Newcastle United – Leicester City Tip
The squad of top clubs on the island is as big as ever. Various top teams are fighting for the many titles in England, but in addition to some expected clubs, there is also a rather big surprise waiting for the fans.
This one bears the name Newcastle United. The Magpies hold their own in the top places, almost never lose and, on top of that, have an almost insurmountable defence. A strength that should not only come into its own in the Premier League.
In my Newcastle Leicester tip, I refer to the EFL Cup, a competition that has already reached the quarter-finals. And lo and behold, along with Manchester City, Newcastle are hot contenders for the title here!
While the Toons are doing very well, their upcoming opponents from Leicester are slowly but surely heading back down the table. And so it is no surprise for me that the Foxes are also the clear underdogs at Bwin.
In my analysis, I will now explain in detail why I rule out an end to the home side after regular time and why I don’t believe that the fans will be treated to a great shoot-out!
The bettors’ forecast?
The performances of Newcastle have of course also made a big impression on our betting providers. And so it comes that a win after the regular 90 minutes only brings odds of 1.65.
Leicester City, once again in crisis, obviously cannot keep up. At least not according to the pure values, 5.70 speaks a clear language here. The pure progress also already jumps to an average 3.30.
A draw would mean that we would see at least extra time. It should be noted that only one of the last 17 direct duels did not offer us a winner! So it’s worth considering whether the current odds of 4.00 are so sensible.
Analysis: Newcastle vs Leicester
The bosses of Newcastle United were somewhat ridiculed a few months ago when they said: “Sooner or later we want to play for the title! In January 2023, it already seems clear that they didn’t take it too seriously!
The Magpies are in the thick of the action, currently in third place in the Premier League. Nine points (with one game more) behind first place, which is relatively clear considering all the deserved compliments.
And that despite the fact that no team loses less often. A single defeat, as with league leaders Arsenal, is counted! Nine wins and eight draws, it quickly becomes clear that now and then the courage to take risks is missing.
After winning five in a row before the World Cup, the second half of the season also began very successfully shortly after Christmas, namely with a 3-0 win against the upcoming opponents from Leicester.
Quote analysis
Whoever wants to opt for a classic 1×2 bet should clearly do so per host in my eyes. Newcastle is absolutely stable, defensively strong and confident. With Leicester, on the other hand, none of these characteristics apply.
I would even recommend going one step further. Their stout defence makes all opponents look old, and Leicester don’t have much to offer in attack anyway. A win without conceding a goal brings a profitable 2.65 at Bet3000.
At the same time, these odds can be increased if we try to predict a specific result. In a knockout duel, things are often close, which is why I see a 1:0 at the odds of 7.00 at Bwin far ahead.
Newcastle a bench at home
The attack took a little time out recently, but the defence was excellent again. Both against Leeds and Arsenal they played 0-0, we count only two goals conceded from the last nine league games.
However, no one in the Premier League is any safer defensively, so what can go wrong on Tuesday? Newcastle enjoy home advantage, which could be important. No defeats and only five goals conceded (three against City), almost everything succeeds at home.
The Magpies also played two of their three games at home in the EFL Cup. Against Crystal Palace, a 0-0 led to a penalty shoot-out success, followed by a close 1-0 against Bournemouth.
Can Leicester surprise?
Many fans have never experienced what it feels like to reach a semi-final in the EFL Cup. The last time that was achieved was in the 1975/76 season, when it even went all the way to the (lost) final.
While I have now showered the club with some praise, I can still find a small crack in the successful structure. A few days ago they actually got knocked out in the 1st round of the FA Cup.
In the 1:2 against Sheffield Wednesday not much went together, a performance that definitely has to be improved on Tuesday. The team really just needs to play like they did against Leicester a few days ago.
The Foxes were without a chance then, now also know about their underdog role. As stable as the months of October and November were, they only reflected a short phase for the club.
In the meantime, things are much worse again, eleven defeats after 18 rounds unfortunately speak for the extended fight against relegation. After the 0:3 against Newcastle, there was first the 1:2 against Liverpool, then the 0:1 against Fulham.
Eight of the past nine encounters have featured no goals on either side, so with Newcastle putting up such a strong defence, this could also be a hot tip for Tuesday’s clash.
If there is no “BTS”, Bet365 is offering odds of 1.80. Perhaps it will help Leicester that they are now in a different competition. With Stockport, Newport Country and MK Dons, the previous opponents were anything but demanding.
After all, they won 1-0 against Gillingham in the FA Cup, narrowly, but the performance was much more pleasing than that of the Magpies. Who knows if things could even get a little dramatic on Tuesday.
After all, five times in the last seven eliminations it has always come down to extra time or even a penalty shoot-out. A semi-final has also only happened once since 2000.
My tip:
There are theoretically still some title chances for Newcastle United, the one in the EFL Cup should be particularly high. The Magpies are incredibly solid defensively, don’t lose and are very, very strong at home to boot.
In my analysis, I quickly realised that nothing works at all for Leicester. That’s why I can rule out relatively quickly that the visitors will progress after 90 minutes.
Therefore, I decide on a combination that on the one hand contains the double chance 1X and on the other hand refers to the fact that Newcastle hardly allows anything.
My Necastle Leicester tip is therefore: Double Chance 1X and Under 3.5 goals!
