VfL Wolfsburg – Union Berlin Tip
Still top-ranked, but slowly but surely rather in a downward trend! Union Berlin do not want to be pushed down in our 1. Bundesliga tips, a place in the international competition should definitely be it.
The Eisernen have to leave for Wolfsburg on Sunday, just a few days after their Europa League effort. VfL still have their own goals to achieve, because here, too, the target is, of course, European business.
Now you could say: a favourite opponent of the Unioners, after all they have won three of the last four duels? I’ll explain in more detail later why you should by no means make generalisations here.
Here, the home side is in the lead with average odds of 2.30 to 3.30. And this despite the fact that things have not always gone flawlessly in recent weeks either.
There is a lot to talk about in my Wolfsburg Union Berlin tip, on both sides. In my analysis, I will now reveal why I tend to rule out an away win and, on top of that, recommend betting on few goals!
The bettors’ forecast?
After three home games without a win, Wolfsburg are still favourites with our betting providers. Logically, after all, Union Berlin is a favourite opponent at home. The odds therefore reach an average of 2.30.
In recent weeks, it seemed as if the Eisern were running out of steam. Since they were also on the road in Europe, the only role left is that of the underdog, garnished with betting odds of 3.30.
The Berliners have only shared the points once away from home, whether that makes a draw on Sunday unlikely? At 3.25, the odds are relatively low, so many can imagine a draw.
Analysis: Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin
Place three, five points behind Dortmund and Bayern? If Union Berlin had been told that after 23 matchdays they would have this interim record, everyone would probably have taken it in their stride.
The Eisernen have established themselves among the best in Germany and are now nevertheless trembling a little about qualifying for the Champions League. Just a month ago, Urs Fischer’s players were celebrating a 2:1 win in Leipzig.
A few days later, the fans rubbed their eyes in amazement as the team could not manage more than a goalless draw at home against Schalke 04. The official trip to FC Bayern brought a sobering 0:3.
It was a very one-sided top match in which the Berliners were not at all convincing. Later, when the home match against Cologne was on the agenda, there was again no cheering at the 0:0.
Three times in a row without a goal – that has never happened before this season. Now the next negative record is looming: in 2022/23 there was a maximum of three games in a row without a win, and there could be number four.
In fact, regarding the 1×2 bets, I would take the risk and go for three points from the hosts. The home statistics against Union are impeccable, so I think the odds of 2.30 are very wisely invested.
In attack, Berlin have not been convincing at all in the last three games, and Wolfsburg are also taking things more leisurely here. Since the defensive zero always stands against Union in the VW Arena, I see good chances for a “Under 2.5 goals” at odds of 1.62.
Equally, of course, I also notice the “Both teams score”, which I tend to rule out for this encounter. The reasons are obvious. The odds at Bet3000 with 1.80 show that the bookies are also sceptical about both sides scoring.
How deflated are the visitors?
Can the capitals be blamed for a weakness away from home or not? One thing is certain: At the Alte Försterei, only two league games have been lost since September 2020 (against Bayern and BVB), and that doesn’t work away from home.
After the trio of defeats with eleven goals conceded before the winter break, Union has caught itself, winning 2-1 in Bremen, 2-0 at Hertha and 2-1 in Leipzig. This series was ended by the aforementioned 0:3 in Munich.
Will the Europa League influence how Berlin performs in the Bundesliga? In any case, after the two games of the intermediate round, there was just NO success at national level.
Wolfsburg guaranteed victory against Union?
Against the Royale Union from Belgium the Eisernen came to a spectacular 3:3 on Thursday, so here it worked out in front of the opponent’s box. Will Wolfsburg be an opponent who can do the same against them?
I already hinted at it at the beginning of my analysis: The VfL is both a fear and a favourite opponent. Three of the last four matches were won, but the home advantage helped in each case.
Trips to the Autostadt, on the other hand, have never been crowned with success. 0:1, 0:3, 0:1 and 0:4 (albeit 31 years ago), not only have they always lost, but they are still waiting for their first goal!
It’s a good omen that resonates from the hosts’ point of view here. The Wolves are eighth, having been overtaken by Mainz. Five points behind sixth place, that should still be doable.
After a fantastic series of six victories with 22:1 goals, including a 6:0 win against Freiburg, Niko Kovac’s team slipped into a crisis once again. 1:2 against Bremen, 2:4 against the FCB, 0:0 against Schalke and 0:3 against Leipzig, all of a sudden the teeth were pulled out.
The rebellion was only successful for a short time, when it was enough for a 2:0 win in Cologne. The question now is: will the recent 2:2 against Frankfurt be considered a success or not? Actually, the Greens were considered to be quite strong at home.
Until the beginning of February, the only defeat was against Cologne, now the defeats against Bayern and RB have been added. Of course with the note: these are two of the best teams in Germany.
Only three times in a row to zero, now nine goals conceded from the past three home games? The defence can’t quite decide which line to follow yet, apparently.
My Wolfsburg Union tip:
Union Berlin are facing crucial weeks this season. The Eisernen must not let themselves be diverted from their successful path, otherwise qualification for the Champions League will remain a dream. So there must not be a fourth game in a row without a win.
After the Europa League, the forces must be bundled, if only Wolfsburg were not a fearful opponent away from home. The betting public knows that the Wolves have won all their games against Berlin at home without conceding a goal.
That, combined with the visitors’ minor crisis, makes me opt for a more cautious, defensive bet and recommend the following tip:
Wolfsburg score under 3.5 goals!