Freiburg – Augsburg Tip
The 6th matchday in the Bundesliga will be concluded by SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg late on Sunday afternoon.
Both teams have their own baggage to carry before this match. After five matchdays, the visitors are once again at the bottom of the table.
The first win of the season last weekend, when they beat Mainz 05 at home, certainly helped. But now it’s off to a fearful opponent.
The SCF has won each of the last five duels with FCA. But in the current Bundesliga, Sportclub have now waited three matchdays for a win.
To make matters worse, they are still missing their midfield pace-setter Nicolas Höfler with a red suspension. Christian Günter, the driving force, is also missing due to injury.
Without the old hands in the squad, my Freiburg Augsburg tip reckons with playful advantages for the home side, but it won’t be anything really compelling that they will bring to the pitch.
The prediction of the betting companies?
Just over 300 kilometres separate the two cities. In recent years, there have even been light years between the Badeners and the Swabians.
Currently, they are separated by just two points in the table. Accordingly, the three-way betting predictions for the Freiburg Augsburg tip are not as clear-cut as they were last year.
And even though FCA have lost nine of their eleven guest appearances in the Black Forest, the odds for a draw or win in Breisgau are around 2.00, as we can see at Bwin and Co.
Analysis: Freiburg vs Augsburg
Taking three points away from home is almost an impossibility for coach Enrico Maaßen’s side, though, if we look at the history.
For almost exactly one year, the Augsburg team has been waiting for a win away from home. Their last win came on 2 October 2022 at Schalke (2:3). They also lost both away games this season.
Admittedly: The Fuggerstädter’s opening programme was challenging with Bayern Munich and Leipzig. Now it’s off to the SCF, who are also strong at home.
Coach Christian Streich’s team is notoriously difficult to break down when playing in front of their own fans. If you want to get a win here, you have to put a lot on the line.
Since the start of the year, they have failed to score in only two of their 12 league home games. Against Bayern and Leipzig.
In this respect, in terms of Freiburg Augsburg tip, we can be sure that the home side will once again be successful offensively.
Possibly, this could be the case early in the game. Because this season, the guests always seem to come out of the dressing room sleepy.
FCA have conceded ten of their 13 goals within the first half. Will this be the case again?
The bookmakers at Bet3000 predict odds of 1.65 for a Freiburg goal in the 1st half. This is also supported by the fact that the home side scored four of their five goals in this phase.
At the same time, we can also expect goals to come from both sides. With Noah Atubolu (55%) and Finn Dahmen (52%), two of the goalkeepers with the weakest defence rate face each other.
Do Freiburg manage to break free?
You have to look back a bit to find a run of three winless games for Freiburg. In recent years, the form curve has only pointed upwards.
The last time they went without three in a row was in pre-season between Matchday 25 and Matchday 27. Four times last between September and December 2020, when they waited nine games for a win.
This season, it’s all down to small details. For example, SCF have hit the crossbar or the post more often (6) than the ball has crossed the line (5).
Under the management of Christian Streich, five goals after five matchdays is the lowest tally since the 2017/18 season, when there were only two goals scored.
FC Augsburg: +1 is trumps!
While the home side are unlucky to finish (23%), the Fuggerstädter have been one of the most accurate teams in the Bundesliga this season.
Once they got in front of the opponent’s goal, they landed seven of their ten attempts in the net (70%). The central man has been Ermedin Demirovic, who has been directly involved in each of the last five FCA goals.
Nevertheless, the Augsburgers have not celebrated any scoring festivals. When they have won, they have always been close victories.
To be precise, each of the last eleven victories of the visitors ended with exactly one goal difference.
Of SC Freiburg’s last five victories over Augsburg, four have ended with a difference of two goals or more.
So maybe there is hope for the Schwarzwald kickers to end their finishing misery after all. If not against their favourite opponent, then against whom?
Because the win rate of 82% that SCF have against FCA in the Bundesliga is the absolute top. Against no other club have they won more often at home.
At the same time, the Fuggerstädter have only suffered more defeats against FC Bayern München (11) than against the Breisgauer (9).
My Freiburg Augsburg tip:
When it’s against one of your favourite clubs, basically nothing can go wrong, right? Currently, the SCF is in a difficult constellation.
The performances have often been better than the standings might suggest. In this respect, the knot must break at some point. Against the Fuggerstädter, they could score goals, especially in the first half.
They have to watch out especially for ex-Breisgau Demirovic, who is in good form. FCA could therefore find answers in the second half.
My Freiburg Augsburg tip is therefore: There will be goals in both halves!