Real Sociedad – RB Salzburg betting tip

Two decisions have been made in Group D of the 2023/24 Champions League season: Real Sociedad and Inter Milan are still unbeaten after the first four matchdays and already have the two tickets for the round of 16 in the bag.

Behind them, Red Bull Salzburg, in third place with three points, can hope for a place in the Europa League this winter. Bottom side Benfica are still without any points, but can still catch the Austrian champions.

On the fifth and penultimate matchday of the group stage, the Bulls from the city of Mozart will be guests in San Sebastian. If Lisbon lose their parallel match at home to Inter on Wednesday, RB would only need one point to progress

However, the task is anything but easy. Despite qualifying early for the last 16, the Basques will not be giving anything away and will be looking to win the group against FC Internazionale Milano.

The bookmakers’ odds are clearly on the side of the home side in this pairing. I come to the same conclusion in my Real Sociedad RB Salzburg betting tip.

In the end, I play the bet “Win Real & Over 1.5 goals” at odds of 1.67 with provider Interwetten.

The bookmaker’s forecast

The home advantage and the market value (432 million to 206 million euros) speak in favor of the home side in the Real Sociedad RB Salzburg prediction. The odds for a home win are just 1.51 on average.

From the point of view of the best bookmakers, who of course also provide their customers with the best betting apps, a win for the visitors is rather unlikely with average odds of 6.62.

The bookmakers are calling for average odds of 4.53 for a points-split match.

Analysis: Real Sociedad vs RB Salzburg

Real Sociedad finished the pre-season in 4th place in La Liga, their best finish since the 2012/13 season. It was also the club’s third appearance in the CL group stage this year.

In their first appearance in 2003/04, the Basques finished second and progressed to the next round, but were knocked out by Lyon in the round of 16. 2013/14, on the other hand, was a huge disappointment.

Back then, “La Real” finished bottom of the group with zero points. This time, the “Txuri-Urdin” showed a completely different face. They only dropped points in a 1-1 draw at home to Inter.

The team scored seven goals. Six of them were scored in the first 30 minutes. In the European Cup, they have won six of their last 18 home games (6U, 6N)

In La Liga, coach Imanol Alguacil’s men got off to a somewhat slow start with two draws. However, they now have 25 points after 14 matchdays, which is enough for sixth place.

However, the first CL place is already six points away. The Basques are particularly strong at home. San Sebastian had gone 17 games in a row without defeat in all competitions (10S, 7U).

They then narrowly lost 1-0 to Barcelona in front of their own fans at the beginning of November. However, Real Sociedad won the following two home games, against Benfica (3:1) and Sevilla (2:1).

The team kept a clean sheet in seven of their 19 competitive matches this season. They scored at least one goal in 17 games and only conceded three defeats

Quota analysis

RB Salzburg have the best offense in the Austrian Bundesliga with 32 goals in 15 games. But whether the Bulls can score on Wednesday is more than questionable.

Real Sociedad, together with Inter, BVB and Barca, have the best defense in the current Champions League group stage. The bookmakers are predicting several goals in the Real Sociedad RB Salzburg preview.

The “Over 2.5 goals” bet (1.75) is clearly ahead of the “Under 2.5 goals” bet (2.06). The situation is slightly different in the “Both teams to score” betting market.

Here, the option “No” (1.87) has a slightly lower average value than the alternative “Yes” (1.92).

RB has to accept some setbacks

Although Salzburg had to let go not only successful coach Matthias Jaissle but also sporting director Christoph Freund at the start of the new season, the team got off to a good start under new coach Gerhard Struber.

They won all of their first seven matches. In mid-September, they dropped points for the first time in the domestic league with a 2-2 draw at Sturm Graz. This was followed by two home defeats in a row.

First, the Bulls lost 1-0 to promoted side Blau-Weiß Linz, followed by a 1-0 defeat to LASK. This had not happened to the club since 2014.

In addition, a run of 37 games in the Austrian Bundesliga without defeat had also come to an end. RB has already suffered two defeats this season

Two-way battle for the championship

The Bulls had only conceded one defeat in the entire previous season. Nevertheless, the serial champions of recent years have now retaken the lead in the table.

However, they can only maintain first place in the duel with Sturm Graz thanks to their better goal difference. The eleventh championship title in a row is therefore in great danger. The very young team has also been repeatedly plagued by injuries this season.

Salzburg were 1-0 down at home to Hartberg on Saturday, but came away with a 3-2 victory in the end. This was only their third win in the last ten competitive matches (3U, 4N).

In the top flight, Red Bull started with a 2:0 win at Benfica. However, the following three games were lost. There have only been four wins away from home in 18 CL matches (5U, 9N).

The first leg on “Matchday 2” went 2:0 to the visitors from the Basque Country in Salzburg. The two teams had previously met for the first time in the Europa League round of 16 of the 2017/18 season.

The first leg in San Sebastian ended in a 2-2 draw, with the Bulls then progressing to the next round with a 2-1 home win. The team from Mozartstadt have a record of five wins, three draws and 13 defeats against clubs from Spain

On Spanish soil, there has only been one success in ten attempts (3U, 6N). Real Sociedad have played against Austrian teams five times in their history.

La Real have lost just once, with two wins and two draws. They are still unbeaten at home (1S, 1U)

My tip:

Real Sociedad are playing a great CL group stage this year. In addition, the Basques have been very strong at home for some time now. So Salzburg are unlikely to get anything worthwhile on Wednesday.

The Bulls are still a little too young and inexperienced on the international stage this year. The home side won’t be giving them anything, either, as “La Real” still have the group win at stake in their long-distance duel with Inter.

Furthermore, RB have always found it very difficult when visiting Spain. However, they can secure a place in the Europa League at home against Benfica on the final matchday.

My Real Sociedad RB Salzburg prediction is therefore: Win Real & Over 1.5 goals!