Napoli – AC Milan betting tip
Suspenseful starting position after the Champions League first leg between SSC Napoli and AC Milan. The Rossoneri managed to win the first leg narrowly with 1:0.
In the home victory, the 19-time Italian champions benefited from questionable decisions by the referee. Will the Neapolitans turn around the 0:1 at home in the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona? Or will the northern Italians advance to the semifinals?
In my Napoli AC Milan betting tip, I give you a prediction for the match and a betting recommendation for this Tuesday’s clash.
The card pockets were loose on referee Istvan Kovacs. The sports coach from Romania suspended two SSC Napoli players at once for the second leg.
First, Frank Anguissa saw the yellow-red card after a high leg effort against Theo Hernandez.
Tonight is also missing the most important man in the defense of the southern Italians. Min-jae Kim saw a yellow card after showing frustration at the whistle for a foul.
“You can’t give a yellow card there. It’s nonsense and it’s no fun,” Sandro Wagner was critical live on the DAZN microphone.
The bookmaker forecast
Nevertheless, the first leg was a respectable and close match that Milan managed to win 1-0. The crowd of around 74,000 saw numerous top-class chances, with the teams firing 28 times in total at the box.
In the reunion, our top bookies trust SSC Napoli to turn things around despite the suspended players. Bet365 sees the hosts as favorites with 1.70 odds. For a draw, which would be enough for Milan to advance, there is a 3.60.
Understandably, the least likely scenario is an away win (5.25) for the Rossoneri, for whom a draw would be a de facto victory with advancement.
Analysis: Napoli vs AC Milan
The amount of fire in this duel is also shown by the lineups in the league games last weekend. Both teams rotated diligently in order to have their stars run up with the best possible fitness today.
The opponents benefited from this. AC Milan conceded 0:1 in the first minute against Bologna and could only equalize shortly before the break for the final score of 1:1.
The Neapolitans, who had previously won 24 of their 29 league games, played only 0-0 at home against relegation candidates Hellas Verona.
Nevertheless, the dominant league leaders were able to celebrate one small success, the comeback of Victor Osimhen.
The star striker was substituted in the 73rd minute after his brief adductor injury and is also in the squad for today’s game against Milan.
Quote analysis
Competitively, the Nigerian has scored 25 goals in 29 games and set up five others. On average, the 24-year-old thus collects one scorer point per game and leads the Serie A scoring charts with seven goals to his name.
There is no question that his comeback will play a key role in turning the Champions League around. Bet365 has offered odds of 2.40 for a goal from the man whose market value is 100 million euros.
In addition to the suspended Kim and Anguissa, Giovanni Simeone and Gianluca Gaetano are also missing. AC Milan travels with a more comfortable squad situation.
Only Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who has only played four competitive games this year due to knee surgery and muscular problems, is not in the lineup for today.
SSC Napoli with impressive offense
Given the amount of scoring chances in the first leg and SSC being behind, I expect a lot of finishes in the second leg as well. Napoli has proven just how dangerous their offense is almost consistently this season.
Luciano Spalletti’s team scores an average of 2.7 goals per Champions League match, compared to 2.2 in Serie A.
Even as guests, Napoli created 18 chances against Milan, 20 minutes of which they were outnumbered. I find the odds for over-goals somewhat surprising given this offense, which may now rely on Osimhen’s qualities again.
High goal odds for the second leg
Over 1.5 goals Betano already has 1.35 odds in their repertoire. Over 2.5 goals (2.02) already double the stake in case of success.
The goal average of the Neapolitans also speaks for a bet on over 1.5 Napoli goals. For this, Betano provides 1.87 odds.
Definitely a bet with value that is set so high, as Milan has quite a strong defense to show for it.
In the round of 16, the team from the fashionable city remained in two games without conceding a goal even against the Tottenham offensive lineup Kane, Son and Co.
The 1-0 first leg was the fifth match in a row that Milan have gone without conceding a goal in the top flight, a strong record.
Moreover, the guests do not have to fear the match in Naples. Before their emphatic 4-0 win in early April, Stefano Pioli’s side also won their two previous matches in southern Italy 1-0 and 3-1.
Napoli’s last home win against Milan was five years ago. Three league away wins in a row for Napoli in Milan confirm that home advantage hasn’t played a big role in this duel lately.
Nevertheless, if someone trusts this statistic and speculates that Milan will take advantage of their counter-attacking chances, a bet could be placed on double chance X2: 2.12.
My Napoli AC Milan tip:
The Champions League second leg between SSC Napoli and AC Milan is expected with a lot of excitement. More game shares in a closely contested match had in the first duel, however, the leader of the Serie A.
Even though the last home win before the first leg was nine games ago, I expect that Napoli, with more quality in the squad and a more dangerous offense, will probably win the match.
However, it is not yet clear how many minutes of play star striker Osimhen will get after his injury. In addition, Kim, the best man in the defense, is missing and already in the first duel Milan presented itself dangerous in counterattack situations.
Therefore, I also trust Milan to score one or two goals and decide in my Napoli AC Milan tip not for the victory of the hosts, but for at least one goal per half.
