FC Schalke – Dortmund betting tips
After the first half of the season, things looked pretty bleak for Schalke. In the first 17 games, the Knappen only picked up nine points and were seven points behind the save bank at the halfway point of the season.
However, after the first six games of the second half of the season, the Königsblauen can hope again. With two wins and four draws, coach Thomas Reis’ men have already collected ten points.
After the 2:0 victory in Bochum last matchday, the Knappen relinquished the red lantern for the first time since Matchday 10. They also managed two league wins in immediate succession for the first time since November 2019.
Now one of the most important games of the season awaits the Königsblauen. On Saturday evening, they welcome Borussia Dortmund to their home Veltins Arena for the 100th Revierderby in the Bundesliga.
The two arch-rivals are the only teams still unbeaten in the second half of the season. Both teams go into the prestige duel in good form and with great self-confidence.
For the bookmakers, the guests are clearly favoured. I opt for the bet “Under 2.5 goals” with my Schalke Dortmund tip at odds of 2.27 at bookmaker Bet-at-home!
The betting provider’s forecast?
Before Saturday’s derby, Dortmund (2nd) and Schalke (17th) are separated by a whole 15 places in the table. BVB has never been so far ahead of its arch-rival before a direct duel.
Not only when looking at the table, but also in terms of individual quality and direct comparisons from the recent past, the guests have the edge.
Thus, the Schalke Dortmund prediction for a win by the visitors only offers average odds of 1.74. On the other hand, sports bettors get average odds of 4.48 for a three-goal win for the home side.
Analysis: Schalke vs BVB
The start into the second half of the season with four goalless draws in a row was quite decent for Schalke, but did not really advance the team in the fight to stay in the relegation zone.
On the penultimate matchday, the knot burst with a 2:1 home win against VfB. And with the 2:0 in the Ruhrpott duel at VfL Bochum, an agonisingly long away series came to an end for S04.
Königsblau had to wait for a win away from home since November 2019 or 38 BL matches. The basis for the surprisingly good second half of the season is the new defensive stability.
Here, winter addition Moritz Jenz and Maya Yoshida form the centre of the concentrated defending back four. The squad conceded only one goal in the second half of the season.
And against Stuttgart, keeper Fährmann almost put one in his own nest. The team had the weakest defence in the Bundesliga in the first half of the season, conceding 41 goals.
Thus, the club from Gelsenkirchen has already celebrated as many victories in the last two matchdays as in the 21 rounds before. However, S04 still has major problems on the offensive.
It is true that Königsblau scored two goals for the second time in a row. But Schalke can hardly create any danger out of the game. A rehearsed variation had to help against Bochum.
The injured Heekeren, Polter, Ouwejan, van den Berg, Drexler and Skarke will be missing for the Revier derby. It is still unclear whether Kozuki, Balanta and Uronen will make it into the squad.
Quote analysis
In the second half of the season, Schalke have developed a penchant for goalless draws. The Revierderby has also ended in a 0-0 draw eleven times, and no Bundesliga match has ended more often without a goal.
In addition, the two best defences in the second half of the season will meet on Saturday evening. The Königsblauen have also waited 5 derbies and 454 minutes for a goal against Dortmund.
Accordingly, in none of the last 5 derbies on both sides has the ball floundered in the net. On the other hand, BVB have not played 0-0 since November 2019 and 116 matches.
In the Schalke vs Dortmund preview, however, the bookmakers see the value “More than 2.5 goals” clearly in front with an average of 1.68 in the “Over/Under” betting market.
The “Yes” option also enjoys considerably more sympathy among the bookies for the “Both teams score” bet, with average odds of 1.69.
How will Dortmund cope with the CL exit?
Thanks to their great streak of 10 straight league wins, Dortmund went into the Champions League second leg at Chelsea FC with a lot of confidence. After a few minutes, however, Julian Brandt had to be substituted with an injury.
In addition, the visitors had to make do without Karim Adeyemi, who had been in such good form recently. Thus, Borussia lacked the necessary depth in the forward play against defensively stable Londoners.
Sebastien Haller, who has been waiting for a goal since 4 February, also looked tired and unassertive and is therefore currently not a factor in the attacking centre.
As BVB also remained defensively vulnerable against the Blues, Edin Terzic’s team deservedly lost to the Premier League side despite some controversial refereeing decisions.
A new club record beckons with a derby win
Now Dortmund have to prove in the league that they are really up to the title race and that the upswing is sustainable. In recent games, Borussia had often also benefited from momentum and match luck.
The 2-1 win against RB Leipzig last weekend, for example, was quite flattering. Here, the home side had kept the three points with great efficiency and passion.
With eight Bundesliga wins in a row, they have set a club record. Moreover, the team has not started so well in the second half of the season since 2011/12.
Against S04, Julian Brandt will of course be missing, who suffered a torn muscle fibre in the premier league. Morey, Duranville and Moukoko are also out. It is still unclear whether Adeyemi will be enough.
After 139 Revierderbys, BVB are in front with 54 wins to 43 defeats. At Schalke, however, the balance is in favour of the home side with 27 wins to 21 defeats in 69 games.
Dortmund have won each of the last four meetings between the two arch-rivals. Borussia have not even conceded a goal in five encounters against S04.
Kingsblau’s most recent home league win against Schwarz-Gelb dates back to matchday 30 of the 2017/18 season and a 2-0 scoreline, after which the Knappen still managed to win 4-2 at Signal-Iduna-Park on matchday 31 of 2018/19.
In the last twelve derbies, the home team only walked off the field as winners four times.
My Schalke BVB tip:
The stakes are high for both teams in the 100th Bundesliga derby. Schalke need every point in the fight to stay in the relegation zone and could jump to the save shore for the first time since Matchday 8 with a third win in a row.
BVB want to show a reaction to their Champions League exit and not slip up in the championship race with Bayern. However, I find it difficult to predict the result.
Instead, I expect a close game and few goals. Without Brandt and an in-form centre-forward, Dortmund will have problems going forward against Schalker’s good defence, as they did at Chelsea.
And the home side is struggling offensively anyway. My Schalke Dortmund prediction is therefore: Under 2.5 goals!
