Copa Sudamericana, Thursday, 28/09/2023
While the UEFA Europa League has only just kicked off its new season, its South American counterpart is already quite a bit further along. In the Copa Sudamericana they have been found, the best four teams!
I am now looking in the direction of Ecuador, where the hosts want to show that Bet365 and Co. are rightly the top favourites to win. In my Quito Defensa y Justicia tip, I will therefore reveal why I am betting on a tactical match with a maximum of two goals!
I’ll start my analysis with the guests from Argentina, who go by the name of Defensa y Justicia. Why? Quite simply because this club is not actually one of the big ones in international competition.
It was only in 2016 that the name appeared in the Copa Sudamericana for the first time, and they promptly celebrated the title in 2020! Since last year’s group stage was a complete surprise, the motivation is now all the greater.
And lo and behold, Defensa made it into the top four again. And this despite a 3-0 defeat to Millonarios at the start of the preliminary round at the beginning of April and a false start that could not be denied.
Obviously a warning shot, because Justicia then followed it up with five wins and 15 goals and, of course, made the knockout round without any problems. The only snag: Only once did they manage to escape without conceding a goal.
In the round of 16 CS Emelec was waiting, with two narrow victories (2:1 and 1:0) they survived this round. Defensa also avoided defeat against Botafogo, a 1-1 away draw was followed by a 2-1 win at home.
The players seem to know exactly how high they have to jump without getting pointlessly carried away. If the team can be accused of anything at all, it is perhaps that the only two games they did not win were away from home.
A year and a half ago there were already two duels against Quito, in the group stage of the Copa they lost 1:2 at home, away there was no winner in the 2:2.
For our bettors, the guests are also active in the role of the underdog next Thursday, Defensa comes to average odds of 4.80 to 1.65. Of course, everyone knows that it is only the first leg.
LDU Quito have achieved similar results in the competition, but: In the last two knockout rounds, the team did not advance after 90 minutes! But let’s take a look at the performances in order.
For the first time since 2011, the club appeared in the semi-finals, when they went all the way to the final. In the current group stage, they got off to a great start with two wins, but then Quito put the handbrake on.
After three draws, they finished with a three-goal win and conceded only two goals. In the round of 16 against Nublense, it had initially been a 1:0, in the home match, after 120 minutes, no decision had been made.
The Ecuadorians only prevailed after a penalty shoot-out, only to make it similarly exciting in the round of the best eight. 2:1 and 5:4 after penalty shootout against Sao Paulo, the nerves of steel are there!
What is true of both teams, Quito and Defensa, though: both collected only three wins despite a 0:1 handicap, so obviously love close results. Also interesting: 2010 was the last time Quito failed in the semi-finals of the Copa, back then even a success in the first leg brought nothing.
It won’t be an easy game for either team, because it’s about nothing less than a strong starting position for the second leg! In the semi-finals of the Copa Sudamericana, Quito and Defensa y Justicia will face each other
The bookies see the home side clearly ahead, but I can’t necessarily confirm that. Defensa showed strong results, Quito on the other hand had to go to penalties twice.
All in all, I expect a match with a lot of fight, in which nobody wants to make the first mistake. Since both teams can defend well, I therefore come to the following tip:
We will see a maximum of two goals!
