Premier League, Friday, 25.10.2024 at 21:00
The Foxes and Tricky Trees open the ninth matchday of the Premier League on Friday evening, the odds already make it clear that the outcome of the game can hardly be predicted here. The Leicester Nottingham odds are close together and I really don’t see a favorite here.
The promoted side have won their last two games and are six points clear of the relegation zone, while Nottingham have only managed one three-pointer from their last four games. In my opinion, they won’t get away without conceding a goal on Friday, but they won’t let themselves be shot down either.
Therefore, for my Leicester Nottingham betting tip at Bet365, I pick the hosts to score one or two goals.
Jamie Vardy still kicks for Leicester City, forming the top of the 4-2-3-1 system that Steve Cooper relies on. The Welsh head coach has been in charge since the summer. Vardy was part of the championship-winning team in 2016 and was also named England’s Footballer of the Year.
He is now 37 years old, has witnessed his team’s rise and fall and is still hungry, scoring three goals in his first eight Premier League games. With 20 scoring points, he also played a big part in the Foxes’ direct promotion back to the top flight.
It got off to a bumpy start, with the first three-pointer against Bournemouth (1:0) at the beginning of October, followed by a 3:2 away win against Southampton. Now the match against Nottingham is coming up and it is likely to be a very tight affair.
The visitors are ahead by a wafer-thin 2.50 according to the odds, Leicester have a 2.70 at Bet365, the draw is at 3.40, which for me is still the hottest stock of the three possibilities.
The X makes me smile, especially as half of all Nottingham matches have ended in draws and Leicester have also shared the points three times. What’s more, no team should be too upset by a draw at the end.
After two wins, Leicester would score again against a Nottingham side that has made a good start and, from Nottingham’s point of view, an away point at a promoted side that is just starting to gain momentum would not go amiss either. This is the situation before the game, without having seen which team will have how much of the game
The visitors have a little more to offer in terms of squad, but there can be no question of superiority. However, Leicester have more stability problems: 14 goals conceded in eight games and the Foxes have got away with it.
17.1 expected goals based on the quality of their opponents’ chances, one of the weakest defenses in the league on paper. The 1-0 win against Bournemouth was also the only match without conceding a goal, but statistically there could have been more than two.
Three fewer conceded than expected and around four more goals scored than the opportunities allowed, merciless efficiency. 19.4 percent of City’s shots go over the line. At around eleven percent, Nottingham still have some catching up to do.
Incidentally, Leicester scored nine of their twelve goals in the second half, with odds of 1.88 for a goal in the second half for the hosts. 1.40 for a goal to be scored in the first half, regardless of the team.
Not a bad option either, as Leicester have never gone into the break goalless in a Premier League match so far.
However, I am most enthusiastic about the bet that Leicester will score one or two goals. Not only because the statistics play a part here again, with Leicester scoring one or two goals in seven out of eight games, but also because of the expected course of the game, this should be a realistic bet.
Nottingham have done a good job defensively so far, conceding the fewest goals after Liverpool with six. Head coach Nuno Santos attaches great importance to stability. Forest were also the only team to score three against the Reds at Anfield!
The last two away games at Brighton (2-2) and in London at Chelsea (1-1) have not been enough to keep a clean sheet. Only one win has come from the last four games and Nottingham have not conceded more than two goals.
In general, very few goals are expected. For over 2.5 goals, Bet365 already offers a 2.00. A 3.50 can be dusted off with at least four goals. The over 1.5 line stands at 1.27.
Leicester and Nottingham have already played 66 matches, Nottingham won 28, Leicester 22, here too there is an even balance, in contrast to the last matches. The last time the teams faced each other was in the 2022/23 Premier League season.
City won their home game 4-0 and lost 2-0 in their reunion in the relegation season. We saw an otherwise fairly recent clash in the fourth round of the 2021/2022 FA Cup, which Nottingham won 4-1 at home.
Conclusion: Leicester have boosted their confidence with their last two victories, turning a 2-0 deficit into a 3-2 win over Southampton last week. I believe the Foxes can win the next point, the 1X odds are even above the 1.50 level.
Overall, however, the bet is too hot for me. Instead, I’m placing a bet that the Vardy squad will score one or two goals. Leicester have scored in all their games so far, with one or two goals in all but last week.
However, I don’t expect them to score three, as they did against Southampton, against the team that has conceded the second fewest goals so far.
In terms of play, however, it will be clear that the hosts want to get something worthwhile. Overall, it should be a fairly even match.
My Leicester Nottingham betting tip is therefore: 1 to 2 Leicester goals
