Champions League, Wednesday, 06.11.2024 at 21:00
Brest is an absolute newcomer to the top flight and has made a remarkable start. Les Pirates are the first French newcomers to the Champions League since the 2020/2021 season and are still unbeaten in Europe’s strongest competition (2S, 1U).
Sparta Prague also made a successful start to the new CL season (3:0 against RB Salzburg), but were subsequently unable to match the quality of their rivals.
Although they managed a draw against VfB Stuttgart (1:1), they were then beaten by the overpowering Manchester City team (0:5).
In the direct clash between these two teams, I see the French representative having the advantage, even if the results in the domestic Ligue 1 no longer come close to last season’s results.
Looking at the deeper statistics, I expect a low-scoring encounter in which Les Pirates will find their feet better.
For my Sparta Prague Brest betting tip, I therefore select odds of 2.05 for a “Brest (DNB) win” at Bet365.
The bookmaker forecast
On the last league matchday, Brest were only narrowly beaten by Nice (0:1) and thus lost for the first time after five unbeaten competitive games in a row.
The French representative is considered a slight underdog by the bookmakers with odds of up to 3.15 to win, but in my opinion is a profitable target for a Winamax free bet.
Sparta Prague collected no more than 24.1 percent possession (36th) in the first three matchdays – less than any other team in the competition.
The hosts have recently been winless in two consecutive CL matches, so that odds of around 2.50 do not promise me the necessary added value.
KI prediction Sparta Prague vs Brest: ChatGPT
Before we go into further analysis, let’s take a look at three AI tips with different degrees of risk. ChatGPT first throws out odds of 1.88 at ODDSET for “Over 2.5 goals”. So far, two of the home side’s three matches have featured at least three goals, as have the visitors.
Things get interesting when we look at the second tip, which is a little riskier. The bet “Both teams to score: No” brings you double the winnings at Bwin. That would be more in line with my expected course of play and was the case in two out of three Sparta games.
The highest possible amount would be for the remaining high-risk variant of artificial intelligence. This would require a very specific course of play. We are talking about “Half-time/final score: Sparta Prague/Sparta Prague”. If the Czech representative scores another goal before the break and is more stable defensively than against Manchester City, there is potential in this tip. Tipwin provides you with odds of 3.65 in this case.
Analysis: Sparta Prague vs Brest
If Sparta Prague want to win this game somehow, they will have to deliver fireworks in the first half.
The hosts scored three of their four goals in the first period, while Brest also conceded the two goals before the break.
Because of these tendencies, I could live with an ODDSET freebet on “Sparta Prague to win the first half” at odds of 2.95.
Apart from that, Rudi didn’t convince me. With 3.8 expected goals scored and 5.2 expected goals conceded, the home side are in the bottom third of the CL participants.
In comparison with Brest, Lars Friis’ players will have to face a euphoric visiting team that approaches every game of their first CL season as if it were a final.
Les Pirates are once again trailing in Ligue 1, but are extremely difficult to play against in the top flight and have only allowed 13 shots on target in three matches.
In total, their rivals only conceded 31 shots against the French side – a top-8 figure in the competition!
Odds Analysis
Sparta Prague suffered a painful 3-1 defeat to Banik Ostrava last weekend, losing further ground on Slavia Prague at the top of the table.
The gap to the leaders is now ten points after just 13 matchdays. It was the home side’s third competitive defeat in their last four matches.
A second home defeat in a row would be another bitter setback for Lars Friis’ team, but is definitely an option for me. Brest will be traveling with the hope of a third away win (in all competitions) in a row and naturally enjoy every evening in the Champions League. From this perspective, even a “Brest win” with odds of up to 3.15 comes into question for me.
Sparta Prague vs Brest odds: Long Oats
Short passing relays, breathtaking low passing combinations or simply double passes that take the audience’s breath away – you will rarely see any of that in this duel.
Instead, the clash will be characterized by fighting and constant changes of possession. Sparta Prague have played the fewest passes so far (436), have the lowest passing percentage of all CL participants (66.6%) and have used the long ball the most (25%).
Stade Brest also had less possession on average than their opponents (48.7%) and played the most long balls in the top flight (218 long passes).
The French side have been extremely sturdy in defense so far, defending consistently and only picking two balls out of their own net as a result.
The best chance
The rest of the program in the top flight holds big challenges for both clubs. After the clash with Brest, Sparta Prague will face opponents such as Atlético Madrid and Inter Milan.
Les Pirates also have the elite of European soccer on their agenda. In addition to in-form FC Barcelona, the final matchday at the Santiago Bernabéu will be against defending champions Real Madrid.
The best chance of success in the near future for both clubs lies in this direct comparison. While Brest have lost just one of their last five competitive matches, the Czech hosts have lost three of their previous four games.
I definitely see better form from the visitors, who have rewarded their willingness to work against the ball with just 3.1 goals conceded (10th).
The number of expected goals conceded by Sparta Prague (5.2 xGA) is considerably higher, of course a considerable proportion of which comes from the comparison with Manchester City (0:5).
If you put the expected goals of Sparta Prague (3.8 xG) and Stade Brest (4.6 xG) next to each other, you will also find an advantage in favor of the guests.
In addition, the French team’s shot conversion rate is 24.1 percent. This puts Eric Roy’s players among the seven best teams in the top flight.
The home side’s shooting conversion rate is significantly lower, at 16.7 per cent, putting them pretty much in the midfield of the CL participants.
If you look at the last results of Roy’s team, the referees whistled four out of five games with “under 2.5 goals” in the match.
I think such a result with a maximum of two goals in the game is a realistic assessment. For the odds of 1.88 at Betano, I’m happy to let you talk to me.
My Sparta Prague Brest tip:
Brest defend with heart and soul, but rely on high effectiveness in their own attacking play.
Les Pirates have conceded less than 1.5 goals in each of their six previous competitive matches, which gives the French side a good chance of success in Prague.
The expected values in attack and defense speak in favor of Brest and the current form of Eric Roy’s players is also slightly better.
My Sparta Prague Brest tip: Win Brest (DNB)!
