La Liga, Sunday, 03.11.2024 at 14:00
Bad mood in Madrid! One club loses the Clasico 4-0, the other barely wins. I’m now looking at case number two – and this is an Atletico that is no longer compelling enough.
On Sunday, they’re up against a team below the bottom line, but at the same time, the visitors are just breaking free. So it’s an exciting affair, which I’ll now work through in my Atletico Madrid Las Palmas betting tip and tell you why you should go for the double chance 1X with a maximum of three goals.
It was only last weekend that Atletico Madrid conceded their first defeat in the league, and FC Barcelona also lost once. Why am I explicitly mentioning this connection?
Quite simply because after eleven matchdays there are already ten points between the two teams! The Colchoneros have won five times, so their win percentage isn’t even 50%.
One three from the last four league games, slip-ups against Betis Sevilla (0:1), Real Soeicad (1:1, in 14th place at the time of the game), a last-second equalizer against Real Madrid at 1:1: all this raises doubts.
Especially when I look at what the Madrilenians are up to in Europe. After the disastrous 2:1 against RB Leipzig, they were beaten 4:0 by Benfica and most recently lost 3:1 to Lille.
At least defensively things are going better in the Primera Division, with seven goals conceded, the team still has the best defense. But: despite this, five of the last six matches have seen them concede exactly one goal.
If the same thing happens on Sunday, you can win strong odds at Oddset on the assumption that Las Palmas will score exactly one goal. The value climbs to 2.70, you can also use the Oddset free bet here.
Atletico have scored ten home goals this season. That’s fine, but what’s much more interesting in my eyes is that exactly half of these goals have been scored from the 80th minute onwards. It gets even better:
In every home game in which Atletico score (with the automatic exception of the 0-0 draw against Espanyol), a goal is scored in stoppage time! There’s no question that this team is no longer dangerous until the whistle blows.
So maybe it’s worth betting that more will happen after the break? Oddset is offering odds of 2.00 for this assumption. But maybe it will also work out to repeat the recent result against Las Palmas.
Atletico won 5-0 in their last match and the two clubs have only met regularly since 2015, since when the Colchoneros have won four out of five home games without conceding a goal.
From a purely historical perspective, it is therefore not surprising that Atletico are well ahead with odds of 1.25 to 11.0. Of course, this also has to do with Las Palmas’ current situation in the table.
The visitors are bottom of the table and have lost six of their eleven games. However, they have won both of their games in the last two rounds in quick succession! First they beat Valencia 3:2, then the team celebrated a 1:0 win against Girona.
The win against Girona was a first anyway, as Las Palmas did not concede a goal for the first time ever. On the other hand, the 3-2 win against Valencia was doubly pleasing as it was won away from home.
Let’s look back: with four wins and 13 goals, Las Palmas were one of the worst away teams ever in 2023/24. This season, they started with four defeats before finally winning.
1:2 against Leganes, 0:2 at Alaves, 1:2 against Osasuna and 1:3 against Villarreal, but at least the club never went down. The squad also includes Alberto Moleiro, who has scored four times – nobody at Atletico has netted four times!
Atletico Madrid need to bounce back as quickly as possible on Sunday. Diego Simeone’s side have forgotten how to win, and their many draws in La Liga have left them 10 points behind FC Barcelona.
Las Palmas have just won twice, but overall the visitors are too weak, especially away from home, and fail to score at the Wanda. That’s why my double chance 1X is already fixed.
The Conchoneros are struggling to score goals at the moment, but they have conceded a maximum of one goal in the league. I’m therefore limiting the spectacle and backing the following combination bet:
Atletico to score a maximum of three goals
