Serie A, Saturday, 26.10.2024 at 18:00
After the Champions League is before the Serie A! This Saturday, two teams will face each other in Italy that have already played their international matches – one with positive, the other with negative impressions.
The hosts of this game are highly interesting because of their results, which are the reason why I say: In my Bologna AC Milan prediction, everything really points to us going home with a draw!
FC Bologna played a round in 2023/24 that went down in history. The team finished fifth and is even allowed to take part in the Champions League due to a special regulation.
An incredibly great success, but at the same time it somehow came with the following certainty: it certainly won’t be repeated in the new season. The red-and-blues are struggling in both competitions.
Last Tuesday, they lost 2-0 to Aston Villa in the premier league. After the 2-0 defeat against Liverpool and the goalless draw against Shakhtar Donetsk, things don’t look good, especially since they haven’t scored a single goal yet.
But I’m now looking directly at the Serie A, because what Bologna is doing there is unique. Uniquely good or uniquely bad? Neither! An eight-game winning streak sounds dramatic, but a losing streak sounds even stronger.
The unbelievable fact is that the club has already had six draws. Bologna liked draws in 2023/24 too, recording 14 of them. Now the chase for the individual points begins again.
The only defeat was the 3-0 loss in Naples, and the only win was the 2-1 win against Monza. This also means that whenever Bologna plays a home game, the team has to settle for exactly one point at the end.
1:1 against Udinese Calcio, 1:1 against Empoli, 1:1 against Atalanta Bergamo and most recently 0:0 against Parma, not much is happening offensively either. Inevitably, I now check with Oddset what odds a 1:1 would bring on Saturday.
The value jumps to 6.75, so it’s quite profitable. Whenever Bologna scores at home, it’s the first goal. That’s also an interesting point for a bet! Taking the lead against Milan gets you odds of 2.30.
It is therefore no longer surprising that the aforementioned 0-0 draw from the CL against Donetsk was of course also achieved at home. With the injuries to Martin Erlic and Michel Aebischer, compensation must be provided in the form of at least this one point.
AC Milan is, and this is an understatement, anything but a favorite opponent. Bologna has not won in an incredible 17 games, and their last home win was in March 2002.
The fact that three of the last five matches did not have a winner is, of course, perfectly suited to what Bologna has delivered this season. Our bookmakers have certainly taken the history into account.
The average odds are 3.50 to 2.05, which puts the guests in the role of favorites. They are traveling with their chests puffed out after beating Bruges 3-1 in the Champions League.
An incredibly important victory, because before that they had suffered two defeats against Leverkusen (0-1) and Liverpool (1-3). In the Serie A, the Rossoneri had only managed to get one point out of their first three games, conceding three times and twice allowing two goals.
Things are going a bit better now, with four wins in their last five games, three of them clean sheets. Those three victories came at home at San Siro – so it’s a shame that they’re now facing an away game!
1-2 at Parma, 2-2 against Lazio, 2-1 at Inter (which, strictly speaking, was not an away game) and 1-2 at Fiorentina. When Milan go away, they don’t usually get many points.
Three times two goals conceded, once one, that can’t please the defensive lovers among you. And then there’s also the fact that Tijjani Reijnders is missing due to a red card – he was the one who scored a double against Bruges!
Bologna FC itself doesn’t seem to know whether it is satisfied with the constant draws or not. Since Milan is one of the absolute bogey opponents, I rule out a home win on Saturday.
However, I could see that the most recent direct comparison had a few draws to offer and the Rossoneri are not performing well away from home, especially defensively.
In my opinion, this means that we can confidently devote ourselves to a somewhat riskier tip, which, as you may have guessed, is:
Bologna draws again!
