Stuttgart – HSV Tip
Every year Hamburger SV has to go into the relegation. This time, however, not because the Hamburg team failed, but because Heidenheim shot themselves into the Bundesliga at the last second in the person of Tim Kleindienst.
VfB Stuttgart, an opponent who had the best chance of staying in the relegation places before the last matchday, will now face Hamburg in the first leg on Thursday.
However, a draw against Hoffenheim was not enough with a simultaneous sensational win for Bochum, meaning that VfB Stuttgart will also have to go the extra mile in the BL relegation.
The bookmakers still have the Swabians as the clear favourites.
However, in my Stuttgart HSV forecast I do not believe in a clear victory for Stuttgart.
Why I rather bet on an even exchange with goals on both sides, you can read in my analysis of the relegation play-off between the VfB and the Rothosen.
The betting companies’ forecast?
However, the bookmakers do not see the first leg as close and clearly favour VfB Stuttgart with odds of slightly over 1.60.
The opponents from Hamburg, on the other hand, have odds three times as high and are the clear underdogs with an average of 5,00.
A draw (betting odds of approx. 4.30) would not really help either team and, because the away goals rule no longer applies, would not have any advantages for the visitors, even if it were one with goals.
Analysis: Stuttgart vs. Hamburg
Now then. Before the 34th matchday of the Bundesliga, it seemed as if Stuttgart would just be able to save themselves.
VfB also dominated the game against Hoffenheim, but missed crucial chances, so Bochum’s success against Bayer Leverkusen means they now have two extra games on the schedule.
The home form in recent weeks has been quite mixed, although VfB’s performances in front of the home crowd have been quite solid with only two defeats from the past six games.
However, Stuttgart have only managed one win in those six games and have not managed to get more than a draw on three occasions.
Against Hamburg, a lot also depends on top scorer Serhou Guirassy. The striker missed a great chance against Hoffenheim, but before that he scored in four of the last five league games.
Stuttgart will also need the Ghanaian’s flair for goals, as HSV is one of the most offensively potent teams in the Bundesliga and VfB have only conceded twice this season (interestingly, both times against 1. FC Köln).
Therefore, the bookmakers are expecting a very even match, at least in terms of goal betting.
For the bookies also trust HSV to score a goal and believe in goals on both sides with odds of around 1.60.
Although I don’t think any team will take much risk in the first leg, the odds for more than two goals are surprisingly low at around 1,60.
In such special games, however, a double chance tip on the underdog cannot be ruled out.
Since Stuttgart have been playing a draw quite often lately and Hamburg are highly motivated despite the situation, a bet on a draw or win with Hamburg at odds of around 2.20 would also be conceivable.
Can Hamburg get their act together again?
However, it will be a special challenge for HSV to motivate themselves again.
The victory at Sandhausen, including the fans’ storming of the pitch, meant that the club finally thought it had reached its dream destination after five years of absence from the first division. However, Heidenheim’s Kleindienst scored in injury time to give the FCH a 3-2 victory in Regensburg and direct promotion to the Bundesliga.
After a few minutes of jubilation, it was clear that the team would have to play two more knockout games. For the fourth time and for the second time in a row, Hamburg has to go into the relegation.
At the same time, HSV can hardly reproach itself, at least in the last few weeks. With three wins in a row and only one defeat from the past six league games, Tim Walter’s team has been in very good form lately.
Does HSV also perform in Stuttgart?
Away, on the other hand, the second half of the season was rarely marked by success. Only two wins from the last eight league games, but also only three defeats and just as many draws do not exactly speak for a consistent form of the Walter eleven.
Nevertheless, with 30 points and a total of only five defeats, Hamburg has been the best away team in the second division season.
And not only that. Their offence has also been the strongest this season with 70 goals and with Glatzel, who was the second-best top scorer in the league with 19 goals this season, something should also be possible against Stuttgart.
Overall, however, the record in the relegation speaks against the second division teams. Since 2009, only three times has the club from the 2nd division prevailed.
The record of the Red Shirts against Stuttgart, on the other hand, looks quite different. In the Bundesliga, Hamburg won 44 of the 104 duels.
Stuttgart, on the other hand, lost out more often with 38 victories. In recent years, however, these duels have been very close and even.
In the past eight encounters, goals have always been scored on both sides and in only one of the eight games have there been less than two goals to celebrate.
My Stuttgart HSV Tip:
I expect a high-scoring but very close match in this duel as well. Stuttgart are slightly better in terms of quality, but Hamburg have the psychological advantage that the pressure is more on the Swabians.
Even though HSV narrowly missed out on promotion, I expect a courageous and, above all, offensively strong Hamburg to make life difficult for Stuttgart.
However, contrary to their current form, VfB have left little to chance in recent home games, with only two defeats from their last six league games.
But since Hamburg is also the best away team of the last second division season, I’m not betting on a winner.
My Stuttgart HSV prediction: Both teams score & more than 2.5 goals!