La Liga, Thursday, 25.05.2023
Five teams are fighting for the only Europa Conference League ticket in La Liga for the coming season.
In addition to Osasuna, Vallecano, Sevilla and Girona still have a chance of knocking Athletic Bilbao off seventh place in the table.
The Basques, on the other hand, are only six points away from the Europa League with three matchdays to go.
However, they need a win against Osasuna to keep their chances of the EL alive in case of a possible defeat of Betis Sevilla and to keep their direct rivals at bay.
Osasuna, on the other hand, lost ground in the fight for Europe at the weekend and must therefore also score points to avoid being pushed further down the table.
That’s why my Osasuna Bilbao prediction is based on a very even match in which both teams won’t give each other anything and I’m betting on few goals with odds of around 1.68 in my analysis.
With Athletic Bilbao and CA Osasuna, two direct competitors for the Conference League place meet, which is why the German bookmakers only slightly favour the seventh-placed team in the table from Bilbao with odds of around 2,40.
The hosts, despite a solid home record with three wins from their last five league games, have slightly higher odds on a possible win at around 2.90.
However, this is also due to the current form of the tenth-placed team in the table. With only one three-pointer from the past five league games, the last few weeks have not been crowned with success.
Especially the offensive has been very harmless in recent weeks. In three of the four defeats, Osasuna remained without a goal of their own and scored more than one goal in only two of the past eight league games.
This is also reflected in the overall balance. With 32 goals, the team from Pamplona has scored only two more than eighteenth-placed Valladolid.
Thus, not many Osasuna goals can be expected in this duel. The two defences will be much more in focus.
With 39 goals conceded, Bilbao and Osasuna have conceded the same number of goals, making them one of the better defensive lines in the league.
But things are not going so well for Bilbao either at the moment. They did beat Celta Vigo 2-1 at the weekend, but it was also their first win in a five-game drought without a treble.
Bilbao’s little dip in form has made the battle for the Conference League even more exciting, as before the four games without a win, Bilbao won five of their past six competitive games.
With the exception of the defeat against Villareal, Enriquo Valverde’s team has been doing particularly well away from home in recent weeks.
With only one defeat from the last six league games, the chances of winning points again are high.
Bilbao also have a score to settle with Osasuna after their Copa del Rey semi-final exit.
The 1-0 first-leg defeat and extra-time draw in the second leg at home meant Bilbao narrowly missed out on a place in the final. Athletic were also clear favourites in the LaLiga first round, but could not manage more than a 0-0 draw.
However, the overall balance is clearly in favour of the visitors. In 83 encounters in the league, Bilbao have won just under half of all duels with 41 victories, while Osasuna have won 19.
At the Pamplona stadium, on the other hand, the balance is a little more even. With 18:12 victories (with eleven points shared), Bilbao also lead in this statistic. The fact that the Basques have won five of their last six away games at El Sadar speaks in favour of the visitors.
As in recent years, the duels this season have often gone toe-to-toe. Apart from a 5-1 win by Bilbao in 2014, neither team has been able to dominate the other in the recent past.
Similar to the last few years, the duels this season have often gone toe-to-toe. Overall, Bilbao won only three of the last ten meetings with more than one goal difference.
That’s why I expect a very close and competitive match in this very important duel for both teams.
Both teams are currently showing mixed performances and have dropped a few points in recent weeks due to some defeats in the league. Osasuna have taken six points from their last five league games, Bilbao only four.
It is difficult to make a clear prediction here, as both teams have one of the better defensive lines, conceding less than 40 goals, and the last duels were also very close.
Summary and Prediction: Bilbao have the slight advantage of having the better offence with 47 goals, while Osasuna are more minimalist with 32 goals.
Osasuna, on the other hand, have a great chance to draw level with Bilbao, at least in terms of points, with a win and thus exert real pressure in the last two games.
In the end, however, I think it could end in another draw like in the first leg, but I’m betting on few goals because I don’t expect much from the hosts in particular.
That’s why my Osasuna Bilbao tip is: Less than 2.5 goals.
