NFL 2023/24: Packers – Lions Prediction, Stats & Odds
Both franchises are about evenly matched and even though I see the visitors having a minimal advantage, there are good reasons to prefer a very specific over/under bet over all other betting options in my Packers Lions tip.
The most important thing up front from a betting perspective: if your heart bled on Sunday that the Packers pulled off the biggest comeback in their franchise history since 2018, you can take precautions next time.
That’s because Betano sportsbooks excel at automatically awarding victory to the team in the lead from a lead of exactly 17 points, no matter what else happens until the end.
The Saints went into the half-time break with a 17-0 lead before GB fought back to make it 18-17 in their favour. Beware, however, not to be too dazzled by this outstanding comeback.
Aaron Jones dropped out at the Packers’ RB position, so there wasn’t much going on up front until Jordan Love finally got going just before the end and made significant aerial gains.
Still, in my eyes, the comeback wouldn’t have been possible if Derek Carr hadn’t suddenly been injured on the opposite side.
The quarterback did not make an impressive play now, but had control over his offence and was able to drive the game in the direction New Orleans wanted before his absence turned everything upside down.
Jared Goff on the Lions I think is a similarly strong quarterback who – if he can stay healthy until the end of the game – could lead his offense through the opponent’s half of the field against Green Bay as well as Carr did before.
For their part, the Lions won the game against the Falcons by a surprisingly low score, with the until recently much-maligned new additions of the 2023 draft being particularly convincing.
Brian Branch scored his first NFL sack in the 20-6 win, Sam LaPorta caught his first touchdown out of the air and Brian Branch impressed with various outstanding plays on defence.
By the way: Sam LaPorta could be an interesting candidate for a single bet against Green Bay in the course of a Bet365 sports bet.
That’s because the tight end last Sunday became the first Lions player at his position since T.J. Hockenson in the 1970 season to record over 75 receiving yards in a game.
It’s tough to pick a winner on Sunday, as evidenced by the current Packers Lions odds, which are very evenly matched at around 1.85 each.
However, with both offensive lines being inconsistent last weekend and the respective defences pulling the chestnuts out of the fire, I’d bet on a game characterised by a lot of defensive plays.
Especially since Rashan Gary at GB is like a “human wrecking ball of opposing offensive plays”. The edge rusher collected three sacks against the Saints – despite being on the field for just 23 snaps.
No wonder New Orleans couldn’t find their game after the break and couldn’t conjure up another point on the board.
The last two duels between the two NFC North rivals, each less than a full year ago, clearly demonstrate why touchdown toss after touchdown toss should not be assumed on Friday.
After all, in both Week 9 and Week 18, Detroit prevailed by relatively narrow margins of 15-9 and 20-16, respectively.
Neither game, therefore, produced more than 36 total points at most.
However, I will place my Packers Lions bet with a verified German bookmaker in such a way that I set my upper limit at 47.5 points, but still get offered very decent odds of 1.69 on average.
Seems the bookmakers are simply underestimating the possibility that few touchdowns could be scored again in this NFC North duel.
Conclusion: Winter temperatures haven’t yet set in in the far north, which could affect the respective passing games, but I still expect a low-scoring game on Friday.
Both offensive lines were inconsistent in Week 3 and both Packers and Lions were more convincing with a successful pass rush and strong defensive plays in the secondary.
However, precisely because the bookmakers are firmly expecting a small TD spectacle, I would rather assume a manageable final result in this battle for the top of the NFC North, which has been assigned much higher odds anyway.
My Packers Lions tip: Under 47.5 points.