2. Bundesliga promotion prediction: Who will be promoted in 2025
The promotion race in the 2024/25 season will be closer and more exciting than ever right up to the last matchday. After the first half of the season, there are only eleven points between first and 13th place!
More than a dozen (!) of all second-division teams are in the Bundesliga promotion forecast, any of which could end up in the top three!
Here we give a compact overview of the Bundesliga promotion candidates 2025 – who has the best chances of promotion to the Bundesliga.
Bundesliga promotion prediction for Cologne and Darmstadt
Normally, the relegated teams are always among the candidates for the promotion places. In the Bundesliga promotion forecast 2025, however, it is not at all certain whether FC Köln and Darmstadt can and will compete for the promotion places.
On the one hand, because the squads have changed since going down to the second tier and, on the other, because the recent past also shows that relegated teams have managed to return to the Bundesliga straight away.
In 2022, both relegated teams, Schalke and Bremen, immediately rectified their 2021 relegation, but in the seasons before that, many clubs failed to return directly to the Bundesliga.
FC Nürnberg and Hannover 96 were relegated to Bundesliga 2 in 2019, while SC Paderborn and Fortuna Düsseldorf joined them in 2020. This quartet is now still in the Bundesliga 2.
The two teams that were relegated to the second division in the previous season also had nothing to do with the promotion race – Hertha BSC and Schalke 04 also came to stay.
Despite these rather bad omens, the Effzeh and the Lilies are aiming for a return to the Bundesliga.
1. FC Köln is at least one of the top favorites if you take the squad value as the basis for the Bundesliga promotion forecast.
According to the market value table, Cologne have the most expensive squad of all second division clubs and are at least in first place in this ranking. Whether this is also reflected on the pitch – that is the exciting question. With a new coach (Gerhard Struber), the cathedral city team at least has a new approach to the game.
This should work. After the 17 games of the first half of the season, Cologne are in first place and thus fully on course for promotion!
Bundesliga promotion prediction for Fortuna Düsseldorf
Fortuna Düsseldorf almost didn’t make it into this second division season. The Rhinelanders finished last season in third place and had the chance to win the last available Bundesliga ticket in the relegation play-off. However, this was lost against VfL Bochum.
As a result, Düsseldorf remain in second place. As the “best of the rest” of the previous season, Fortuna is considered one of the favorites in almost every Bundesliga promotion forecast.
But what could speak against F95’s promotion? The statistics!
Since the 2010/11 season (!), no team that has failed in the relegation has managed to gain promotion to the Bundesliga in the following season. The last team to do so was FC Augsburg in 2011.
In the recent past, FC Heidenheim, Holstein Kiel and, most recently, Hamburger SV twice missed out on promotion to the Bundesliga after losing the relegation play-off in the following season.
However, the squad should be strong enough for a promotion place. According to the market value ranking, the Fortuna team has the fifth-best value as of the end of December 2024.
However, things look a little worse in the table at first glance with 8th place after the first half of the season. However, the gap to second place is only two points at this point…
Relegation – and then?
Bundesliga promotion prediction for HSV: Will it finally work out this time?
Who else could be among the favorites for the top three places in the Bundesliga promotion prediction alongside the northern trio of Cologne, Darmstadt and Düsseldorf?
In the Bundesliga promotion prediction, Hamburger SV is a team that already had a good chance of finishing in the top three last season. In the end, the Hanseatic side only managed fourth place.
HSV have (very) narrowly failed to return to the Bundesliga six times in the last six years. Will HSV’s time of suffering finally come to an end this season?
In almost every 2nd Bundesliga season prediction, HSV is named as the favorite for promotion.
The reasons are logical: The “Rothosen” squad is in 3rd place in the market value list of all second division clubs. On paper, this should ensure promotion to the Bundesliga this season. After the 17 match days of the first half of the season, Hamburg are in exactly the same position.
However, one aspect that speaks against HSV in the 2nd Bundesliga promotion prediction is psychology.
The club has narrowly missed out on promotion to the Bundesliga six times in a row. Three times in a row in fourth place, third in the last two seasons and fourth again in the previous season.
How strongly is another failure in the promotion battle anchored in the players’ minds?
Can Hertha BSC return to the Bundesliga?
Prediction of promotion to Bundesliga 2 before the start of the season also includes Hertha BSC.
The old lady wanted to be in the promotion race last season, but didn’t really succeed. After a year of “second division air”, however, the capital city team should have become accustomed to the harsh climate of the second Bundesliga.
Cristian Fiél was the new coach and the team was also changed.
The revamped Berlin team definitely has the quality for an immediate return to the Bundesliga. According to the market value table, Hertha are number 2 in the second Bundesliga.
This is another reason why the capital city club is included in almost every promotion forecast. However, the disappointing first half of the season speaks against a Hertha BSC promotion in 2025: Only 12th place.
As is the case for many other contenders in the Bundesliga promotion forecast 2025, anything is possible for Hauptstädter! After all, Berlin go into the second half of the season just six points behind a promotion place.
Difficult 2nd Bundesliga promotion prediction: for Schalke
In many a 2nd Bundesliga promotion prediction, the name Schalke 04 crops up again and again before the start of the season.
The Royal Blues had a very bad second division season last season. At one point, the team was even on the verge of dropping into the 3rd division. However, the horror scenario was averted and Schalke are now hoping that things will go in the other direction in the 2024/25 season – namely upwards.
However, the assessments for the team actually give little reason for (too much) optimism. The Royal Blues’ squad is significantly weaker than those of the other Bundesliga promotion contenders.
In the market value table of the 2nd Bundesliga, Schalke are only in 9th place (!) before the start of the second half of the season. That would only mean a mid-table finish if the sporting situation were to turn out that way.
But what speaks for S04 in the Bundesliga promotion 2025 forecast: the fans and the fact that it is not always the top favorites with the nominally best squad who finish at the top.
In the previous season, St. Pauli and Holstein Kiel did not have the most valuable squads in the second division either, but they were still promoted to the Bundesliga in the end.
And: Schalke have already proven that a quick return to the Belle Etage of German soccer is possible: Their relegation in 2021 was followed directly by a Bundesliga return in 2022.
Who else could be a candidate for promotion?
Almost every season, a club emerges in the second division top flight that wasn’t really on the radar beforehand.
In 2020, Arminia Bielefeld surprisingly became champions, in 2021 VfL Bochum surprisingly became second division champions – ahead of the sensational team Greuther Fürth. In 2023, 1. FC Heidenheim surprisingly won the second division title. And FC St. Pauli became champions in 2024.
Who will be a surprise guest among the 2nd Bundesliga promotion favorites and candidates in this 2024/25 season?
In view of the previous season’s league positions, Hannover 96 and Karlsruher SC could be a tip in the Bundesliga promotion prediction. The duo finished fifth and sixth respectively last season.
Another team that could be a force to be reckoned with is SC Paderborn, which is considered a kind of co-favorite and insider tip by experts and bookmaker second division predictions. The same applies to Greuther Fürth.
Quite a few soccer romantics also like to name 1. FC Kaiserslautern as a contender for the top 3 in their Bundesliga promotion 2025 predictions. The “Red Devils” have a new coach in Markus Anfang, but Anfang failed to win the 3rd division with Dynamo Dresden in the previous season. Liga – and as a promotion favorite at that…
Can a promoted team make it through?
The team has already made it through from the 3rd division to the Bundesliga a total of eight times. The last time SC Paderborn achieved this was in the 2018/19 season, before that Darmstadt (2014/15).
The three promoted teams for this 2024/25 Bundesliga 2 season are SSV Ulm, Preußen Münster and Jahn Regensburg.
The chances of this trio being promoted to the Bundesliga are seen as very small before the start of the season, as the 2nd Bundesliga relegation betting odds also show.
Ulm and Münster proved in the previous season that they can finish in the top three as promoted teams. As promoted teams from the Regionalliga, they stormed to first and second place in the 3rd division and thus directly into the second Bundesliga.
Therefore, the same applies to the 2nd Bundesliga as in the lottery: anything is possible…
