Sevilla FC – AS Roma betting tips
In the 2023 Europa League final, Sevilla FC and AS Roma will face off in an extremely interesting duel from a betting point of view.
Both teams actually have a stable defence, but have only been able to convince to a limited extent recently.
In my FC Sevilla AS Roma betting tip, I will show why I believe that Roma coach José Mourinho’s minimalist playing philosophy will be the main factor in this match.
At the same time, however, I will also give good reasons for dispensing with a classic 1×2 bet and concentrating entirely on the goal bets.
This is not least due to the special relationship between Sevilla FC and the Europa League. After all, betting against a final victory for the EL record champions has proven to be gross negligence, at least in the recent past.
Thus, from my point of view, Sevilla FC and the Mourinho eleven are facing each other in a special stalemate situation, which brings up my targeted prediction “Under 2.5 goals” (1.53 @Betano).
Beyond that, however, I will of course point out other betting alternatives for the Europa League final that can be derived from the available statistics.
First of all, however, we look at the general odds of our betting providers. Because it is already clear here that Sevilla FC and AS Roma are likely to meet on an equal footing on Wednesday.
The bookmaker forecast
The FC Sevilla AS Roma odds leave no doubt: Bwin and Co. do not have a clear favourite in their sights.
Rather, Sevilla FC will go into the EL final with minimal advantages at odds of around 2.70 to win. Roma, however, will not be left behind with odds just below 3.00.
The draw odds are particularly striking. Here, the values do not even climb above the 3.10 mark. That’s not something you see too often in international football.
Analysis: FC Sevilla vs AS Roma
Generally, when assessing Sevilla FC, you have to distinguish between their performances in the league and in the Europa League. In fact, the Spaniards are among the bigger disappointments in the Primera División.
They have won just 13 of their first 37 games this season. With 46 goals scored, they are also not exactly one of the most offensively potent teams in the league.
Fittingly: In the last three competitive games, the Andalusians were able to score a total of only two goals. A storming run against AS Roma is accordingly unlikely.
Worth considering: If you assume that Sevilla will go without a goal in the Europa League final during the regular season, you can get odds of 2.80.
However, it should not be forgotten that the Spaniards have recently shown a completely different face in the European Cup. In the quarter-final against Manchester United, they scored a total of five goals.
In the semi-final, they beat a defensively strong Juventus Turin by three goals. The truth is that Sevilla FC are a bit of a surprise package this season, which makes picking a Europa League final not so easy.
Things are a little more stringent at AS Roma, or rather with José Mourinho. With the Portuguese, you know what you get: defence and tactical discipline.
It is therefore no coincidence that Roma, in sixth place in the Italian Serie A, have the fourth-best defence (37 goals conceded in 37 games).
At the same time, they have the weakest offensive value of the top 7 teams (48 goals). Similar to Sevilla, AS Roma should not expect any offensive fireworks in the Europa League final. The title and qualification for the Champions League will have to be fought for defensively.
When Roma score, however, Paulo Dybala is not far away. The Argentine has scored four goals in the EL this season. If Dybala also scores against Sevilla, odds of around 3.50 are possible.
It is important to note here: In contrast to the Spaniards, Roma remained true to their style of play in the Europa League semi-finals. Against Bayer Leverkusen, a single goal in 180 minutes was enough to reach the final.
Typical for Mourinho and a hint for my “under 2.5 goals” tip: In the BayArena, AS had one shot on goal, 28% possession and only 61% passing accuracy. In the end, however, the Bundesliga team could not go beyond a 0-0 draw and had to leave the tournament.
In sum, it is only logical that the major betting companies expect a comparatively low-scoring encounter. The odds for the classic “both teams score” are representative of this assessment.
A “No” is given a far below-average value of around 1.70. A “Yes”, on the other hand, is given odds above the meaningful 2.00 threshold.
If you combine the latter with my “under 2.5 goals” bet, you inevitably arrive at the result tip of 1:1. And indeed, this draw is the favoured result of top bookmakers like Bet3000.
The odds are around 6.00. The half-time bets, however, are quite curious. If you basically expect an even match, you can bet on a draw at the break at odds of about 1.90.
Here, too, the value is at an unusually low level. In view of the starting position, however, the odds are still justifiable. On the other hand, a half-time lead for Sevilla (3.50) or Roma (3.70) is already a risky bet.
EL record winners against ECL winners!
Of course, looking at recent European Cup history also makes sense for my FC Sevilla AS Roma prediction.
For example, the Spaniards have reached the Europa League final for the fifth time since the 2013/2014 season. The Andalusians have never lost.
However, Sevilla will face a reigning European Cup winner in Rome. After all, AS won the Europa Conference League last year. Against Feyenoord Rotterdam, the Italians – how could it be otherwise – narrowly won 1:0.
In terms of European Cup experience, Sevilla and Roma are thus on a similar level.
Few goals in direct comparison!
The direct comparison between Sevilla FC and AS Roma is very clear. Up to this point, the two teams have only met four times.
However, the statistics are not completely useless. After all, three of the duels have taken place within the last five years.
In 2017 and 2021, they played two test matches. After a narrow 2:1 for Sevilla, Roma managed to keep the second duel completely open (0:0).
The only mandatory encounter to date dates back to the 2019/20 season. They met in the Europa League in the round of 16.
Due to the Covid regulations in force at the time, only one match was played, which Sevilla won 2-0.
In summary, this means: AS Roma have not won against Sevilla FC since 2017 and have only scored one goal. In total, only five goals have been scored in the three duels.
The Andalusians’ record against Italian teams is not actually outstanding, however.
The statistics currently show nine wins, five draws and five defeats.
Roma’s experience with Spanish teams has not been exclusively positive either. They have won 15 matches and drawn ten, but have lost 27. The truth is, however, that nine defeats have come against Real Madrid alone.
My Sevilla Roma tip:
Who will win the Europa League final? As the statistics have shown, this question is hard to answer with a reliable Sevilla Roma prediction.
The Europa League affinity and the direct comparison definitely speak in favour of the Spaniards. Mourinho’s team has the defensive clarity on its side.
Regardless of the actual result, however, it is likely that both teams will engage in a tactical battle in which avoiding mistakes is at the top of the agenda.
A high-scoring final would be a major surprise. My FC Sevilla AS Roma tip is therefore: There will be less than 2.5 goals in total!