game. One of the crucial reasons for this is Crystal Palace’s weakness in scoring goals in the first half, which often puts them in an awkward position.
If they fall behind early again, they will be rattled again – much as they were in the EFL Cup a few days ago.
With their quality and the home advantage, the chances of a win for the home side seem even better than last Tuesday in the EFL Cup.
My prediction is therefore: Man United win by nil!