NFL 2024/25: 49ers – Chiefs
The Merkur Bet Bonus is first-class, but is it the highlight of the week? No, because sports betting fans with a soft spot for American football are looking forward to the rematch of the last Superbowl.
What a cracking matchup this is! In my 49ers Chiefs prediction, I analyze the situation for you and will also look at the last duel. Because almost eight months ago, there were already plenty of successful field goals to marvel at …
In recent years, I’ve had plenty of opportunities to write about the Kansas City Chiefs – and Patrick Mahomes has almost always lived up to the expectations placed in him.
When I think back, I can almost count the number of his weak performances on one hand. Since 2018, the Chiefs have also only been underdogs 12 times in the regular season.
And now that KC is once again the underdog for once against the San Francisco 49ers, I’m sure many of you remember the heartbreaker final from last season. Will we get a worthy rematch?
Although the Chiefs don’t always play their opponents to the wall, they know how to get the points they need at the end. All I can say is that’s not the case with the 49ers right now.
San Francisco enters Week 7 with an average record of 3-3 both overall and against the spread. A pretty mixed picture, then, considering the standards the 49ers should be setting for themselves.
The games of the last few weeks have raised some questions, especially on defense, which often seems to be changed after halftime.
A big problem for the 49ers, then, is their defensive effort, which deteriorates drastically after the first 30 minutes of play!
In the second half, it ranks a disappointing 24th in terms of EPA per game and even 28th in terms of opponents’ success rate in the final two quarters.
The defense has also struggled with various injuries, especially in the secondary.
That is a real shortcoming when you have to play against the Chiefs, who are really strong in crunch time.
Kansas City ranks 3rd in the EPA per game in the second half and 2nd in games won in the final 30 minutes.
So if KC isn’t ahead before the break, be prepared for a strong finish from the defending champs.
Brock Purdy will have a tough time against the blitz-heavy Chiefs. Steven Spagnuolo’s defense ranks in the NFL’s top-10 in many important categories in this regard.
KC’s defense creates chaos with heavy pressure on the opposing quarterback, which presents a real challenge for Purdy.
He’s seen his PFF rating drop dramatically with added pressure, at 88.7 when protected and just 70.5 against the blitz (!).
As a result, the Niners’ O-Line will have to do superhuman things on Sunday to mask this weakness from their playmaker.
As we take a closer look at the Kansas City Chiefs, it’s clear that in the few instances they’ve appeared as an underdog, they have an outstanding record of 8 wins, 3 losses and 1 draw against the ‘spread’.
That is not to be underestimated! There is also another interesting fact to mention: Head coach Andy Reid is returning after a break from playing.
This is interesting because he has an impressive record of 21 wins and 4 losses in his Hall-of-Fame career immediately following a week off as head coach.
These are all good reasons why you shouldn’t believe the oddsmakers without tax and rather bet on the supposed “underdog”.
In the memorable final in mid-February, six field goals were scored in regulation time, even seven if we include the crazy overtime.
In any case, I expect many attacks to fizzle out in the opponent’s red zone and the respective kicker to be called into action.
Harrison Butker is someone who continues to play a big role in KC’s success. Against the Saints in his last appearance alone, the reliable kicker converted 4 of his 5 field goal attempts!
My final prediction for the clash between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs is: Over 3.5 field goals!
This exciting rematch of the Super Bowl final could easily go into overtime again.
An impressive 7 field goals were made in the last meeting! This shows that both offenses get stuck in the opponent’s red zone quite often, but still reliably score points.
Personally, I have used the attractive Bet365 bonus as an additional bonus to my 49ers Chiefs betting tip:
My tip: Over 3.5 field goals
