Stuttgart – Wolfsburg betting tip
It’s not easy to make a Stuttgart Wolfsburg tip on the 25th Bundesliga matchday that promises good chances of success.
At the very least, you can’t rely on your first impressions, but must meticulously sift through the available data material so as not to be led astray when making your personal predictions.
Some of the facts that I will deal with in my Stuttgart Gladbach forecast reveal ambivalent findings that need to be analysed carefully.
For example, there is the fact that since becoming champions in 2009, VfL have celebrated more victories against their upcoming opponents than against any other Bundesliga club in that period (14).
However, caution is advised here, as this data does not reveal that the Wolves have nevertheless only won one of their last five points matches against the Swabians.
Only in the case of a tip regarding a two-sided goal feast is there no ambivalent data available. After all, the first-round duel already provided plenty of entertainment…
The betting companies’ forecast?
Finally, I wanted to know whether the sports betting providers would assign the Wolves the role of favourites – but I was wrong!
Because in fact it is the Swabians who should be closer to the treble with odds of around 2.40. However, the VfL win odds were estimated at insignificantly higher values of around 2.90, so there can certainly be no talk of a “pronounced favourite role”.
Analysis: VfB Stuttgart vs Wolfsburg
Bruno Labbadia was the coach of VfL Wolfsburg from February 2018 to summer 2019. He saved the Lower Saxons from relegation in 2017/18 and led them to 6th place in 2018/19 and thus into the Europa League.
But any sentimentality will have to be put aside by the weekend at the latest, because the current VfB coach must continue to hunt for points for his new employer.
So far, he has at least proved a good hand during the current games, as three of Stuttgart’s last four Bundesliga goals were scored by substitutes.
Personally, I haven’t given up faith in the Swabians. Since Labbadia joined VfB, the fixture list has featured some tough opponents – and yet the majority of the team’s performances have convinced me!
Wolfsburg, meanwhile, must decide whether they are still capable of jumping on the bandwagon that grants some lucky clubs entry into European club competitions.
The Wölfe’s results have been quite respectable – even the two draws against Frankfurt (2:2) and Union Berlin (1:1).
Against VfB, however, I expect a usual turbulent match with many twists and turns – not least because this pairing almost never produces a clear winner.
The Wolves have already lost 4 times at VfB after leading 1:0 – nowhere else has this happened so often.
A goal bet as part of a Bet3000 sports bet remains the only viable betting option in my eyes also because the rest of the Stuttgart Wolfsburg betting odds offer far less.
Although I sympathise with a point win or even victory for the Swabians, the role of favourites assigned to them and the associated low odds take all the wind out of the sails of such a bet.
Taking the odds into account, I would tend to go for a double chance X2 bet on the outcome of the match, as you can currently expect odds of around 1.60 on this.
VfB are not without a chance …
Many experts don’t have much confidence in Stuttgart on Saturday, after all, the Swabians have scored just 0.67 points per game under their new coach since his return to Germany.
During Labbadia’s first tenure at VfB, the average was a whopping 1.42 points per match (2010 to 2013).
But I have already explained that the fixture list has been a tough one lately, which has certainly created a somewhat distorted picture regarding the team’s actual performance.
Moreover, VfL has been slimming down after the winter break. Around the 2022 World Cup, the Lower Saxons were still winning six point games in a row, but in the second half of the season they have only managed one more treble since then (3 draws, 3 defeats).
Goals on both sides!
There are two main reasons for this argument, which are worth taking a closer look at: Both VfB’s performances in the Bundesliga so far and the scoring prowess of Wolfsburg’s strikers.
In 17 of the 24 VfB matches so far in this 2022/2023 season, both sides have been able to score at least one goal in the course of the match – that is, Stuttgart and the respective opponent. This is also the highest number in the Bundesliga.
On the other hand, the Wolves are almost notorious for their accuracy. Niko Kovac has managed to turn his team’s offensive game around and give it much more scoring danger.
Indeed, the VfL has the third best chance-goal conversion rate in the Bundesliga (20%). In fact, they have scored 9.5 more goals since Matchday 1 than would have been expected according to the xG value.
A small bonus reason for a high-scoring affair can also be the thrilling first-round duel, which VfL won by a hair’s breadth with 3:2.
Incidentally, six goals were scored in the last coaching duel between Bruno Labbadia and Niko Kovac. In March 2019, the Wolves, who were still led by the German-Italian at the time, lost 6-0 to the record champions.
My Stuttgart Wolfsburg tip:
I can well imagine that the team that takes the lead first here will still not win in the end. Because this match promises to be full of twists and turns, as has often been the case in the past.
Labbadia’s situation is by no means as desolate as Pellegrino’s at TSG. Both new coaches are stuck deep in the relegation zone, but the Swabians have shown the better performances of late.
Due to the current Stuttgart Wolfsburg odds, however, I ultimately plead for a goal on both sides, as the probability of this must be classified as quite high.
My tip: Both teams score