Ligue 1, Friday, 24.11.2023
Shortly after the end of the 2024 European Championship qualifiers, a Europe-wide highlight is on the program at club level this weekend. Friday’s clash in Ligue 1 could even be seen as a pointer towards the championship…
According to my PSG AS Monaco betting tip, it is difficult to completely refute the perceived superiority of the Parisians. Nevertheless, I will work out a realistic betting scenario that the German bookmakers seem to underestimate a little
After a turbulent start to the season, in which PSG new coach Luis Enrique initially had to get used to the tight rhythm of club soccer, the defending champions are back on track!
In the past five matchdays, only Paris Saint-Germain have taken full points in Ligue 1. Their upcoming opponents from the principality, on the other hand, have taken five fewer points in this period, i.e. a total of ten points.
The international break came just in time for AS Monaco. After the disappointing draw at Le Havre – where the underdogs were much closer to a 1-0 win – the short break did them some good
PSG went into the international break in much better shape, with Kylian Mbappe returning to the French capital in high spirits.
The exceptional player scored a hat-trick in France’s historic 14-0 win over Gibraltar, who will of course be at Euro 2024.
The only annoying thing is that youngster Zaire-Emery was seriously injured in this international match. But the Parisians’ squad is deep enough to compensate for this loss, just like those of Nuno Mendes, Presnel Kimpembe and Marco Asensio.
The Parisians are a force at home anyway! Not only have they won each of their last five competitive matches at the Parc des Princes, but they have also done so with a clean sheet.
Three clubs – Dortmund (2:0), Marseille (4:0) and AC Milan (3:0) – were clearly defeated in the process and could be classified as equal, if not superior, to AS Monaco in terms of play.
The current absences of Bree Embolo, who was already absent in August, and Eliesse Ben Sehir have not brought Monaco’s attacking play to a complete standstill. However, the principality’s footballers are no longer quite as prolific as they were in the 2022/23 season
Personally, I wonder whether the odds from top sports betting providers for a PSG win against Monaco at around 1.45 are really worth the risk.
In this context, I feel that the odds on offer are a little too low. Especially as, in hindsight, nobody can complain that a win for the visitors from the principality would have come out of nowhere.
PSG have not won any of their last three Ligue 1 games against AS Monaco (1 draw, 2 defeats) and even suffered a well-deserved 3-1 defeat in their last meeting in February of this year
An over-2.5 goals tip, on the other hand, is much more appealing to me, because the Parisians and Monegasques have scored the most Ligue 1 goals this season, regardless of the venue, with an average of 3.2 and 3.3 goals per appearance respectively.
Watch out: Of the last nine PSG games played at the Parc des Princes, this mark has actually been surpassed on eight occasions.
However, the over-2.5-goal odds of 1.38, which can be accessed via various sports betting apps, don’t exactly knock my socks off. In my opinion, the bookmakers seem to be too sure that there will actually be a hail of goals over Paris on Friday.
Since I think Monaco will put in a good performance, but not necessarily score goals in abundance, I’m taking advantage of the Betano sports betting offer to cobble together a combination bet based on two scenarios underestimated by the bookmaker.
Accordingly, I will mark an AS Monaco win with HC +2 as well as an under-4.5-goal bet. Especially since this mark has only been surpassed once in the last six competitive duels
Monaco were maltreated on visits to the French capital between 2017 and 2019.
During this period, they were swept off the pitch by PSG in four different competitions. These were the Coupe de France (5:0), the Coupe de La Ligue (3:0), Ligue 1 (7:1) and the Super Cup (4:0).
But since then, the Monegasques have fared much better in their last outings at the French national team’s favorite stadium…
Conclusion: I would tend to lean towards the Parisians! However, with the odds currently being traded for PSG against AS Monaco, I would opt instead for a scenario that may be underestimated by the providers.
Because although AS Monaco have not had quite as strong a start to the late fall as their upcoming opponents, they are certainly capable of putting in a respectable performance.
In my prediction, I therefore expect the visitors to score less than 4.5 goals and lose by no more than one goal.
In bookmaker’s terms, this means: Tip 2 with HC +2 & Under 4.5 goals.