Wolfsburg – Hertha Tip
The last matchday of the Bundesliga will not only decide the championship battle, but also the race for the international places.
With only one point difference to the Conference League place, Wolfsburg still has all chances to pass Leverkusen.
With Hertha BSC, the Wolves also have a feasible opponent ahead of them.
The Berliners have already been relegated last week due to the draw against Bochum and are therefore the clear underdogs in this match.
Due to the starting position, my Wolfsburg Hertha prediction also assumes an unchallenged victory for the Wolves.
Why I bet on a Wolves victory with a two-goal difference, you can read in my analysis
The prediction of the betting providers?
Because Hertha have already been relegated, the bookmakers no longer expect the Berliners to improve their performance and are offering a high value of around 8.00 for a win.
Wolfsburg, on the other hand, who are still fighting for Europe, are the heavy favourites on the betting market with odds of around 1.36 for victory.
A point would not be enough for the Wolves due to their almost identical goal difference with their rivals and is priced at odds of around 5.25, similar to a Hertha win.
Analysis: Wolfsburg vs Hertha
A 2-0 defeat to Freiburg to open the penultimate matchday means the Wölfe are now in a long-distance battle with Leverkusen for the European places on the final matchday.
It was the second defeat from the last six games, but it was particularly painful because the Werkself also fluffed against Gladbach.
In general, Wolfsburg’s performance has been somewhat mixed in recent weeks, especially against the Top 6 clubs, the Wolves always lost out.
Hopeful for a win against Hertha is the VFL’s home form.
Unbeaten for six games, Wolfsburg even managed two wins in front of their home crowd.
However, Kovac’s side did not manage more than a draw in four of their previous games, which somewhat diminishes their overall record.
It could be a little easier against Hertha, though, as Berlin have the worst defence in the league, so expect a few goals in this match.
The bookmakers are also betting on this, offering odds of under 1.50 for more than two goals.
However, the betting market tends to assume a high-scoring game in the second half.
This is because the odds for at least two goals in the second half are not very high at around 1.58.
Despite their last place in the table, Hertha have at least not had the worst attack in the league this season and have also scored in four of their last five games.
Therefore, the odds for both teams to score are also slightly lower at around 1.70 than the opposite at around 2.05.
Which face will Hertha show on the last matchday?
The tip would also have worked in four of the last five league games with Hertha participation, because this season the defence was simply too weak with 68 goals conceded.
But also in general, Hertha rarely showed first league performances this season. With a total of only six victories, relegation was ultimately deserved.
In the last seven games, the Berliners also scored only four points. Especially away from home, Hertha dropped a few points and won only one match in the whole season.
Will the Berliners be a stumbling block?
And again, mention must be made of the defence, which has conceded at least two goals in eight of the past nine away games.
It is therefore hardly surprising that the value for at least two goals from Wolfsburg is set very low at around 1.33, whereas one more goal already brings odds of around 2.00.
It is possible that Hertha can now play without pressure and become a stumbling block for Wolfsburg in the fight for Europe on the last matchday, it would not be the first time that a relegated team is underestimated
Wolfsburg have not yet been able to really pull away in the overall standings. In the 47 duels, both teams have won 17 matches.
In recent years, however, Wolfsburg have often had the edge, as Hertha have only managed one win in their last eight encounters.
The Wolves also hold a slim 10:8 lead in their own home ground, but Berlin have made up ground in the statistics in recent games.
With only one defeat from the last six away appearances in the Volksarena, Berlin have not been a welcome guest for Wolfsburg in the recent past.
Nevertheless, the first leg this season also showed with an emphatic 5-0 victory that Hertha should not be a hurdle for the seventh-placed team in the table.
My Wolfsburg Hertha tip:
Because Wolfsburg have to win and will do everything to dominate Hertha from the start together with their own fans in the sold-out stadium.
They have often shown that Berlin were no competition this season and with only six wins and almost 70 goals conceded, it should be no problem for the Wolves, who were already clearly dominant in the first leg, to collect the much-needed three points on the final matchday.
My Wolfsburg Hertha prediction: Win Wolfsburg + Handicap -1.