Ligue 1, Saturday, 27/05/2023
On the penultimate matchday of Ligue1, it comes to the top duel between Stade Rennes and AS Monaco, who are both still fighting for the only Europa League place up for grabs.
With 65 points, the Monegasques are only three points ahead of Rennes, who could overtake Monaco with a win due to their better goal difference.
With their current form, there is a lot to be said for another home win for Rennes, who are also favourites with the bookmakers.
For Monaco, on the other hand, the last two games are about defending fourth place in the table, as Lille are also already dangerously close with only two points difference.
Therefore, in my race Monaco prediction, I also assume a very even match and bet on several goals from both teams in my analysis.
Due to the defeat against Olympique Lyon, Monaco missed out on Europa League qualification early on.
The penalty after less than a minute for Lyon meant that the game was not under a good star from the start.
Moreover, it was the fourth of the last five league games without a win. Will Monaco show nerves of steel before the end of the season and lose fourth place?
It’s conceivable, because especially the offensive has not been in form at all in the last weeks.
Although AS still have the second-best attack in the league with 69 goals, they have scored twice in only one of their last five games and even failed to score in three of them.
In the overall picture, however, the small dip in form is by no means worrying. The defeat against OL was only the third in the last nine games.
Nevertheless, the fluctuations in form have online bookmakers favouring the hosts in Rennes Monaco betting with odds of around 2.00.
However, with a value of around 3.50, Monaco are not such clear underdogs for me. After all, contrary to their overall form, their away performance has been rather positive in recent weeks.
Although there were two defeats recently, they were the only ones since matchday 14. With only three defeats in foreign stadiums, Monaco is at least in third place in the away table.
However, Monaco also face Rennes, one of the strongest teams at home in the French league. With only four defeats and a full 14 wins, Rennes is the second-best team behind Lens on home soil.
The last two defeats were followed by three wins at home with at least three goals from Rennes. But in general, the sixth-placed team in the table is also in great shape.
With two emphatic victories, which admittedly were more of a compulsory task against two relegation candidates, Les Rennais have already picked up nine points from the last four games.
Especially the offensive is in top form. In four of the last five league games, Rennes fans were able to enjoy at least four goals from their own team.
One man in particular should keep an eye on Monaco. With 14 goals, Amine Gouiri is Rennes’ best striker.
Although he scored in only three of the last seven league games, Gouriri scored a treble against Ajaccio.
But it is not only offensively that Rennes is extremely stable. In the last two games, coach Bruno Génésio’s team did not concede a goal.
It was already the eleventh “win to nil” this season, which is also reflected in the league statistics. With 38 goals conceded, Rennes have conceded just two more than league leaders PSG.
That’s why the odds on two Monaco goals at Bet365 Betting are also set slightly higher at around 2.50.
However, this tip would have hit the bull’s eye in four of the last six duels. However, the probability of goals from both teams is much higher.
Goals have been scored by both sides in the last 11 matches, which is why the odds at Bwin Sportwetten on this bet are only around 1.51.
Overall, however, Monaco have been victorious much more often. In the 52 league encounters, the Monegasques have won just under half of all games, with 25, while Rennes have won 16.
The hosts have only won one of their last six meetings and their record at home does not look promising either.
With only six wins from their 29 league encounters so far, Rennes have had little success against Monaco at home.
In the first leg, however, the points were shared for the first time in a long time and I’m also going for goals from both teams in the second-round duel.
Summary and Prediction: For Monaco and Rennes are fighting for the Europa League and both need to win to gain an advantage on the other.
From Rennes’ current form, especially offensively, I would tend to go with the bookies as Monaco have not been very dangerous in recent weeks.
Away, on the other hand, there have only been two defeats in the second leg, so Monaco should not be written off completely.
Since the third best away team meets the second best home team in the league here and both teams also have their qualities offensively with over 60 goals, I bet on both teams to score and over 2.5 goals.
