SV Werder Bremen – RB Leipzig betting tips
As a promoted team, SV Werder have truly played a decent season so far. A lot has improved on the Weser compared to the less successful previous years. But one thing has remained the same.
Bremen simply can’t get anything against FC Bayern. That was the case again on Tuesday. The clear 1:6 defeat in the Allianz Arena was the 26th league match in a row that the northern Germans were unable to win against the record champions.
With this, the FCB set a record in the Bundesliga. And Werder have conceded an average of 3.5 goals at the Allianz Arena since 2009. Just four days later, however, coach Ole Werner’s men have the chance to make amends.
However, on Saturday at home to Weserstadion in the last game before the break for the 2022 World Cup, another fearful opponent awaits, one that has been in absolute top form for weeks.
RB Leipzig are in joint first place with Bayern in a table that has stood since coach Marco Rose took charge, with 20 points from nine games. The bookmakers also see the Bullen as the fairly clear favourites.
I opt for the bet “Over 2.5 goals” at odds of 1.57 (@ Bet365) for my Werder Bremen RB Leipzig tip in the end.
The bettors’ forecast?
On Saturday, a promoted team receives a Champions League eighth-finalist. This constellation alone results in a clear starting position in terms of odds.
The bookmakers have a high average win rate of 3.81 for the home side. Unsurprisingly, the visitors are clearly ahead in the bookmakers’ favour in the Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig forecast.
On average, there are odds of just 1.87 for a three-pointer for the visitors.
Analysis: Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig
SV Werder is one of the positive surprises. Before the 14th matchday, the promoted team already had 21 points on their account. This meant that they were only one point behind the first European Cup place and had a ten-point cushion on the relegation place 16.
The team had remained true to itself and tried to continue the football from the promotion season in the Bundesliga. Bremen also chose a bold and aggressive approach against Bayern.
Coach Ole Werner’s men wanted to play along. However, they had to do without top scorer Füllkrug. This meant that the strikers were lacking a station that could hold on to long passes.
Due to the fact that the SVW pressed high, the guests were also very open at times. The patient Munich team took advantage of this. In addition, the man-to-man defence of the Green-Whites was far too lax.
Groß was also totally overtaxed as the only six. At some point, the resistance of the North Germans was broken and the promoted team did not enter the duels at all.
The result was another clear and bitter defeat in the Allianz Arena. After the game, the players had to admit that perhaps they should have stood a little deeper.
Striker Füllkrug is expected to be available again for the home match against Leipzig. However, the deployment of head defender Milos Veljkovic is questionable. In addition, the injured Agu and Mbom are missing.
Stark is available to replace Veljkovic. Schmid could return to the starting eleven. With three wins from the last four games at the Weser Stadium, Werder have climbed up to 11th place in the home table.
Quote analysis
In the 11 duels between Bremen and Leipzig, 35 goals have been scored so far. That is an average of over three goals per game. And the goal ratios of both teams this season also fit in well here.
SVW is at 24:25 and RB at 28:20, so from the bookmakers’ point of view, the chances for an entertaining match in the Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig forecast are good.
For the bet “Over 2.5 goals” there are best odds of 1.57. And for the tip “Both teams score” the odds don’t go beyond 1.55 either. Nkunku could be an option among the goal scorers. The Frenchman has scored eleven goals in his last eleven competitive matches.
The CL places are getting closer
Before Marco Rose took up his post in Leipzig, RB stood 11th in the table with just one win and five points. The gap to the first Champions League place was six points.
Wednesday’s 3:1 win against SC Freiburg was already the eighth home victory under Marco Rose. In addition, the Bullen are unbeaten in twelve competitive matches.
The Saxons are now within one point of the top three. Up until half-time, the Breisgau side had managed to hold on to a somewhat flattering 0:0 in the Red Bull Arena.
After the second half, the quality of the home side asserted itself with a double strike. The man of the match was once again the Frenchman Christopher Nkunku.
Away there is still room for improvement
The striker scored to make it 2-0, initiated the lead and took the penalty kick for the final score. Under Coach Rose, the Cup winners have become a top team again.
Moreover, RB is the best home team in the league with six wins, one draw and 19:5 goals. However, things are not yet going so well away from home. Only one win has been recorded so far, the 3:1 at Hoffenheim last matchday.
In addition, there have been three draws and three defeats. On their opponents’ pitch, the goal difference is also only 9:15. However, the last defeat came in mid-September with a 3-0 loss in Gladbach.
Bremen will be without the injured Gulacsi, Laimer and Werner. Whether Gvardiol and Diallo can play is still questionable. Forsberg could replace Dani Olmo in the starting eleven.
Leipzig is not one of Werder’s favourite opponents either. In 11 duels, Bremen could only celebrate two victories. Both victories came at home in the Weser Stadium.
The first treble was a 3-0 win in March 2017, followed by a 2-1 home success in May 2019. Despite this, SVW’s home record against the Bulls is still negative with two wins, a draw and three defeats.
The situation in Leipzig is very bad. The North Germans have lost five of their five matches here.
The Green-Whites have not managed to pick up a point against the Saxons in four matches.
The goal difference in this period is 12:1, clearly in Red Bull’s favour.
My Bremen Leipzig tip:
If you look at the quality, the direct comparison and the form curve, everything actually speaks for the guests. The home side, however, can hope for a bit.
Because Leipzig has its difficulties away from home. Maybe there is something in it for Werder after all. In the end, I’ll play it safe: there are always plenty of goals between the two teams.
That should be no different on Saturday. My Werder Bremen RB Leipzig tip is therefore: Over 2.5 goals!
