Eerste Divisie, Play-offs, Wednesday, 31.05.2023
The Bwin app is also so popular among sports betting fans because it even makes it possible to place great football bets on somewhat less popular leagues such as the Dutch Eerste Divisie.
In this context, I have looked at the NAC Breda Emmen tip in the context of the promotion play-off there. I assume that the first division team will only be able to show its best performance in the second leg.
The Dutch have designed a very sophisticated play-off system for promotion to the Eredivisie, which you first have to see through. Because unlike the transparent Bet3000 bonus, the path to the top Dutch league is not so easy to follow.
In a nutshell: At the end of the regular second division season, the first two clubs – in this case Heracles and Zwolle – are promoted directly, whereas places 3 to 8 engage in an exciting race for the last promotion spot.
The play-offs are spread over a total of three co-phases, each consisting of a first leg and a second leg, and also involve a first division club fighting for their place in the Eredivise.
The first of these three co-phases is already behind us. Almere and VVV will now play one of the two second-round duels against each other, whereas NAC certainly got the hardest draw of all after surviving the 1st round.
Breda finished the regular first division season in sixth place and overcame fifth-placed MVV 5-1 on aggregate in round one. But now, according to the tournament schedule, the much stronger FC Emmen was waiting for them.
The EMM won the Eerste Divisie two years ago and this season 2022/23 were stranded relatively narrowly in the so unpopular Eredivisie relegation place. In any case, the necessary footballing potential to keep up with the class is there.
FC Emmen were actually well on their way to targeting a non-relegation spot in the final weeks of the Eredivise. But the last four matchdays brought zero points and thus sealed the gloomy fate of the promoted team.
The four games in question, however, were all against Dutch heavyweights such as FC Twente (0:3), AZ Alkmaar (1:5), Feyenoord (1:3) and most recently Utrecht (2:3).
So an easy remaining programme certainly looks different. The bottom line is that I conclude that the EMM is not strong enough to take on these opponents, but will still be able to do much more against the sixth-placed team in the Eerste Divise.
While I think FC Emmen will get through this round, a win for the first division side in the first leg is not necessarily an inevitability. Here it might pay off to rather be more cautious at the betting shop.
After all, NAC Breda put in a strong final league spurt in the spring and can show their own supporters a satisfactory record of 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats over the course of their last ten competitive matches.
The EMM should therefore be grateful for a draw at the Rat Verlegh Stadium on Wednesday. Especially as they have a much better opportunity to overpower the second division side in their own stadium ground just a few days later.
When looking at the NAC Breda Emmen odds of the sports betting providers, I have my doubts that they actually accurately reflect the respective entry probabilities in the context of a classic 1X2 scenario.
The average of 2.20 that is traded on the markets for an EMM victory, for example, is a tad too low for me.
In the second leg in front of a home crowd, I would consider such a betting odds rather fair, but away I remain sceptical about the first division team’s overall chances of winning this match.
Bet365 sportsbooks currently excel at offering punters odds of currently 3.10 on both an NAC win and a draw.
You could go with your gut feeling here or directly consider a DC-1X bet at odds of around 1.72 as I did in my NAC Breda Emmen tip to cover both events at the same time.
Another factor that makes me sceptical that the visitors will actually be able to play to their full potential is the current tight situation in the EMM’s team hospital.
While all of Breda’s key players are fit, various players such as Guclu, Hardeveld, Kieftenbeld, Lieder and German midfielder Rui-Jorge Monteiro Mendes will not be able to play on Wednesday for Emmen.
Summary: FC Emmen have never lost five competitive matches in a row this season. But the personnel situation remains tense and the “still first division” team has not had too good an experience in this stadium either.
Breda, on the other hand, have offered their fans really good football since April and it was this strong final spurt that enabled them to get on the play-off train in the first place.
The first division team could still advance at the end of both duels, but in the first leg I prefer the DC-1X odds of many German betting providers such as Bet3000 Sportwetten to the EMM win odds of around 2.30 at the Rat Verlegh Stadio.
My NAC Breda Emmen tip is thus: Double Chance 1X.
